Was just at home for a minute, was all snow but not sticking yet. 35 degrees. Back here at work it’s 60/40 snow/rain.

You heard it here first folks, an inch or two AT BEST on the higher hills.

Quite the write-up from MSP POTENTIAL INCREASING IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND Winds will relax Friday evening as the first storm system departs to the east across the Great Lakes. Should have a quiet period of weather through the night as high pressure settles across the region. By daybreak Saturday, focus will quickly shift to an incoming major winter storm system that aims to produce heavy snow accumulations and significant travel impacts Saturday evening - early Monday. FEATURES DRIVING THE WINTER STORM...The early beginnings of the anticipated winter storm can be seen via water vapor satellite over the Gulf of Alaska, where a subtle shortwave is currently circulating. To the south of the circulation, water vapor imagery captures a ribbon of rich Pacific moisture flowing into the the northwestern portions of the CONUS. The shortwave is progged to deepen as is slides southeast ahead of a ~160kt upper jet over western CONUS and will spawn a lee surface low on the order of lower 990s mb in the vicinity of western NE by Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, the upper level wave will have evolved into a well defined longwave trough and is progged to continue to strengthen taking on a closed negative tilt appearance over the Great Lakes. The associated surface low is forecast to track east from NE through IA into IL, before rapidly deepening into a strong 970s mb surface low as it cuts northeast and occludes over northern Michigan. As the expected evolution unfolds, a fetch of Gulf moisture will stream north and pair with the Pacific component to set the stage for a rather remarkable QPF footprint across the upper midwest. Ensemble means suggest 1-1.5" of QPF across southern MN and western WI! Given our forecast areas position to the north of the surface low, would anticipate the majority of precipitation falling in the snow bin, with only a short period where a rain/snow mix may occur at precipitation onset near I-90 Saturday afternoon/evening. PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RATES...Guidance depicts an initial band of snow developing along a remnant baroclinic zone set to span from southeastern MT to northern IA Saturday morning. Could see some light snow out of this band across southwestern MN, though the lack of synoptic forcing and dry air concerns should keep this a lower impact timeframe. Following a quiet period during the morning/start of the afternoon on Saturday, mid-level warm air advection will aid in top down saturation which will support the arrival of our longer duration snow chances. Snowfall rates will increase Saturday night as a large warm advective snow shield expands across the forecast area. The most intense snowfall rates are forecast within a band of heavy deformation precipitation that will setup early Sunday, as the surface low slides to the south of the IA/MN border. Heavy snowfall rates then continue into Sunday morning before starting to decrease from west to east through the afternoon and evening as the system departs to the east. Given the dynamic nature of the deformation band of snowfall, we anticipate that peak snowfall rates will run between 1-2"+/hr early Sunday. WINTER STORM WATCH AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...The extremely impressive QPF footprint, longer duration nature of the snowfall, and heavier rates have contributed to incredible snowfall output across the model suite. We continue to try to fine tune the details in snowfall expectations and lean on physical and machine learning ensemble means rather than subscribing to any one deterministic solution. Our forecast SLR`s generally range between 10:1-15:1. If you take the QPF referenced above and multiply by these SLR`s you get quite the snowfall range! A previous local study conducted at WFO MPX found that SLR`s are often capped around ~10:1 or so when heavy 6-hr QPF is in play. In addition, wind speeds will increase Sunday, likely fracturing dendrites in some fashion (though Sunday`s cold advection regime should support ratios climbing closer to the 15-16:1 range Sunday afternoon). Even when you factor in some of the negating factors for the highest SLR scenario, we`re still looking at quite the swath of heavy snowfall across our forecast locale. We`ve collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Winter Storm Watch that goes into effect Saturday evening and continues through Monday morning. NBM`s snow potential output illustrates at least a 70% chance of 6" of snow for all communities across the Watch box. Communities across southern MN and western wisconsin currently have ~60% chance of exceeding 12" of snow. A localized band of heavier snowfall amounts (perhaps as much as 18" or so!) will likely setup from SE MN into WI, as the surface low begins to pivot. It`s going to take a few more forecast cycles to dial in the exact track of the system and position of the heaviest band, but again current trends would point towards SE MN into WI. As with any winter storm system, the large scale pieces can seem clear a few days out, but the evolution of large scale features can result in shifts. We`ll continue to monitor shifts, but do have increased confidence in the track/placement of theoverall snow swath given support from the AIFS/machine learningsolutions. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...Strong northeasterly winds will gust upwards of 35-45 mph Sunday. The winds will combine with falling and blowing snow to create periods of blizzard conditionsacross portions of the region. Some questions remain on how "mobile" fresh snow will be given the anticipated wetter dendrite character, though with the increasing magnitude of the wind fields feel comfortable at least messaging periods of white-out conditions. Given the current track of the storm, would favor southern MN/I-90 and I-35 south of the Twin Cities as the most likely locations to observe blizzard conditions. As such, travel conditions are likely to become dangerous and travelers should consider alternate plans.

Snow hole

NWS Spokane has not dropped their afternoon disco yet.