Had a 5 inch sleet storm in NJ in 2007 with surface temps in the low 20s. Thin warm layer stopped what would have been a two footer.

I think I went out there in January 2022. Mid-April is gonna be NUTS!

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 325 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181215- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 325 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered light snow showers looks to persist through tonight north of I-69, leading to a dusting to one inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Snow showers Sunday night into Monday are expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Snow squalls are also possible on Monday as winds gust 30 to 40 mph. Additional localized light accumulating snow showers are possible Monday evening and night around the M-59 corridor. Dangerously cold wind chills of -5 to -15F Monday night/Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. The low level forcing with the arctic front for the end of the weekend on the other hand, will reside mostly in the DGZ. Steep low level lapse rates as we head into Monday also generates modest cape, supportive of snow squalls as the top of the boundary layer taps into stronger winds of 40+ knots. Inversion heights aoa 8 kft and model consensus indicating 24 hr qpf around tenth of an inch Sunday night-Monday supports 1-3 inches of snowfall with good snow to liquid ratios (20 to 25:1) anticipated. Narrow/small scale- convective elements also likely not being picked up properly by bulk of the solutions, which may support a few localized higher amounts as well. Local probabilistic guidance and euro ensembles both indicating peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph during the day, and a winter weather advisory may have to be considered to capture the snow and wind. Winds and snow shower coverage will gradually wane as we head into Monday evening as subsidence behind the exiting 700 MB trough/cold pool (-30 C) kicks in. None- the-less, there is a good signal (925 MB Omega) for a prolong lake effect band to set up in the vicinity of the M-59 corridor, possibly south to the I-94 corridor, per 12z NAM. Another very narrow/highly localized strip of 1-3" is in play, although tough to gauge the impacts of the very dry associated with the arctic airmass and survival of the band this far east. Surface dew pts outside of the lake plume will be aob zero, which sets the stage for subzero lows. Ultimately, will count on surface winds and enough clouds to keep temps in zero to 5 degree range for now, with minimum wind chills of -10 to -15 F.

Just a gut, but next weekend feels like it will be one of our usual 2-4 inch cold powder type deals. I do like the position of the boundary. Just not very confident on a getting moisture the way the northern steam has dominated. Would love to be wrong though.

January 2020?