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12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm


East Dubzz

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@Nebraskans. 
 

 

You guys are gold. I can feel it. This is your storm-- I honestly have said all along this year will be a 2009 repeat and this would resemble it almost perfectly with that storm we had early December of that year. I think this thing moves south last second and destroys you. Gut feeling on this one boys! 

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It will be interesting to read the afternoon discos. NWS Hastings was talking this morning how the Euro had moved south over the last couple of days and with the latest south movement, it will be fun to see what they think.

Judging by that OAX graphic I'm guessing one of the less conservative mets is on duty so that one will be interesting.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Winter storm watches already out for the Sioux City area. On the Nebraska side OAX calling for 6-9" of snow with more later in the weekend......

 

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow, which could be heavy at times. Accumulations of 6
to 9 inches possible through Saturday afternoon. Additional
snowfall is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds
increasing from the north at 15 to 25 mph will result in blowing
and drifting snow.

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Something I'm noticing from all the models is that they are growing stronger with the Ridge just south of Hudson Bay which was a key component with the previous Blizzard we tracked.  Not saying this will have an abrupt shift south, but those of you out in NE/IA and even into WI are still in the game.  Over the last 24 hours, the EPS 2"  snow mean has shifted south across NE and so has the jack zone (6"+) across NE and into N IA.

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Weird thing is the NAM actually went further north this run. Just has some more cold air wrapped in.

 

What a weird look to the rain/show shield at HR 72.

Occluding low's have a tendency to produce their own cold air so I'm not surprised to see these trends in the model today.  The 12z Euro also trended colder across IA.  This is def something to keep an eye on going forward.

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NAM being a funny guy to SPS and me. It shows maybe 1 inch max over the two waves hitting here. Laughable hole over the MSP area. Time to fire up the ol' magnet and get some snowpack here!

I think we’re too far north, although a few models make me a little hesitant to punt. But I’m close. Rochester will do well.

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:rolleyes:  CPC = hits the Mitt like a brick wall 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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