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September 2017 Observations and Discussion

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#51
james1976

Posted 30 August 2017 - 03:20 AM

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DMX talking the pattern change:

It will be warm initially south Monday as well, especially based
on slower GFS timing, before a pattern change takes hold into next
week. ECMWF and GFS deterministic and ensemble solutions both
depict a decent cold frontal passage Monday, but after better
temporal agreement yesterday have again diverged somewhat on
timing with ECMWF about 6-9 hours faster. It would take awhile to
get precip going, but there may be just enough forcing for post-
frontal precip late Monday as the system moves through. Temps
should drop 10-15F from Sunday into Tuesday with the feel of a
much drier, fall-like airmass. Cycles of troughing through the
Great Lakes will keep this pattern in place through next week with
the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks strongly weighted toward both
below normal temperatures and precipitation.
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#52
Niko

Posted 30 August 2017 - 09:23 AM

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With next weeks passage of a strong CF coming through, my temps will be flirting with the 30s for overnight lows. :blink:

 

Bonfire indeed!!!!



#53
Niko

Posted 30 August 2017 - 09:28 AM

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The tropics are getting active out in the EA. Experts believe that a hurricane will be developing soon out there and heading for the Caribbean Islands and possibly affecting the SE United States. Heads up on that. Tbh, I hope it does not cross the GOM. Ofc, that all depends on how the upper level winds play out.



#54
Tom

Posted 30 August 2017 - 09:31 AM

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Frosty nights to begin the Labor Day weekend around the Lakes????

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

namconus_Td2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

 

12z GFS...not as chilly...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_13.png



#55
Niko

Posted 30 August 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Frosty nights to begin the Labor Day weekend around the Lakes????

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

namconus_Td2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

 

12z GFS...not as chilly...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_13.png

Jaster will definitely need a double blanket if the NAM verifies. Temps in the 20s to near 30F will cause him to shiver. Break out the fire wood buddy. :)


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#56
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Frosty nights to begin the Labor Day weekend around the Lakes????

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

namconus_Td2m_ncus_49.png

 

 

 

12z GFS...not as chilly...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_13.png

 

How's the NAM been on temps? I remember that it's 84-72hr range surface map(s) has to be taken with a grain of salt in the winter. Quite the little debate over at Amwx about the Euro going way extreme on d8 cold plunge as it apparently likes to do that early in the season. GFS on the other hand seems warm biased. Regardless, here's a d3 call on temps (easiest thing to get correct if you ask me), and it's showing some chilly morning lows for LDW in Marshall. Might have to close the bedroom window and stay complete under covers...brrr


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#57
Niko

Posted 30 August 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Irma poses a threat. Caribbean and SE United States should be on guard. GOM residents, hopefully,, you are outta the woods.



#58
james1976

Posted 30 August 2017 - 03:03 PM

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DMX talking about summer's last gasp and watching closely for record low highs!

Bottom line up front...
What perhaps may be Summer`s last gasp will impact us Sunday into
Monday as high temperatures may make it into the upper 80s and
perhaps even low 90s in some locations. By Tuesday and the rest of
the week, highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees (no typo), with
low temperatures making it into the 40s...with upper 30s possible
in northern Iowa.


Friday through Monday...
With a very broad area of high pressure located over the Four
Corners region, a thermal ridge has been building over the
intermountain west and pushing well into Canada. Meanwhile, a deep
upper low has been spinning off the Alaska shoreline. Several
impulses are expected to eject off the low between today and
Monday. With the Four Corners high amplifying and drifting north,
these impulses will all remain in Canada, keeping us dry through
this weekend.

In perhaps what will be the final show of warm weather for this
summer, the thermal ridge will come crashing down over Iowa Sunday
into Monday. 850mb temps should be somewhere near +20C to +25C for
Sunday afternoon, which will yield temperatures well into the 80s
for Sunday. Models then diverge very wildly on the curtain call for
thermal ridge over Iowa. A deep, broad upper low has been well-
advertised for the past several days, with the accompanying
longwave trough digging all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. At
some point on Monday, the lad cold front will be passing through
Iowa. The 12z GFS is much slower with the fropa and, resultingly,
has another day with the thermal ridge and +25C temps over
Iowa...meaning temperatures could be in the 90s. The 12z ECMWF,
however, pushes the front through during the morning hours on
Monday, leading to strong CAA throughout peak heating and
confining temperatures in the 70s and 80s. At this point, the GFS
solution seems to be the outlier, so have leaned strongly towards
the ECMWF, keeping temperatures in the 80s... this is subject to
change.


Tuesday and beyond...
Confidence continues to be high in well-below normal temperatures
and dry conditions across Iowa. The trends have been slowly
downward, with 850mb temps perhaps making it down to +5C by
Wednesday night. For the first week in September, record daily low
maximum temperatures are in the 50s, and record low minimum
temperatures are in the 30s. At this time, it appears we should be
5 to 10 degrees to warm to break those records, but we will be
watching closely.

#59
james1976

Posted 30 August 2017 - 03:04 PM

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DMX appears to be leaning toward the Euro...
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#60
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:16 AM

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Both NAM models still suggest a pretty chilly morning on Sat across the Midwest/Lakes...3km has a colder bias but both have nailed the cooler trend a couple days for the weather today/tomorrow.

 

namconus_T2m_ncus_43.png

 

nam3km_T2m_ncus_54.png



#61
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:32 AM

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Look at our low and rub it in Tom :lol: At least our turn is next week.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#62
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:37 AM

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Look at our low and rub it in Tom :lol: At least our turn is next week.

;) ...pretty soon you'll be enjoying these cooler nights/days...today, we have a stiff wind out of N/NE and a pleasant 66F/56F.

 

Saw this graphic which is new and depicts cooler temps across much of our subforum for the month of Sept...

 

 

 

DIjViOxUMAQ0TfK.jpg



#63
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 04:51 AM

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These guys are pretty good at their forecasting skills and here is their final outlook for September...

 

DIjxzQQUMAA895Z.jpg

 

 

 

Day 16-30 analog temp anomaly based off the EPS...

 

 

DIjxzLHUIAA5CjX.jpg



#64
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:28 AM

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Looking forward to a nice, refreshing cool airmass arriving tonight and especially, after LDW.



#65
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:27 AM

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These guys are pretty good at their forecasting skills and here is their final outlook for September...

 

DIjxzQQUMAA895Z.jpg

 

 

 

Day 16-30 analog temp anomaly based off the EPS...

 

 

DIjxzLHUIAA5CjX.jpg

 

Okwx will do fine if this theme can continue into the winter months. That BAM wx map keeps the way above stuff less in the SW, more in the NW states. I'm confident he'll make out well with these trends.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#66
Thunder98

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:39 AM

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It's going to be 94F on Sunday in Dickinson, ND, meanwhile at the same exactly latitude, Duluth, MN has only a high of 76F on Sunday.

 

189685d1504193679-autumn-fall-2017-threa

 

189687d1504193730-autumn-fall-2017-threa


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#67
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:46 AM

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It's going to be 94F on Sunday in Dickinson, ND, meanwhile at the same exactly latitude, Duluth, MN has only a high of 76F on Sunday.

 

189685d1504193679-autumn-fall-2017-threa

 

189687d1504193730-autumn-fall-2017-threa

Dang, that is a hot forecast. Not too shabby for ND.


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#68
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 08:29 AM

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k, totally a just for fun post here, but I knew something like this would happen sooner or later, just figured it'd be with a winter system. Since the upgrade, I've noticed the GFS mid-long range often projects the absolute "if everything under the sun aligns perfectly" scenario and runs with it :rolleyes:

 

Soooooo, this would ofc be horrible news if another major, let alone a MEGA hurricane came to the US coast after Harvey's devastation in TX. Thankfully, it's just the GFS being the GFS.. ;) (we hope-gulp)

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#69
james1976

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:00 AM

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k, totally a just for fun post here, but I knew something like this would happen sooner or later, just figured it'd be with a winter system. Since the upgrade, I've noticed the GFS mid-long range often projects the absolute "if everything under the sun aligns perfectly" scenario and runs with it :rolleyes:

Soooooo, this would ofc be horrible news if another major, let alone a MEGA hurricane came to the US coast after Harvey's devastation in TX. Thankfully, it's just the GFS being the GFS.. ;) (we hope-gulp)

GFS Super-cane 2017.png

WOW!! Well they have been watching it for a few days now.
What kind of wind would a 904 L create??😮
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#70
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:28 AM

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People in the Carribean, GOM (even westward from there, need I say Texas and Lousiana), and SE coast of the US need to really be on alert. Hurricane Irma now a CAT2. Expected to become a major Hurricane.


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#71
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 09:30 AM

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k, totally a just for fun post here, but I knew something like this would happen sooner or later, just figured it'd be with a winter system. Since the upgrade, I've noticed the GFS mid-long range often projects the absolute "if everything under the sun aligns perfectly" scenario and runs with it :rolleyes:

 

Soooooo, this would ofc be horrible news if another major, let alone a MEGA hurricane came to the US coast after Harvey's devastation in TX. Thankfully, it's just the GFS being the GFS.. ;) (we hope-gulp)

 

attachicon.gifGFS Super-cane 2017.png

:o



#72
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:28 AM

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12z Euro back to seeing a stronger frontal wave crossing the northern Plains and tracking towards the Upper GL's on Labor Day.  Remember the last time models trended stronger with this type of situation??  Might be doing the same exact thing this go around which also drives a deeper trough over the region.

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_5.png

 

 

Spins up to a monster Canadian storm south of Hudson Bay....

 

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_6.png



#73
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 10:45 AM

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In as many days during met Summer, the U.P. will open met Autumn with another Frost Advisory.  This time, sharing some real estate with its second half of the state in N MI.

 

 

 

Frost is expected tonight as temperatures drop into the mid 20s
to lower 30s
. The coldest temperatures are expected across the
interior west half of Upper Michigan and in low-lying areas.
Temperatures near the Great Lakes should not drop below 40.
 

 

 

 


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#74
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:17 PM

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In as many days during met Summer, the U.P. will open met Autumn with another Frost Advisory.  This time, sharing some real estate with its second half of the state in N MI.

 

The blue on that map could be confused with at WSWatch - haha. Seriously though, that 984mb placement is a great sign for a couple months down the pike. Nov 15th '89 was just west of that @ 964mb and bliz conditions raging across much of Mich! The morning began with 50's in Detroit and a pool of ZERO degree air just north of Superior. That was the gasoline thrown on the fire. What an early season bomb - 2nd windiest storm of my life next to Jan '78 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#75
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 12:39 PM

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Latest CPC thinking for the month of Sept....cool & dry is the theme atleast for around here...

 

off15_temp.gif

 

 

 

off15_prcp.gif



#76
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 02:45 PM

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Insanity, if it even comes close...EPS is suggesting some members of 170+ mph winds for current major Cat 3 #Irma

 

DIl3jDRW4AAzV8O.jpg


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#77
LNK_Weather

Posted 31 August 2017 - 03:05 PM

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Insanity, if it even comes close...EPS is suggesting some members of 170+ mph winds for current major Cat 3 #Irma

DIl3jDRW4AAzV8O.jpg


Either 00z or 06z GFS (forget which) advertised a minimum pressure of 885mb. That'd be nearly historic.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#78
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:18 PM

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Insanity, if it even comes close...EPS is suggesting some members of 170+ mph winds for current major Cat 3 #Irma
 
DIl3jDRW4AAzV8O.jpg


Table says 170 knots!! Was it Gilbert that had 185 sustained & 200+ gusts in the gulf? Katrina was up there too over open waters. Sure don't need this anywhere near those platforms or we will be paying 10$ a gal for gas! Would kill me with my extended commute..
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#79
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2017 - 05:57 PM

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Either 00z or 06z GFS (forget which) advertised a minimum pressure of 885mb. That'd be nearly historic.


Wilma was deepest in Atlantic @ 882, After 17 yrs, Gilbert got bumped to 2nd place @ 888. Camille was thought to be strongest but reanalysis downgraded her pressure and winds from 190 mph to 175 mph sustained. Labor Day of '35 over the Keys remains lowest baro over land and most intense landfall @ 892 followed by Gilbert @ 900 mb. So yeah, getting into "rare air" if some of these models are close!

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:54 PM

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With a trough being poised ova the midwest, that might trigger Irma  up the EC, if not more inland. Something to keep in mind.


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#81
Niko

Posted 31 August 2017 - 06:57 PM

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Wilma was deepest in Atlantic @ 882, After 17 yrs, Gilbert got bumped to 2nd place @ 888. Camille was thought to be strongest but reanalysis downgraded her pressure and winds from 190 mph to 175 mph sustained. Labor Day of '35 over the Keys remains lowest baro over land and most intense landfall @ 892 followed by Gilbert @ 900 mb. So yeah, getting into "rare air" if some of these models are close!

The funny thing with Camille, was that back then, all meteorologists were not forecasting anything about this hurricane moving up the coast. They had it going out to sea. Well, L.I got a big surprise!!! Lots of damage there as the hurricane roared in.



#82
Tom

Posted 31 August 2017 - 07:15 PM

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Canadian seeing a similar look in the N/NE PAC this month...it has certainly trended with the cold pocket N of Hawaii...

 

cansips_z500a_npac_1.png


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#83
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 03:59 AM

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Hello Meteorological Autumn!  The weather outside fits the feeling of met Fall.  Still a bit breezy, with a 59F temp and may top out at around 70F today.  The GL's are on waking up on the chilly side...

 

DIoCETuXYAE0hV5.jpg


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#84
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:49 AM

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Hello Meteorological Autumn!  The weather outside fits the feeling of met Fall.  Still a bit breezy, with a 59F temp and may top out at around 70F today.  The GL's are on waking up on the chilly side...

 

DIoCETuXYAE0hV5.jpg

 

And a gorgeous sunrise of pink clouds courtesy of blow-off from Harvey's remnants to our south. Stellar final weekend of summer on tap. Enjoy all you peeps! :D


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#85
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 04:50 AM

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Even though it will be a warm Labor Day weekend throughout the Plains/Midwest, DP's will remain comfortably in the 50's, and maybe low 60's...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_11.png

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_11.png

 

 

Labor Day...

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_15.png

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_15.png



#86
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:00 AM

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Another burst of late summer heat will make Labor Day feel like the season it is - summer. Great for those wanting to enjoy the last camping trip to the northland, and beach-n-boat fun. Wish that was me, lol..

 

In the meantime, some interior locales still at or below freezing at 9 am in the UP. That's gotta help with color changes.

 

 

 

The warm-up doesn't surprise me really. Everything has it's season, and the progress of autumn chill is always postponed until any tropical stuff plays out. Most evident was '89 which was one of the most aggressive cold autumns for the GL's but even that took a break when Hugo was taking a similar path as Irma. The lull in the cold progress doesn't mean we won't get back to that once the tropics play their cards.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#87
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:09 AM

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Another burst of late summer heat will make Labor Day feel like the season it is - summer. Great for those wanting to enjoy the last camping trip to the northland, and beach-n-boat fun. Wish that was me, lol..

 

In the meantime, some interior locales still at or below freezing at 9 am in the UP. That's gotta help with color changes.

 

attachicon.gif20170901 UP 9am temps.PNG

 

 

The warm-up doesn't surprise me really. Everything has it's season, and the progress of autumn chill is always postponed until any tropical stuff plays out. Most evident was '89 which was one of the most aggressive cold autumns for the GL's but even that took a break when Hugo was taking a similar path as Irma. The lull in the cold progress doesn't mean we won't get back to that once the tropics play their cards.

 

Agree, we may have a warm up after next weeks cool down if Hurricane Irma hits somewhere along the EC.  Mid month warmer trends???  More so, the farther west you go...

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png



#88
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:53 AM

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Sheesh!  I just took a morning stroll around my neighborhood and I didn't expect it to be that brisk outside.  My hands were cold, nose was running, and my head was cold...if it wasn't for the sunshine I prob would need a hat!  Autumn has welcomed us over here near the Lakes without a doubt.



#89
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:03 AM

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Gorgeous day out there with temps here in the Macomb, MI area holding steady at 55F. A nice cool breeze out there.



#90
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:11 AM

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I'm thinking we see an above normal September in Lincoln. There should be hot/cold swings,  but the hot will win out I think. I am going to place my money on +1.7* for the mean temperature this month.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#91
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:26 AM

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I know this in not the right location for this post and I also have it in the August discussion as well.

 

 August 2017 is now in the history books. For most of Michigan the month was cooler than average and is some locations it was the coolest August in many years. Here are some of the mean temperatures and the departure from average for several locations in Michigan. Here in Grand Rapids mean 68.7° (-2.1) coolest August since 2004. Lansing 68.0° (-1.8) Muskegon 68.6° (-1.3) Detroit 71.1° (-0.9) Flint 66.9° (-1.9) Saginaw 67.9° (-0.9) Alpena 65.7° (+0.3) the only location with above average mean. Houghton Lake 63.7° (-1.3) The Sault 64.3° (-0.3) Marquette 59.3° (-4.4) At Marquette this August was the coolest since 1992. There were no 90° days at any of the above locations in August and there more likely that not there were none in Michigan this August. There were frost at both Marquette and Houghton Lake and several other locations in Michigan this past August. 


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#92
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 06:46 AM

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Harvey has weakened considerably and believe it or not, SMI will see a little bit of Harvey. Oh, just a few passing clouds, thats all. :)


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#93
Thunder98

Posted 01 September 2017 - 08:16 AM

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Went down to a chilly 42F this morning in Eau Claire. Meanwhile in Orcutt, It's going to be very hot and humid this Labor Day weekend.

 

Attached File  EauClairedailywx.PNG   29.37KB   0 downloads

 

 


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#94
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 09:10 AM

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Went down to a chilly 42F this morning in Eau Claire. Meanwhile in Orcutt, It's going to be very hot and humid this Labor Day weekend.

 

attachicon.gifEauClairedailywx.PNG

Down to 43F here in SEMI and LDW is going to be quite warm here as well. Temps might be pushing mid 80's. Tbh, not sure if that will be near record high temp.


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#95
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:25 AM

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It'll be interesting to see how the trough swinging through picks up or steers Hurricane Irma.  Occasionally, storms as such can phase into a big trough somewhere in the East.  I think Sandy did that a while back and I remember days upon days of Northeast winds and chilly weather.  The way the pattern has acted lately, we may have another blocking HP that would allow a similar solution.


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#96
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:32 AM

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If Irma misses the trough and wanders into the Gulf, it could be like a modern day Andrew across southern Florida all over again.
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#97
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:36 AM

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If Irma misses the trough and wanders into the Gulf, it could be like a modern day Andrew across southern Florida all over again.

Lot's of options on the table for sure, but oddly enough, the 00z EPS members from last night trended towards the GEFS believe it or not.  We'll see how the models trend over the next few days.


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#98
Niko

Posted 01 September 2017 - 10:58 AM

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andros-map-lrg.jpg

My Summer Greek Island I go too. This is the spot to be.

 

maxresdefault.jpg ;)


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#99
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:06 AM

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12z Euro trending towards the GFS solution all along and a possible major Cat 4 or 5 storm along the SE Coast...

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png



#100
Tom

Posted 01 September 2017 - 11:10 AM

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12z Euro with a Cat 5...holy crap!

 

DIqRsayXYAEuSId.jpg


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