For one, I think most people understand the difference between a "Watch" and a "Warning" and those should be used correctly.

A lot of MJO talk on the forum. How big of a deal really is all that? I feel like there are always references to teleconnections that either portend a great cold/snow stretch or a bad one and it all feels a little divorced from the actual outcomes. I'm not at all questioning the scientific basis for those measures and what they mean. But there is a big difference between saying a certain set of data suggests a slightly better/worse chance of something than the kind absolutist perspectives that can sometimes permeate here.

What do you suggest? Seems like some NWS AFDs already take a stab at communicating probabilities, but the reaction of most people is just to glaze over and say "Just tell me what the weather is going to be like!" Even some forum members react this way. The general public? Fuhgeddaboudit.

I want to believe but I just won’t until we’re talking like 5-7 days with good agreement. This winter has been the ultimate tease.

GEFS has looked cold in the long range since the end of December. But it is starting to inch closer now. This is what it looked like 2 weeks ago for this week.