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First Flake of Snow Contest

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#1
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:06 PM

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It's that time of year when anticipation is brewing and the seasons are changing.  One of my favorite times of year are on the horizon.  When will we see our first flakes of snow???  We have never done this before so I figure...why not???

 

Given the size of this forum, in order to make this a bit more challenging and broad in coverage, I have chosen several big cities in various parts of our sub forum.  Basically, it's pretty simple.  Provide your best idea on when these cities below will have their official first flake of snow...down to the date and time of day.  By the end of November, the winner will be whoever comes closest to any city that has recorded their first flake.  If for some odd reason, no city achieves their first flake by then, we will extend it into December.  I'm almost certain there will be a city in our sub forum that achieves their first flakes by end of November.

 

Here are the list of cities:

 

1) Chicago, IL

2) Minneapolis, MN

3) Omaha, NE

4) Des Moines, IA

5) Oklahoma, OK

6) Detroit, MI

7) Milwaukee, WI

 

 

If anyone else has any suggestions, I'm all ears....

 

Good luck!

 

 

Deadline: Oct 15th 11:59 pm


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#2
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:04 PM

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Chicago: November 23, 9:34am

Minneapolis: November 13 5:35am

Omaha: November 16 10:15am

Des Moines: November 16 6:59pm

OKC: December 28, 2:01am

Detroit: November 18 8:32am

Milwaukee: November 14 3:57pm


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#3
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:08 PM

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Chicago: November 23

Minneapolis: November 13

Omaha: November 16

Des Moines: November 16

OKC: December 28

Detroit: November 18

Milwaukee: November 14

Can you edit your answers and put a time of day as well just in case somebody else chooses the same date.  That way it is more specific.  For instance, 12:00pm



#4
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:15 PM

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1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

:D


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#5
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:19 PM

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3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am


Why do you hate us?
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#6
Niko

Posted 01 October 2017 - 03:28 PM

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Why do you hate us?

:lol: No offense...I hope I am wrong, but, gotta go with my gut here.

 

Btw: If I am a winner, Tom should write me a nice check. :P ;)


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#7
westMJim

Posted 01 October 2017 - 05:26 PM

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For what it is worth here is my guess. By no way a forecast

 

 Chicago Nov 22 7:30 AM

Minneapolis, MN Oct 27th 9 AM

 Omaha, NE Oct 15th 3AM

Des Moines, IA NOV 20TH 6AM

Oklahoma, OK  Dec 13th 2 PM

Detroit, MI Nov 23rd 4AM

Milwaukee, WI Nov 19th 5PM


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#8
Tom

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:40 PM

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:lol: No offense...I hope I am wrong, but, gotta go with my gut here.

 

Btw: If I am a winner, Tom should write me a nice check. :P ;)

It's something I will consider doing for the winner.  It all depends on how my finances are at the end of the day... B)


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#9
snowstorm83

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Newbie is going to play!

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (10:32 pm)
Omaha: Nov 10 (7:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 10 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 21 (10:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 21 (11:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 2 (10:46 pm)


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#10
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 05:08 AM

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It's something I will consider doing for the winner.  It all depends on how my finances are at the end of the day... B)

Just joking with ya. Its all fun in this! :D ;)



#11
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2017 - 07:48 AM

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..and I normally shy away from these contests even though I love snow and winter.

 

Nonetheless, gonna take a stab:

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)
Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

 

Oh, and with these being large metro areas, snow could fall in some parts and miss others. Might want to clarify the exact site locations as well as what "officially" qualifies as "first flakes". NWS recording of a "T", or social media photo posted of a car top duster, etc..


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 11.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 11.4 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" โ€œand to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day offโ€  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#12
Tom

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:14 AM

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..and I normally shy away from these contests even though I love snow and winter.

Nonetheless, gonna take a stab:

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)
Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

Oh, and with these being large metro areas, snow could fall in some parts and miss others. Might want to clarify the exact site locations as well as what "officially" qualifies as "first flakes". NWS recording of a "T", or social media photo posted of a car top duster, etc..

 

Edit:

 

I like your technical thinking. Let's go with the first flakes being categorized as the official site recording station. It's more accurate in terms of pinning down the time of day with which flakes will fly.


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#13
NEJeremy

Posted 02 October 2017 - 09:16 AM

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1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

:D

 

 

Why do you hate us?

 

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


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#14
Niko

Posted 02 October 2017 - 10:29 AM

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:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

@ NEJeremy,

 

That reverse psychology I did might do the trick for you guys this Winter and give ya a lot of snow.  ;) 


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#15
NEJeremy

Posted 02 October 2017 - 12:33 PM

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Chicago: 10/28 3:08 am
Minneapolis: 10/27 8:24 pm
Omaha: 11/15 10:32 pm
Des Moines: 11/10 4:25 am
Oklahoma City: 12/19 2:34 am
Detroit: 11/2 9:45 am
Milwaukee: 10/28 12:05 am


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#16
NebraskaWX

Posted 02 October 2017 - 01:01 PM

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Chicago: 11/02 7:04 a.m.

Minneapolis: 11/01 10:28 p.m.

Omaha: 03/01/2019 1 a.m. (a passing flurry)

Des Moines: 11/24 11:12 a.m.

Oklahoma City: 12/21 8:25 p.m.

Detroit: 11/04 9 a.m.

Milwaukee 11/02 12:30 a.m.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#17
Andrew NE

Posted 02 October 2017 - 01:07 PM

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1) Chicago, IL : 11/07 4:18am

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/28 9:15pm

3) Omaha, NE : 11/21 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/21 11:50pm

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/13 8:30pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/03 6:18am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/01 3:28am


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#18
gimmesnow

Posted 02 October 2017 - 02:09 PM

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1) Chicago, IL: 11/28

2) Minneapolis, MN: 11/16

3) Omaha, NE: 12/8

4) Des Moines, IA 11/27

5) Oklahoma, OK: 12/18

6) Detroit, MI: 11/5

7) Milwaukee, WI: 11/27

 

Let the pessimism run through you ;)


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#19
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 02 October 2017 - 08:03 PM

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Gonna take a wild stab, these are just guesses, I've looked at literally 0 forecasts for this winter.

 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/15 11:15pm

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/27 6:15am

3) Omaha, NE : 11/8 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/9 8:00am

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/8 5:15pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/14 2:35am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/4 7:30pm


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2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#20
jaster220

Posted 03 October 2017 - 03:52 AM

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:lol: Hope Tom likes crunching numbers and sorting data! Gonna have his hands full sorting out the winner, he is.. :blink:
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#21
Tom

Posted 15 October 2017 - 04:55 AM

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Just a reminder, today is the deadline to submit your best guess for our contest.  Might be a good idea to tweek your ideas if you feel that is necessary.



#22
jaster220

Posted 15 October 2017 - 05:45 AM

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Edit:

I like your technical thinking. Let's go with the first flakes being categorized as the official site recording station. It's more accurate in terms of pinning down the time of day with which flakes will fly.

Thinking about this again, since time of day is part of the criteria equation, will you be using the hourly (or sub-hrly) site data to determine who's closest?

I know it's just for fun & a 6-pack, so we'll let you sort all that out. Oh, and I still like my calls for the record.

#23
Tom

Posted 15 October 2017 - 05:49 AM

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Thinking about this again, since time of day is part of the criteria equation, will you be using the hourly (or sub-hrly) site data to determine who's closest?

I know it's just for fun & a 6-pack, so we'll let you sort all that out. Oh, and I still like my calls for the record.

TBH, I think we should just roll with the hourly reports.


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#24
Tom

Posted 15 October 2017 - 12:34 PM

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I'm expecting an early taste of Winter for many on here and you will see that in the dates below.  Based on what I've looked at and my gut feelings about this season, Winter is coming early.  So, with that being said, here are my dates:

 

1) Chicago, IL:   10/30 3:33am

2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm

3) Omaha, NE:  11/6 5:55pm

4) Des Moines, IA:  11/1 11:11pm

5) Oklahoma, OK:   11/28  4:44am

6) Detroit, MI:  10/31 6:00am

7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am



#25
jaster220

Posted 15 October 2017 - 12:40 PM

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Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)[/size]Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)[/size]Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)[/size]Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)[/size]Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)[/size]Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)[/size]Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)[/size]


I'm expecting an early taste of Winter for many on here and you will see that in the dates below. Based on what I've looked at and my gut feelings about this season, Winter is coming early. So, with that being said, here are my dates:

1) Chicago, IL: 10/30 3:33am
2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm
3) Omaha, NE: 11/6 5:55pm
4) Des Moines, IA: 11/1 11:11pm
5) Oklahoma, OK: 11/28 4:44amv
6) Detroit, MI: 10/31 6:00am
7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am

Smart, waiting til last day..๐Ÿ˜™, and you're earlier than me except for MSP

#26
Niko

Posted 15 October 2017 - 06:25 PM

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I wonder who will win?! :unsure:



#27
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 October 2017 - 10:42 PM

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Wow lots of early predictions for Omaha! Bring it!


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 October 2017 - 11:58 PM

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I think we all run 2 weeks early on snow but didn't want to try to pin the days down as I'm historically bad at that. Lol.
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#29
Tom

Posted 16 October 2017 - 04:12 AM

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Here are everyone's Final answers:

 

LNK-Weather

 

Chicago: November 23, 9:34am

Minneapolis: November 13 5:35am

Omaha: November 16 10:15am

Des Moines: November 16 6:59pm

OKC: December 28, 2:01am

Detroit: November 18 8:32am

Milwaukee: November 14 3:57pm

 

Niko

 

1) Chicago, IL----------------Nov 15th, 5:00pm

2) Minneapolis, MN--------- Oct 29th, 10-:00pm

3) Omaha, NE----------------Dec 18th, 2:30am

4) Des Moines, IA------------Nov 2nd, 12:05pm

5) Oklahoma, OK------------ Dec 30th, 1:23pm

6) Detroit, MI----------------- Nov 17th, 2:30PM

7) Milwaukee, WI------------ Oct 30th, 8:00pm

 

WestMJim

 

Chicago Nov 22 7:30 AM

Minneapolis, MN Oct 27th 9 AM

 Omaha, NE Oct 15th 3AM

Des Moines, IA NOV 20TH 6AM

Oklahoma, OK  Dec 13th 2 PM

Detroit, MI Nov 23rd 4AM

Milwaukee, WI Nov 19th 5PM

 

Snowstorm83

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (10:32 pm)
Omaha: Nov 10 (7:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 10 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 21 (10:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 21 (11:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 2 (10:46 pm)

 

 

Jaster

 

Chicago: Nov 14 (11:04 pm)
Minneapolis: Oct 24 (6:32 am)
Omaha: Nov 7 (6:24 am)
Des Moines: Nov 8 (6:10 pm)
Oklahoma City: Dec 4th (3:33 am)
Detroit: Nov 23 (3:47 am)
Milwaukee: Nov 14 (11:46 pm)

 

NEJeremy

 

Chicago: 10/28 3:08 am
Minneapolis: 10/27 8:24 pm
Omaha: 11/15 10:32 pm
Des Moines: 11/10 4:25 am
Oklahoma City: 12/19 2:34 am
Detroit: 11/2 9:45 am
Milwaukee: 10/28 12:05 am

 
NebraskaWx
 

Chicago: 11/02 7:04 a.m.

Minneapolis: 11/01 10:28 p.m.

Omaha: 03/01/2019 1 a.m. (a passing flurry)

Des Moines: 11/24 11:12 a.m.

Oklahoma City: 12/21 8:25 p.m.

Detroit: 11/04 9 a.m.

Milwaukee 11/02 12:30 a.m.

 
AndrewNE
 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/07 4:18am

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/28 9:15pm

3) Omaha, NE : 11/21 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/21 11:50pm

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/13 8:30pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/03 6:18am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/01 3:28am

 

 

Gimmesnow

 

1) Chicago, IL: 11/28

2) Minneapolis, MN: 11/16

3) Omaha, NE: 12/8

4) Des Moines, IA 11/27

5) Oklahoma, OK: 12/18

6) Detroit, MI: 11/5

7) Milwaukee, WI: 11/27

 

 

NWLinnCountyIA

 

1) Chicago, IL : 11/15 11:15pm

2) Minneapolis, MN : 10/27 6:15am

3) Omaha, NE : 11/8 10:30pm

4) Des Moines, IA : 11/9 8:00am

5) Oklahoma, OK : 12/8 5:15pm

6) Detroit, MI : 11/14 2:35am

7) Milwaukee, WI : 11/4 7:30pm

 

Tom

 

1) Chicago, IL:   10/30 3:33am

2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm

3) Omaha, NE:  11/6 5:55pm

4) Des Moines, IA:  11/1 11:11pm

5) Oklahoma, OK:   11/28  4:44am

6) Detroit, MI:  10/31 6:00am

7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am

 

 

Let it Snow!

 

 

 
 

 


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#30
Niko

Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:49 PM

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and the winner is.......... ;)



#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 October 2017 - 10:54 AM

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I can't believe that Omaha may actually get the first flakes in this entire thread.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#32
jaster220

Posted 20 October 2017 - 11:49 AM

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I can't believe that Omaha may actually get the first flakes in this entire thread.

 

Would be a great sign me thinks.. ;)



#33
Niko

Posted 20 October 2017 - 11:53 AM

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I can't believe that Omaha may actually get the first flakes in this entire thread.

That would be great! I hope you guys out there score big-time this winter with tons of snow. ;)



#34
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 20 October 2017 - 12:57 PM

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12z GFS showing Omaha's first snow next Friday!


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#35
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 October 2017 - 01:27 PM

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I think this contest will be over come next weekend. Whether it be OMA, DSM, or MSP... We'll find that out later.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#36
Niko

Posted 20 October 2017 - 04:16 PM

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I think this contest will be over come next weekend. Whether it be OMA, DSM, or MSP... We'll find that out later.

Should be interesting to see who wins!



#37
gimmesnow

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:36 AM

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I have the best plan. If I'm wrong, I get snow early, and if I'm right, I win. I can't lose! And it looks like I might end up being very wrong, forecasts are already teasing first flakes next week for me in SE Wisconsin.


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#38
Tom

Posted 21 October 2017 - 09:56 AM

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I have the best plan. If I'm wrong, I get snow early, and if I'm right, I win. I can't lose! And it looks like I might end up being very wrong, forecasts are already teasing first flakes next week for me in SE Wisconsin.

No kidding, I may have to change this contest to the city that gets their 1st inch of snow!  It's all good fun anyway but if the models continue with the trends they are showing, it may even be more wintry than I initially thought.


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#39
jaster220

Posted 21 October 2017 - 10:37 AM

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Is it first city to get snow, or person who gets the most cities correct??

#40
Tom

Posted 21 October 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Is it first city to get snow, or personal who gets the most cities correct??

Good question. It will be whoever gets the most cities. More challenging.

Edit: Part of the reason why I said by end of Nov is when the contest ends.
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#41
Niko

Posted 21 October 2017 - 12:57 PM

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Good Luck Y'all ........ ;)


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#42
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 October 2017 - 01:09 PM

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Looks like it may be a short contest.

#43
jaster220

Posted 21 October 2017 - 05:21 PM

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Looks like it may be a short contest.


"So, you're saying there's a chance?" (of not having to wait til Feb for the last site to finally score flakes)
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#44
Tom

Posted 27 October 2017 - 04:57 AM

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If anyone can get a time stamp on when MSP reported it's first flakes it would be appreciated.



#45
NebraskaWX

Posted 27 October 2017 - 08:56 AM

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Looks like Omaha just wrecked a whole bunch of people's predictions :D

 

 

Attached Files


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#46
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:02 AM

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Looks like Omaha just wrecked a whole bunch of people's predictions :D

 

 

Tom

 

1) Chicago, IL:   10/30 3:33am

2) Minneapolis, MN: 10/27 7:47pm

3) Omaha, NE:  11/6 5:55pm

4) Des Moines, IA:  11/1 11:11pm

5) Oklahoma, OK:   11/28  4:44am

6) Detroit, MI:  10/31 6:00am

7) Milwaukee, WI: 10/30 4:00am

 

Attached File  default_clap.gif   1.22KB   0 downloads Congrats Tom! Looks like you edged my guess out by about 11.5 hrs (11/7 @ 6:24 am)



#47
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 04:01 AM

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Need to check Chicago off the list and get the official time for our first flurries earlier this morning.  Local mets on TV put up some graphics of our First Snow of the season.  Average date for ORD's first flakes are Oct 30th.



#48
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2017 - 06:15 AM

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Need to check Chicago off the list and get the official time for our first flurries earlier this morning.  Local mets on TV put up some graphics of our First Snow of the season.  Average date for ORD's first flakes are Oct 30th.

So, was there 3 sites then that had their 1st flakes?

OMA
ORD
MSP

This has really come on strong!
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#49
Tom

Posted 28 October 2017 - 06:29 AM

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So, was there 3 sites then that had their 1st flakes?

OMA
ORD
MSP

This has really come on strong!

From what I have seen, looks about right.  I think Detroit also had their first flakes this morning according to what Niko said and I noticed the radar had some snow returns.


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#50
VMB443

Posted 28 October 2017 - 07:13 AM

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From what I have seen, looks about right.  I think Detroit also had their first flakes this morning according to what Niko said and I noticed the radar had some snow returns.


Nothing here in Milwaukee yet, some cold light drizzle this morning I was hoping would mix some flakes in but no dice.