The 18z GFS!

and at the top of the page this. Disappointing, but not too shocking. oof

Rudolph's nose will be required around KC tonight. 3rd night in a row with dense fog.

The slower run doesn't work as well for ya the moisture escapes off to your east.

NOAA: The Global Deterministics remain in good agreement that a wave of low pressure/surface reflection will eject flatly through portions of northern Indiana/Ohio Friday. A well defined, anticyclonially curved H3 jet exit region is forecasted to provide for an ageostrophic response with favorable 925-850mb, 850-700mb frontogenesis over Southeast Michigan after 12Z Fri. The first order forecast problem for the Friday system has evolved in a big way from a thermal question to one of QPF distribution and liquid equivalent amounts. The ECMWF, GFS and now RGEM control runs have been and remain in very good agreement on a hearty QPF axis (24 hrs values at or well above 0.50") through central to northern portions of the cwa. In contrast, the hires convection allowing CAMs suggest a significantly more southern solution (potentially south of Metro Detroit and the Michigan state line). The reason for the more southern CAMS solution appears tied to a convective release occurring lower down the frontal slope immediately southwest or south of the cwa. There are signs QPF could favor the 900-825mb frontal layer near Ohio/MI stateline to Lake Erie but where exactly the greatest precipitation rates occur has now become the forecast problem. Not shockingly, these same CAMS are casting doubt on the quality of moisture/saturation above 700mb across much of Lower Michigan. For reference, the NAM12 and 24.12z 3km NAM struggle to generate 0.10 of liquid equivalent north of the I 94 corridor. Even with a sharper lower tropospheric frontal surface south of Detroit, models do support a period of 290-306Ks system relative isentropic ascent over Southeast Michigan between 15-21z. One last item that will eventually need consideration is the potential for sleet to eat into freezing rain and icing mounts. Models continue the recent trend for a colder solution, with many locations now expected to remain below freezing. Given the incredible QPF and liquid equivalent uncertainty, the more desirable approach this forecast package was to continue widespread freezing rain with icing amounts of 0.10 to 0.20 inch and message widespread impacts to travel Friday morning/afternoon. For the northern Thumb and Huron county, snowfall is anticipated with 1 to 3 inches currently forecasted, again conditional to liquid equivalent. Hopefully, predictability with this system will increase.