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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

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#1
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:12 AM

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There is likely going to be a storm moving through the area this weekend.

Lots of questions to be answered regarding the track and thermals, as the models are still all over the place.

I am on my phone, so I can’t post pictures. Someone else can share some pictures of the most recent runs, if you’d like.

#2
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Pretty good spread between the models on where this storm is headed..

12z GFS & Icon are fairly close, taking it through NE Kansas & Missouri, and then heading right towards the Chicago area, more or less.

12z Canadian rips it right through central Iowa up into Minnesota.

12z Euro is yet to run, but the 00z took it through NE Iowa.

Pretty big spread for a storm that’s schedule to be in the Panhandle area in about 80 hours.

#3
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:41 AM

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This is a very odd storm. I think the models are having a hard time dealing with the different factors. Wpc definitely seeing something but what I have no idea lol.

#4
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:44 AM

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GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous.
Is this thread for both storms?

#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:44 AM

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So far today it looks like the GEM and Fv3 are fairly similar to last nights Euro with a north/west solution, while the GFS is south. Someone said the Ukie from last night was south as well.

#6
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:45 AM

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GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous.
Is this thread for both storms?


I just intended for this thread to cover the first storm, as combining the two could start to get kind of confusing.
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#7
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:45 AM

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GFS appears to be trending colder. 2nd storm looks more ominous.
Is this thread for both storms?


Lots going on that for sure.

#8
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Ukie was pretty south as of yesterday

#9
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:49 AM

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Attached File  GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif   153.72KB   7 downloadsUkMet the furtherst S at HR 96.


2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#10
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:51 AM

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What the Ukie does under 100 hrs is a pretty good (though not always) idea which way the Euro will trend. 


2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#11
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:59 AM

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I just intended for this thread to cover the first storm, as combining the two could start to get kind of confusing.

I'm down with that

#12
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:01 AM

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What are the teleconnections like? Anything to stop it from going way north?

#13
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:03 AM

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12z fv3 looks very heavy with snow at 96 here.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#14
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Wow fv3 goes ape s**t over nebraska!
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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#15
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:05 AM

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12z FV3-GFS is a little further NW than the GFS. Takes the low to Southern Iowa/N Missouri and then through SE Iowa.

Seems to have more cold air wrapped in than the GFS.

Both of them really seem to have the storm weaken as the SLP starts to approach the eastern part of Iowa.

#16
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:08 AM

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12z FV3-GFS is a little further NW than the GFS. Takes the low to Southern Iowa/N Missouri and then through SE Iowa.

Seems to have more cold air wrapped in than the GFS.

Both of them really seem to have the storm weaken as the SLP starts to approach the eastern part of Iowa.

Might be on to something as the regular GFS is trending colder. Overall it seems models are trending colder. Good sign
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#17
GDR

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:09 AM

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Wow fv3 goes ape s**t over nebraska!

blows up northwest half of iowa
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#18
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:11 AM

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--- YEP --If we have learned anything this young Winter; #1 things trend South. #2 Do not trust the FV3-GFS or even the GFS. The GFS flip-flopped not once, but twice on the past system within 4-5 days.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#19
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:14 AM

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Gfs may have bloen the last system, but its still a good model.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#20
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Yeah that's crazy on the fv3 but looks like a Souix city storm.
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#21
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:43 AM

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Yeah that's crazy on the fv3 but looks like a Souix city storm.

 

Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain.

 

Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs :) 


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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~5" (as of 11/27/18) 

 

 

 

 

 


#22
Tony

Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:48 AM

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Yep. Honestly I don't know what to believe at this point. Though Chicago got the storm last time, I still ended up with less than you guys out in Nebraska did, despite the models saying the WAA would be overtaken even downtown. Needless to say, just be thankful that it's showing A STORM. I can't believe how in this day in age the weather models are still just so bad. Then again, where would the fun be if they were accurate all the time? So I guess I can't complain.

 

Anywhoozers, I think the models are overdoing the WAA on this one. No shot that with the snowpack we have down from the Plains eastward that it will go THAT far north. I think Nebraska is sitting pretty with this one, hopefully it turns into a bowling ball and gives us all a good storm in the coming runs :)

With really no deep High pressure to the north anything is a possibility on this one. As far as the low level cold due to the snow pack, I believe that freezing rain might be a good possibility for areas that are supposed to see rain and maybe snow/sleet on the onset. Still too early to tell what's going to transpire as changes will be coming.


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#23
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:01 AM

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I got a feeling this storm is going to come down to 84 to 72 hour model runs.
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#24
GDR

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:08 AM

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I’m waiting for Tom and his magnet to come into full force in future runs!

#25
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:14 AM

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I’m waiting for Tom and his magnet to come into full force in future runs!

 

He does seem to have the hot hand so far..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#26
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:15 AM

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I got a feeling this storm is going to come down to 84 to 72 hour model runs.

Or be like the last one and come down to 6 hour runs.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#27
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Or be like the last one and come down to 6 hour runs.


Very true

#28
Tony

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:24 AM

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attachicon.gifGZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gifUkMet the furtherst S at HR 96.

Ukie has had the far southern route for the past 3 runs now. Curious to see what the future runs will show.



#29
Stormhunter87

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:32 AM

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If the cold air is able to be tapped the JMA has a crazy good track for Eastern Nebraska
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#30
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:39 AM

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The euro decided to give up for the day at hr 48 lol
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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:48 AM

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The euro decided to give up for the day at hr 48 lol

Froze at 6 for me. What's going on?


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#32
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Froze at 6 for me. What's going on?


Storm is so big the computer can’t even process it.

#33
Tony

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Froze at 6 for me. What's going on?

Trump tweeted about how much better he could do if he had control of this model so they are pulling out of North America!!


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#34
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:58 AM

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Even a blank run of the Euro is better than the GFS and its shiny new upgrade.
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#35
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Haha you guys are comedy 😂
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#36
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#37
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:11 AM

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LOL sureeee
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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#38
jcwxguy

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:13 AM

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Up to hour 72 on Tropical tidbits

#39
East Dubzz

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:13 AM

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HR 72 finally loaded. Hopefully the rest of it will get going now.

#40
jaster220

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:17 AM

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Euro is showing 30" bullseyes over Chicagoland, Jackson, MI, E MI just North of Detroit, St. Paul, East Dubuque, Lincoln, Omaha, Aplington, Des Moines, and Warrensburg. Dusting for everywhere else. My private model server is showing it for me.

 

LOL - got me!  Delete the extra zero for a proper correction


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#41
Iowawx

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:24 AM

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12Z GFS has 6 inches of snow for Cedar Rapids on Saturday. Not totally sure I believe that because of the rain that falls before the cold air moves in. Something to keep an eye on however. 



#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:29 AM

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Only out to hr 24 on weathermodels, but I looked at the MSLP map on Tropical Tidbits and it looks to take a St. Joe track then cut sharp North from there. If temps are cold that would be a perfect track for here. It'd suck for everyone else on this board but it'd be good for here. We'll see what the precip looks like when it gets into weathermodels range.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#43
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Hr 120 it’s in central IA at 994mb. Colder run.

#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Euro is still garbage for here despite my last post. Rain rain rain. Only positive is it is starting to KIND OF pick up the second wave. Not showing much though.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#45
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:46 AM

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Through Sunday night.

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#46
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Tracking thru C IA would suck for mby!

#47
james1976

Posted 27 November 2018 - 11:54 AM

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Well the trends are looking better and more south anyway.

#48
GDR

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:02 PM

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This has Chicago monster written all over it

#49
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:05 PM

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Appears more south than previous Euro runs.  Having 2 different storms might be adding to models having some differences.  Every storm is unique, it has been fascinating watching so far this year.  At least there is something to track compared to the minimal chances of the past few years.


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#50
St Paul Storm

Posted 27 November 2018 - 12:06 PM

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Yup. Euro is making big trends south the last 3 runs. Wash, rinse and repeat.