12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings will add counties to WSW after collaborating with neighboring weather offices.  I would think in the next 1-2 hours we will know.

[james1976]

If its 10:1 ratios that would put me in 4-6" range which is better than last run. Regardless.....riding the edge is always nerve racking.

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, Hastings going with warnings already.

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM about to go sub 990mb west of KC. By hr 57 things are looking good for many of you NE peeps.

[Stormhunter87]

Big difference in the 18z nam

[jcwxguy]

Hr 45 on Nam snowfall map does not line up with the qpf map (my guess is sleet and not snow)

[Stormhunter87]

Yeah they have an early change over plus big snow bands here now

[St Paul Storm]

Talk about occluding....the thing sits in SW IA for almost 12 hours without moving.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam looking like the CMC wow

[gabel23]

Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!!

[Stormhunter87]

Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!!

Yeah buddy! Loving this run!

[Jaycee]

Just unloading snow for Nebraska!!!!

 

HOLY F***. This is an insane run! There's gunna be 2' totals in Nebraska with this run. Wow! 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112918/081/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018112918/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings put me in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4".  Have they missed the Euro?

[elrayox]

Omaha NWS going with an inch or less, 1-3 north of Omaha.....

[gabel23]

Hastings put me in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4".  Have they missed the Euro?

It's crazy if they discount that model considering that most all other models are starting to come in line with it! Plus it's track history has been impressive for quiet sometime. I'm thinking we aren't done with the surprises yet. I'm loving the trends on today's models; slower, colder, stronger! I think we all do well with this storm. 

[CentralNebWeather]

It's crazy if they discount that model considering that most all other models are starting to come in line with it! Plus it's track history has been impressive for quiet sometime. I'm thinking we aren't done with the surprises yet. I'm loving the trends on today's models; slower, colder, stronger! I think we all do well with this storm. 

Even if you took half of the Euro, I was over 8" on that last run.  NWS Hastings is usually Euro first and other models 2nd.  Even in the warning area, I would have expected more forecasted amounts.  You are correct, more changes should be coming.

[bud2380]

NWS already issued winter storm warnings, even though snow isn't going to start for another 36 hours.  LOL.  What's the rush?  Could have easily waited until tomorrow morning when there is less model spread.  Whatever, they frequently do things that make no sense. Like leave Linn County in a winter storm warning Sunday the entire day despite the fact not a single flake fell in the entire county for the entire duration of the storm.  

[Minny_Weather]

Omaha NWS going with an inch or less, 1-3 north of Omaha.....

I always like to call OAX incompetent but a lot of the times when they underforecast they somehow end up being right. We will see.

[Minny_Weather]

In other news.... Whoopdie doo another 18" storm for Norfolk, they NEVER get those /s

[Stormhunter87]

GFS flowing nam. Change over early and sub 990 for the low

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

On Friday, the leading edge of mid-level height falls and low-

level warm advection will spread from the central High Plains

toward the mid MO Valley ahead of a potent short-wave trough

moving into the Great Plains. Accordingly, precipitation will

increase from southwest-to-northeast across the area during the

afternoon with air temperatures in the mid to upper 30s generally

supporting a cold rain. Some of the initial precipitation could be

freezing rain, though amounts should be light.

 

Friday night, strong forcing for ascent overspreads our area. The

associated low-level warm-advection regime atop surface

temperatures falling to around freezing could yield bursts of

freezing rain and/or sleet over northeast NE with rain farther

south.

 

On Saturday, deep-layer column cooling within the northwest

quadrant of a maturing cyclone will foster a change over to snow,

heavy at times, across northeast NE. The onset of heavy snow will

coincide with strengthening north winds with considerable blowing

and drifting snow expected. As such, we have upgraded many of the

counties in the existing winter storm watch to a winter storm

warning. Farther south, the rain-snow line will steadily sag toward

I-80 with some light accumulation possible by Saturday afternoon.

 

Saturday night into Sunday, the synoptic system will elongate from

the Great Lakes into the central Plains with the western extension

of the primary deformation axis pivoting southeast through our

area. That will result in a prolonged period of light to

occasionally moderate snow across eastern NE and western IA,

especially north of I-80. For now, we will indicate storm-total

snow of 10-12 inches over portions of northeast NE decreasing to

around 2 inches or so in the Omaha and Lincoln areas. Despite

the expectation of lower snow amounts across the southern half of

our area, it's important to consider that frozen ground may not

allow for much of the initial rainfall to saturate. As such, any

standing water will form ice as temperatures fall below freezing.

Therefore, additional warnings and/or advisories will likely be

required at some point in the next 24 hours or so.

 

 

OAX. I agree with them on most of this, except for the part where they say heaviest snow will be North of the 80 Saturday night into Sunday. Ptype will be snow for the whole area by then, and it's up in the air as to who will be getting the heaviest rates. I think that's an ignorant statement.

[jcwxguy]

Regem

but still snowing...

 

[Stormhunter87]

OAX. I agree with them on most of this, except for the part where they say heaviest snow will be North of the 80 Saturday night into Sunday. Ptype will be snow for the whole area by then, and it's up in the air as to who will be getting the heaviest rates. I think that's an ignorant statement.

I got a feeling they will be changing their tune if these runs keep going the way they are.

[St Paul Storm]

I’ve never tracked a 2-3” snowfall for as long as I have with this storm. This hobby is maddening.

[CentralNebWeather]

Regem

but still snowing...

 

Sure seems to be slowing down.

[Stormhunter87]

Been looking through a few of the short range models. They are painting a much different picture. If the 00z runs keep showing this they are going to change their forecast.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern Nebraska

[jcwxguy]

I know I asked before, but which site (paying) has the 18z euro? I haven't been able to find it yet

[Minny_Weather]

I know I asked before, but which site (paying) has the 18z euro? I haven't been able to find it yet

weathermodels.com

[jcwxguy]

18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern Nebraska

[Stormhunter87]

18z FV3 GFS destroys much of Central and Eastern Nebraska

Heaviest about the same area but it has moved east a little.

[jcwxguy]

weathermodels.com

thanks

[GDR]

18 z nam blows up Nebraska!!

[gosaints]

I’ve never tracked a 2-3” snowfall for as long as I have with this storm. This hobby is maddening.

Oh lord back in my super weenie days I had a few I tracked 200 hours every model run

[Minny_Weather]

I'm still a weenie. This cutoff is maddening. GET DOWN HERE D****T.

[Stormhunter87]

I'm still a weenie. This cutoff is maddening. GET DOWN HERE D****T.

That sums up my feelings lol

[Stormhunter87]

Nam showing slightly stronger and slightly more south hour 35

[Stormhunter87]

Definitely showing an earlier change over for Eastern Nebraska