September 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

What a great day yesterday at Oak St beach.  I saw some of the Olympians play pro V Ball which was a neat experience.  The beach was packed with people and the weather couldn't have been better.  The breeze off the lake was refreshing, with some wave action.

 

@ the map above, def looks like a wet/stormy week ahead.  After a dry stretch, I think the gardens/lawns will welcome it.  It think this is most likely the last days of the heat for the season around these parts.

 

It's about time for Pumpkin Spice Latte season!!!!

[james1976]

DMX mentions the trough and system for next weekend that Tom was talking about earlier.

Thursday through Saturday...Trough/cold front clear the state by

Thursday afternoon only to have yet another area of low pressure

move into the state by Friday. A fairly strong clipper system

pushes across the region late Friday night into Saturday.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro still on track as I expected with shifting the late period cooldown east with time. All the "firsts" of autumn still look to be running about 2 or three weeks early. Good stuff, however I'd like to see September-November actually run 1-2 degrees above average down my way to fit the analogs I have.

[Thunder98]

Eau Claire is about to get drenched!

 

 

[Tom]

The heat is on today!  A couple more days and we can say Good Bye to the heat and humidity until next year.

 

 

 

 

Severe Wx out looked  from the Plains stretching all the way towards the Northwoods,,,

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1473166337897

[Thunder98]

The heat is on today!  A couple more days and we can say Good Bye to the heat and humidity until next year.

 

 

 

 

Severe Wx out looked  from the Plains stretching all the way towards the Northwoods,,,

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1473166337897

Are you excited for winter!

[Tom]

Are you excited for winter!

Right now, I'm gearing myself up for the transition into Winter.  Not necessarily ready for Winter just yet, but I am in anticipation of seeing a decent Winter this season.  Autumn is a beautiful season around here with the color's of the trees changing, cool weather, great fishing (esp up north)...I had a great weekend out and about downtown on Saturday and we went boating yesterday.  Fantastic weather and we lucked out again with no rain on a holiday weekend.

 

The extended outlook is looking rather active and cool post 11th.  Looking forward to a stretch of days of Autumnal weather.  Might have a day or two with highs in the 60's the following week.  I think the tree's will certainly start changing color slowly if those over night lows keep dipping into the 40's.

[james1976]

Yeah im ready for the transition as well. DMX talking another powerful cold front around next Tuesday as well as the one coming up this weekend.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm definitely ready for winter! It felt like late autumn just connected to spring last year. I have had my fill of warmth for awhile.

[Tom]

Yeah im ready for the transition as well. DMX talking another powerful cold front around next Tuesday as well as the one coming up this weekend.

Indeed, both GFS/EURO on board...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090600/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090600/gfs_T2ma_us_32.png

[Tom]

12z GFS...I'd say that is just a wee bit over done...ay???

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090612/gfs_T2m_ncus_33.png

[james1976]

Nice maps Tom. Wow!

[james1976]

It would be amazing if we see some 60s/40s around here next week.

[jaster220]

12z GFS...I'd say that is just a wee bit over done...ay???

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090612/gfs_T2m_ncus_33.png

 

That's 7 am temps, correct? 12 zulu (-5 hrs for EDT?). Help, I lost my "cheat sheet" lol 

[Tom]

That's 7 am temps, correct? 12 zulu (-5 hrs for EDT?). Help, I lost my "cheet sheet" lol 

Ya, until the time change in early November, it's 7:00am instead of 6:00am later in the year.

[jaster220]

Ya, until the time change in early November, it's 7:00am instead of 6:00am later in the year.

 

Thx Tom. Then those don't seem crazy cold for early morning tbh. Compared to today though, they'd be a huge contrast ofc! if that's what was meant. 

[Thunder98]

Indeed, both GFS/EURO on board...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090600/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090600/gfs_T2ma_us_32.png

Even my area in CA will be below average according to that map

[Tom]

Today's heat and humidity is literally a struggle! After enjoying several days of cooler temps and low dew points, this is too much. I'm over it and ready for Autumnal air. Who agrees???

 

Higher Rez models are drenching the area with 1-3" of rain from training storms. Should be an interesting day/night tomorrow.

[Hawkeye]

Now that met summer is over, I'm ready for the 70s dews to be done.  In addition to the 75 dew, today was officially the first 90 degree high temp in Cedar Rapids since July 21st.

[jaster220]

Today's heat and humidity is literally a struggle! After enjoying several days of cooler temps and low dew points, this is too much. I'm over it and ready for Autumnal air. Who agrees???

 

Higher Rez models are drenching the area with 1-3" of rain from training storms. Should be an interesting day/night tomorrow.

 

Let's hope! Even I have zero use for 80º at midnight in September!  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

[Tom]

I saw this pic on social media of a rare jet stream lightning strike...I guess it could be a precursor of what the day will look like around here later today!

 

 

 

 

Overnight Flood Watches were hoisted in IA/W IL/S WI...latest HRRR showing a squall line hitting N IL in the late afternoon hours...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016090712/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016090712/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_16.png

[gabel23]

I saw this pic on social media of a rare jet stream lightning strike...I guess it could be a precursor of what the day will look like around here later today!

 

 

 

 

Overnight Flood Watches were hoisted in IA/W IL/S WI...latest HRRR showing a squall line hitting N IL in the late afternoon hours...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016090712/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_10.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016090712/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_16.png

That's an impressive pic of sprites Tom!! It's pretty amazing with what happens above a thunderstorm. 

[Tom]

Hawkeye about to get smoked by a strong line of storms. HRRR model picked this up very well.

[Hawkeye]

Hawkeye about to get smoked by a strong line of storms. HRRR model picked this up very well.

 

The heaviest stuff went south, but I did get in on some good downpours within a larger rain shield.  For now I'm at about 0.87" for the day.  Other locations around the city and area received 1-2+ inches.

[jaster220]

After the sunny, hot and dry week we just had I was actually hoping for a decent T-storm last night but alas got nada with an 80% "likely" in my grid - go figure. Ghost of June paying one last visit before the real autumn pattern reveals itself 

[Tom]

ORD officially did not hit 90F yesterday which leaves the total at 16 for the year (which is avg).  This ties the total amount of 90's over the past 2 summers combined.  It's no wonder this summer felt so much warmer.  The stifling humidity has been the culprit and stormy days which follow.  I'm so glad the high dew points are on the way out today and cooler/Canadian air can make its way in.

 

Nice 7-day...

 

[Hawkeye]

The Cedar Rapids area was smoked by two more rounds of heavy rain last night between 11pm-2am.  The north side really got hit, ending up with 3.5-4+.  My total is 2.91".  This is my third big rain event this summer.  I think the north side has had four of these events.  I love it.  I wish we could repeat this every summer.

[Tom]

The Cedar Rapids area was smoked by two more rounds of heavy rain last night between 11pm-2am.  The north side really got hit, ending up with 3.5-4+.  My total is 2.91".  This is my third big rain event this summer.  I think the north side has had four of these events.  I love it.  I wish we could repeat this every summer.

I agree with you regarding the heavy rains, they have been exciting this summer, without a doubt.  We really didn't have too many severe weather incidents locally, down state they had more tornadic activity as well as in IN.  Even parts of the Northwoods had their fair share of heavy rains.  All in all, it was a fairly active summer.  Hope the "wet" trend continues into the Fall/Winter months.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/Last3mPDeptNWSCR.png

[Tom]

Here are the latest JMA weeklies...showing both ridges off of the EC and in the NE PAC which park a trough signal in the west/central CONUS.  The pattern continues into Week 2, then Week 3 & 4 it continues with a NE PAC/NW Canada ridge and a trough into E Canada which cools the Lakes/NE region.  Too far out to get a clear idea what will happen.

[Tom]

12z GFS trying to advertise near freezing temps for parts of the Northwoods???  Probably more in line with a heavy Frost.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016090812/gfs_T2m_ncus_25.png

 

 

Here is a map of the average First Freeze and Hard Freeze...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gid/climate/frostfreeze/averagefall32.png

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gid/climate/frostfreeze/averagefall28.png

[NEJeremy]

Maybe my memory is a little short sided, but it seems like this year more than any recent summers has had busted rainfall forecasts. We again had a couple of days of likely chances of rain here and nothing really panned out this week. Also the beginning of the week there was quite a bit of talk of widespread heavy rains, but again in eastern Nebraska we didn't really see anything.

[jaster220]

Maybe my memory is a little short sided, but it seems like this year more than any recent summers has had busted rainfall forecasts. We again had a couple of days of likely chances of rain here and nothing really panned out this week. Also the beginning of the week there was quite a bit of talk of widespread heavy rains, but again in eastern Nebraska we didn't really see anything.

 

Sorry buddy, but It means your winter prospects are looking like this..

 

 

 

(j/k)

[Tom]

Cold front just making it's way through along with a burst of gusty winds.  You can see it on radar imagery if you loop it...you can see the line extend from Lake Michigan, SW into Lake/Cook/DuPage county...

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-24

[Niko]

Cold front just making it's way through along with a burst of gusty winds.  You can see it on radar imagery if you loop it...you can see the line extend from Lake Michigan, SW into Lake/Cook/DuPage county...

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-24

Hopefully, I will get some embedded thunderstorms today. Strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail is what they are forecasting for my area. I didn't get much of any thunderstorm activity this summer, so before the thunderstorm season ends, I'd like to get some action weatherwise.

 

BTW: Much cooler weather by the middle of next week. My highs are projected to be in the 60's and lows in the 40's. I would not be surprise if northern locals drop into the 30's. I think its safe to say that the 90's are pretty much done, hopefully the humidity as well.

[Tom]

Went out Salmon fishing very early this morning around 5:00am at Winthrop Harbor.  It was a cool and crisp morning, but perfect weather conditions.  My buddy landed this 30-33" (didn't take actual measurement) King Salmon roughly at 6:52am on a spoon.  Took about 5 minutes to reel her in the boat!  She put on a fight.  Due to the offshore winds, the lake had upwelled cooler waters from down below and water temp was at 66F.

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Very nice!

[clintbeed1993]

Sorry buddy, but It means your winter prospects are looking like this..

 

Snow_Nazi.PNG

 

(j/k)

 

That's literally every winter in Nebraska...

[jaster220]

That's literally every winter in Nebraska...

 

So that avatar pic is the UP of Michigan then? 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Now that's a fish on!  So, what'd you reel in again?? 

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Now that's a fish on!  So, what'd you reel in again?? 

No luck this time  ...as the water cools off, the season is getting hot.  Hope to go out a few more times this year.