East Dubzz Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 No huge difference on the gfs so far through 48Definitely different by Hr 66, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Definitely different by Hr 66, though.Yeah by 66 it’s father west but it’s also colder back our way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Definite trend to the west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 ICON says hello Chi-town next Tue It’s odd that the GFS/ICON are seeing this secondary wave consistently but the Euro has not. Someone will cave and I think it’s gonna be the Euro. Hopefully tonight’s 00z run shows it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 That location would normally be producing a lot of precipitation across Nebraska on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 South Dakota special on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Like I said earlier, you really can't rely on models to nail down temperatures until the time comes. We have seen time and time again this year where temperatures end up being as much as a few degrees warmer or colder than models advertised all along. Remember how during the 10/14 storm it was supposed to be non-accumulating due to air temps well above freezing and it ended up being in the upper 20s and powdery by the time all was said and done? I'm throwing in the towel on models but I'm not gonna give up the storm until the time comes. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 It’s odd that the GFS/ICON are seeing this secondary wave consistently but the Euro has not. Someone will cave and I think it’s gonna be the Euro. Hopefully tonight’s 00z run shows it.Gfs just caved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Well the GFS went even further north for Saturday lol. Personally I would rather have the storm missing by a whole lot then by a few counties. So the further away the better Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 South Dakota and Chicagoland special on the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GEM and ICON look similar regarding the second wave. ICON is maybe a bit farther South though. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GFS says what 2nd storm. Amazing that models can be so different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GEM with a 982mb in IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GEM looks like a miss to the south with Mondays system. At least south of Nebraska. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Like I said earlier, you really can't rely on models to nail down temperatures until the time comes. We have seen time and time again this year where temperatures end up being as much as a few degrees warmer or colder than models advertised all along. Remember how during the 10/14 storm it was supposed to be non-accumulating due to air temps well above freezing and it ended up being in the upper 20s and powdery by the time all was said and done? I'm throwing in the towel on models but I'm not gonna give up the storm until the time comes.I agree with this quite a bit. 10/14 was a huge miss until about 24 hrs before the storm. One model picked up the change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Gfs just cavedMight be just a bad run...now the GGEM is seeing it...so I'll have to wait and see when I get up tomorrow what the Euro is showing.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GEM looks like a miss to the south with Mondays system. At least south of Nebraska. Stuck @ h102, but looks like it may end up ok for Lwr Lakes Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 GEM's prolly on the phone with GRR being told it better not come our way Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 My area could see an inch of rainfall from this system. Flooding could be a concern. Tbh, would not be surprise if t'sms occur also. WOw! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Ukie is a no go on the second wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Ukie is a no go on the second waveHow does it favor with the other models in terms of position and temps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 29, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 This sure is gonna be a nice little rain event. The DVN mentioned some possible thunderstorms south of I-80. Wish it would extend further north to this area. If I’m not gonna get snow, I’d like some rumbles of thunder at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Euro is surprisingly not that bad after the rains for quite a few on here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngNot that bad? The freezing line literally doesn't move 30 miles to my west. Wow lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not everyone-- but quite a few. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol. Shut up Craig. King EURO FTW. Looks beautiful for Central Nebraska and it's been the most consistent. I think the GFS crashes and burns again and NAM trends towards the EURO tomorrow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Shut up Craig. King EURO FTW. Looks beautiful for Central Nebraska and it's been the most consistent. I think the GFS crashes and burns again and NAM trends towards the EURO tomorrow. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Sorry In advance to everyone here, if your getting snow and I'm not, I cant be happy for you. Its nothing personal lol. There is a complaint thread solely made for you (& others who need to whine/complain/vent). I kindly suggest you use that to voice your displeasure in the future. Many thanks from many of us! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Sorry lol, got carried away. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 06Z NAM decent shift S. Where have we seen this before? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Could it be that the areas that received the heavy snow just a few days ago in IA that this time they just miss out to the snow to the N? Nature usually evens itself out in the long run ; maybe this time in the short run. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 06Z NAM decent shift S. Where have we seen this before?USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif I called this a few hours ago. EURO has been king and there's no reason to think this will be different. It might be slightly further North than it's showing right now, but GFS is likely out to lunch once again. I see the NAM continuing to creep south throughout today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 It always gives me doubt when the nam is the weakest and farthest south. It’s almost always amped up and north at this range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 It's crazy how well the euro preforms. Even with the updated GFS you would think that the American models would perform a little bit better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 No real mention of a S trend in regional AFD's this morning. OMX did mention adding a row of counties further S with expected snow further S but that was about it.Would appreciate if some of you cold post updates when the 12Z guidance comes in later today. Will be on the road. Thanks in advance and good luck with this system. I got good vibes on this FWIW. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2018 Report Share Posted November 29, 2018 I'm on the edge again with that Euro Haha. Watch for counties just to my west and north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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