12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[Stormhunter87]

No it's just below the rgem on tropical tidbits

[hlcater]

the HRDPS is essentially the canadian version of the HRRR. Except its not very good.

[Stormhunter87]

the HRDPS is essentially the canadian version of the HRRR. Except its not very good.

Ah okay thank you.

[Minny_Weather]

Don't look at Euro if you live in Lincoln or Omaha.

[jcwxguy]

Omaha/Lincoln dome

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The ECMWF is absolutely devastating for Omaha/Lincoln peeps. 

[Stormhunter87]

Well that stinks. I would not be traveling 80 this weekend though.

[james1976]

The ECMWF is absolutely devastating for Omaha/Lincoln peeps.

You think it pans out?

[Minny_Weather]

You think it pans out?

I'm not Craig, but I think the correct answer here is there is no possible way to know what will happen even with model trends. Borderline thermals are the hardest things to forecast whenever it comes to Winter storms. At this point I'm basically just looking at models for fun, I've basically given up on them for this storm because it is impossible to determine what will happen here till it actually happens.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You think it pans out?

It's possible. But I just dont know how a sliver of above freezing temps can stick around over us while everyone around us is at freezing. Time will tell.

[Stormhunter87]

06z nam really killed off the last two runs. Look like another win for the euro. Well the run ends okay not as great as the last two. I will say temperature is really playing a role here.

[Money]

Nam really caved to the euro this run here in Wisconsin

 

Euro showed 1+ inch qpf of snow up in the Fox Valley and NAM is trending that way also

[GDR]

The ECMWF is absolutely devastating for Omaha/Lincoln peeps.

it looks bad also on the latest gfs

[Stormhunter87]

Rgem looks better though

[Money]

Lol

[james1976]

No changes with DMX. They are holding off till later before transitioning to warnings, advisories.

[St Paul Storm]

No changes from MPX either other than to lower snowfall in S MN due to lower precip amounts and thermals. 4-6” south of the twin cities and 1-3” expected here. Occluded, sheared out, and vertically stacked are words you rarely want to hear with an approaching storm.

[Bryan1117]

I am going with an inch of rain here in Omaha starting tonight through Saturday night, followed by maybe 1 to 2 inches of snow at the end. Not seeing anything in the main models to suggest otherwise at this point.

 

Congrats to those out west that are going to cash in from this system.

[Minny_Weather]

"You must enter a post."

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM is exploding snow over Central Nebraska at hour 24.  Should be fun.  Hopefully it can spread so more people see something out of this.

[gosaints]

St Paul guy should start reeling

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Nam Snow up to DLH at Hr 36.

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM going ham again. West and north with the precip up this way.

[gosaints]

12z NAM going ham again. West and north with the precip up this way.

i Like where u r

[Grizzcoat]

In burbs of Mpls. Maybe I brought some good luck up 35?

[gosaints]

In burbs of Mpls. Maybe I brought some good luck up 35?

 

 

Still outside of the NAM's 3KM kill zone which is about 12 hours, but I like your positioning.  Heading to cannon falls tomorrow for some work.. Love my position there.

[Snowshoe]

Truly don't know what to think. My gut says warm air wins on Saturday and I end up with maybe 2" of slush by late Sunday.

[Niko]

Rain & wind for my area w temps remaining in the 30s. Flooding will be an issue for Saturday. Colder air Sunday nite returning could spit out some frozen precipitation late into Monday am.

[Minny_Weather]

The sun is trying to peek through. That's the last thing we need to keep temps down.

[CentralNebWeather]

RGEM model hits a lot of Nebraska with a good snowstorm.  Still snowing at hour 48.  Looks like a solid 8-12' and still coming down and many places.

[Stacsh]

Will be happy to get dry slotted here in Michigan  .  Don't need all that rain. 

[Stormhunter87]

Sun's out here sucks for keeping the temp down but haven't seen it for a bit which is nice.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS not overly excited for many on here---

[james1976]

Wow what a weak run

[gabel23]

Hey @central neb. I see you where put in a warning over night, good luck man! You continue to add on to your already impressive snow total for the year! 

[Minny_Weather]

USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_048.gifGFS not overly excited for many on here---

Well that's comical

[Minny_Weather]

The sun being out is nerve wracking. There won't be any chance for the air to cool down tonight, and that's bad if the sun makes temps even warmer than expected.

[Iowawx]

At this point, I will have more rain in December than snow.

 

What a horrible pattern we are in.

[gosaints]

Wow what a weak run

Not weak at all actually as strong as it has been.  Thermals are really messy however.  Spits out tons of QPF

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018113012/066/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Not weak at all actually as strong as it has been. Thermals are really messy however. Spits out tons of QPF

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018113012/066/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

No doubt. I just meant in terms of snowfall.