East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Had well over 2" last night. Radio said 2 1/2"...There was a report of 2.5" in Dubuque, but the official report for Dubuque was 1.4".. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 + Tony, complete bust with last Saturday's system. I think it had less than .10qpf for ORD! LOL Anyway, I like what I'm seeing in the trend for the models. Showing some decent qpf totals that may warrant an advisory for this afternoons disco's.On another plus side(as Geos mentioned) when you have the GFS wetter than the NAM that has to be a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wow, Euro would be complete weak sauce. But as someone had mentioned, it's been off this year, especially with clippers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'd imagine the precip shield is going to be much wider than what the Euro is showing. You have to make a human judgement when looking at what the general trend has been on all the models. This looks like it could be a decent event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 MKE issued WWA for the county directly west and directly south maybe squeak 3" outta this baby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_045_precip_p36.gifThe 6z showed this as well so maybe the hi-res model is onto something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 WW Advisories going up... 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z NAM...I'd expect WWA to be issued in N IL as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 i dont like being on the southern fringes of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Darn, tonights clipper is going to my north. My guess is little to no snow again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 WWA just to my north. hope it gets expanded south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 looking at the radar it looks like most of it will miss me unless it develops south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 my forecast just got lowered to "around and inch tonight" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'm in for 1-3" in my forecast. That northern cutoff is really sharp... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 DVN with 2-3"... LAX has 3-5" for me and a local met has the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z GFS...still robust in IA/SW Wisco... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z GFS...still robust in IA/SW Wisco... Judging by the radar and direction of travel it is taking the northern route. I think Madison is looking good also. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 RGEM not all too thrilling... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 im in a WWA but the far southern edge of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 And then, skilling just tweeted 2-4 ..lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 sure looks like this puppy is coming in a tad north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 sure looks like this puppy is coming in a tad north Definitely Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Aghhhh!!! Models suck with these dang clippers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 So this will just die as it heads into SEMI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 looks way north...im thinking 1-2 for me if that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 So this will just die as it heads into SEMI? Supposed to. --- This has Madison and Milwaukee written all over it. Racine will probably do better than here. NE Iowa is going to have to fill in otherwise those advisories are overkill. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 we pry end up with less snow than last night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 we pry end up with less snow than last night What's going on there now? Thinking that the WAA is stronger than predicted and is forcing the snow further north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Milwaukee just added Sauk, Dane and Rock Counties to the advisory. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Can't complain. Areas of southern Wisconsin have been left out multiple times this winter. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Clipper is supposed to jog SSE and you can see that starting to happen on the back end of the snow shield near SD. You can see that the snow shield isn't going farther north of Rochester, MN and from there draw a line towards Madison, WI. LOT mentioned the HP to the north will push it south. The next few hours we should start seeing this if this holds true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 From early looks at the HRRR model it seems like main precip shield stays north of border and we get clipped but trends next few hours will be interesting.Towards early morning it does show that SSE jog you got a good point Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 00z NAM...shows the dip southeastward... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 6" in northeast Iowa isn't happening. The radar would have to start blossoming right now there. Right now it looks like it is traveling the purple line I drew with the pivot point being the red line. My workplace in Racine should get more than here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just depends whether it sinks south like Tom is mentioning. If it starts to head basically SE like the NAM is showing, rather than ESE, then I like my chances, but if it continues the way it is, then this baby is gonna be a bust! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just depends whether it sinks south like Tom is mentioning. If it starts to head basically SE like the NAM is showing, rather than ESE, then I like my chances, but if it continues the way it is, then this baby is gonna be a bust! You would want that shift before the pivot point passes over you. Definitely a bust for James. Newest graphic from ARX Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Going to be a dud here in Cedar Rapids. Just too far north. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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