12/01 - 12/02 Winter Rain / Snow Storm

[FarmerRick]

1.30" rain on my gauge since yesterday afternoon. 

Had to shovel the inch of slush off my driveway in case we actually get any freezing temps.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow really picking back up again. Nice snow moving to the Southwest into my area. Streets have a deep snow and slush on them, tough to drive on and very slick below

[Minny_Weather]

Still complete mist. It's amazing how the low was supposed to be past KC by this time and it's still located over Smith Center, KS. I'm waiting patiently for the SLP to move, mainly because we need temps to fall a bit more. 35.1*F.

[gosaints]

Accumulating good or no?

this would accumulate in 40 degrees... Biggest flakes and just hammering. 3 inches in or so. 1st batch will.be done shortly. See what happens later on

[CentralNebWeather]

Still complete mist. It's amazing how the low was supposed to be past KC by this time and it's still located over Smith Center, KS. I'm waiting patiently for the SLP to move, mainly because we need temps to fall a bit more. 35.1*F.

You are so right. Models really can’t be looked now, radar all the way, since they are so far off with the low. Might still be more surprises

[St Paul Storm]

this would accumulate in 40 degrees... Biggest flakes and just hammering. 3 inches in or so. 1st batch will.be done shortly. See what happens later on

Wow, you’re getting hit nicely. I’m interested to see how things go here. That pocket between Mankato and Rochester north of Albert Lea means busines right now. Reports of intense snowfall.

[gosaints]

Wow, you’re getting hit nicely. I’m interested to see how things go here. That pocket between Mankato and Rochester north of Albert Lea means busines right now. Reports of intense snowfall.

yes the red on radar is unbelievable.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow..tonight snow may be judt east of us in Iowa. What in the hell! This is comical

[gosaints]

That was impressive... Time to wait for round 2 and shovel some concrete... If round 2 is all snow then totals could be pretty impressive

[Money]

That was impressive... Time to wait for round 2 and shovel some concrete... If round 2 is all snow then totals could be pretty impressive

Rap/hrrr showing 13+ for you

[Stormy]

Just noticed my barometer is showing air p at 29.25”! Lowest its been all year according to my wx station & records. What a power house low! Picked up around 0.70” rain this morning

[clintbeed1993]

Had 3 inches of rain and was in the perfect location for precip pivot only to have dry air come in after a dusting of snow and completely cut off precip for the last 4 hours.  Needless to say I'm extremely pissed off.  It's cool to see the strength of this bad boy though, not often you get 3 inches of rain on December 1st.  It's crawling in Central Kansas still, so I'm sure they'll be some wraparound yet.  NWS thinks the totals are too high now, what a bummer.  Congrats to CentralNebWeather, you've seen way more than any Nebraska poster out of this.  All that heavy precip that hit me as rain moved west and hit you as snow.  Lucky bastard

[gosaints]

Rap/hrrr showing 13+ for you

ha ha ya saw that. Euro to.. Probably a stretch with some melting the next few hours. Being at elevation does help a little

[Minny_Weather]

Wow..tonight snow may be judt east of us in Iowa. What in the hell! This is comical

Stop listening to model output. Everything was wrong about today and it's likely that'll be the case for tomorrow too.

[Minny_Weather]

Low looks to be over Marysville right now. Dry air is still taking over. We need it to saturate soon. The temperature here STILL has not moved, which is very, very frustrating. 35.1*F.

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

The rain the City is receiving is expected to turn to snow before midnight.  Twenty City crews will begin treating arterials at 4 p.m.  They will use a light application of granular salt pre-wet with brine to help prevent snow and ice from bonding to the pavement.  Additional crews are on stand-by to be called in if needed.  Drivers are urged to slow down and allow plenty of following distance as winter conditions develop.

City of Lincoln snow division's latest statement.

[Stormhunter87]

Sitting between 35 and 36 but the upper air is definitely colder.

[Minny_Weather]

Sitting between 35 and 36 but the upper air is definitely colder.

I'm waiting for some real precip to get here so we can get a bit of a test. It's just mist right now & has been for the past 2 hours, which says nothing. We have a band coming up from Nebraska City now so let's hope for some flakes.

[Money]

Sitting between 35 and 36 but the upper air is definitely colder.

You know this how exactly?

[Stormhunter87]

I'm waiting for some real precip to get here so we can get a bit of a test. It's just mist right now & has been for the past 2 hours, which says nothing. We have a band coming up from Nebraska City now so let's hope for some flakes.

Watching that like a hawk. I'm out and about so either it does something good and I'm stuck or crappy ran.

[LincSnow]

You know this how exactly?

[LincSnow]

[CentralNebWeather]

Had 3 inches of rain and was in the perfect location for precip pivot only to have dry air come in after a dusting of snow and completely cut off precip for the last 4 hours. Needless to say I'm extremely pissed off. It's cool to see the strength of this bad boy though, not often you get 3 inches of rain on December 1st. It's crawling in Central Kansas still, so I'm sure they'll be some wraparound yet. NWS thinks the totals are too high now, what a bummer. Congrats to CentralNebWeather, you've seen way more than any Nebraska poster out of this. All that heavy precip that hit me as rain moved west and hit you as snow. Lucky bastard

Got a good storm but temps of 32-33 have been melting it when it wasn’t falling heavily. Hastings just put out a picture out on Twitter of the mid level dry air that is really hurting snow amounts. I don’t remember anyone talking about this possibility.

[Minny_Weather]

No he's right. Upper air is colder. Rain/sleet mix is falling now.

[james1976]

Tornado Watch in Illinois. Wow. Powerhouse!

[Tom]

Tornado Watch in Illinois. Wow. Powerhouse!

Just a beauty of a beast and the Tornado Watch isn't placed that far off from where it was during cycle # 1 which produced numerous Tornado warnings in IA.  

[NH4NU]

WWA for the rest of E Nebraska now — 1-5”

[Minny_Weather]

Still have a bad feeling about this. Even when snow is 100% supported, we'll have a lot of dry air to overcome. This is reminiscent of a lot of the "storms" we got last year

[Stormhunter87]

Tornado Watch in Illinois. Wow. Powerhouse!

Watching that too got family in the watch.

[Stormhunter87]

Plus why I said the upper air is colder is because it was snowing and sleeting earlier with temps at 36-37 ground level. Only happens when the air aloft is colder

[james1976]

Precip starting to expand a bit across IA. I hit 36 earlier and now im at 35.

[St Paul Storm]

Holy friggin whiteout. Crazy snow.

[Minny_Weather]

There's a dry pocket right over me. Reflectivities are dying as they get here and whatever is still on radar as it gets here isn't reaching the ground. 34.5°F.

[snowstorm83]

There's a dry pocket right over me. Reflectivities are dying as they get here and whatever is still on radar as it gets here isn't reaching the ground. 34.5°F.

Still light rain here so it doesn't really matter. Maybe a few sleet pellets mixed in.

[Minny_Weather]

Still light rain here so it doesn't really matter. Maybe a few sleet pellets mixed in.

I know it doesn't matter. Better now than 3 hours from now. Dry air aloft will remain a concern though.

[Minny_Weather]

Snow is the ptype in Seward now. The 80 is apparently partially covered.

 

Rain/sleet mix here. Maybe when heavier stuff comes we'll finally get the dynamic cooling needed to support snow. 34.3*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Just as I finished the last post, flakes are now flying in Southeast Lincoln. 34.3*F

[Stormhunter87]

While I'm enjoying watching the wrap around those tornado warnings in Illinois making me nervous

[Minny_Weather]

OAX. Ignore the time stamp, this is the afternoon disco

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

This storm system continues to impress with its complexity, and
have continued to attempt to adapt the forecast to match up with
the latest trends in observational and model data. In terms of
what has happened so far, snow amounts range wildly even across
areas that have seen persistent snow fall. Melting has played a
huge role that seems to be magnified by the rain that fell prior
to snow, and also by the relative warmth of the snowflakes that
are falling through a fairly deep warm layer above the surface.
The end result has been that snowfall predictions seem to have
been pretty accurate but some of the snow accumulation amounts on
the ground have been on the low end so far, owing to that melting.
That said, several reports in the 5-6 inch range have come in to
the office, and expect a slow but steady accumulation of
additional light to moderate snow in these areas all the way
through Sunday.

Would like to focus on 3 key areas for the forecast through the
rest of Sunday. The first is in far northeast Nebraska where 2-7
inches of snow has fallen by now. There is a strong signal for
persistent light to moderate snow over the next 12 hours or so and
even into the day on Sunday. Deformation and mid level
frontogenesis will remain focused in this area for a prolonged
period with very little movement of the overall storm system. Do
expect a banded area within this region to total out in the 9-12
inch range by the time its all winding down.

The second area of focus is what is expected to be a relatively
persistent band of moderate snow extending from around David City
and Columbus up through Stanton, Wayne, and West Point. While it
may fluctuate west or east of this axis with time, it should
remain in the general vicinity and lead to several additional
inches of snowfall through tonight before it weakens and
dissipates.

The third area, and perhaps the biggest change in the forecast is
over southeast Nebraska up toward Omaha and into southwest Iowa.
It has become increasingly apparent over recent model and
observational data that the zone immediately northwest and west of
the low will be a focus for moderate precipitation through around
sunrise on Sunday. That will lead to a prolonged period of what
should be a majority of snow that pivots and focuses in the
general Nebraska City and Shenandoah areas. This band will be
between 50-100 miles wide for much of its lifetime and at least
initially surface temperatures will be warmer than freezing. The
difference between this snow and the snow of this morning is that
it will fall at night which favors slightly better accumulation
but will still experience some melting. At this time have gone
with a 2-6 inch prediction and also expanded the advisory across
the remainder of the CWA, but will need to closely monitor trends
as it is not out of the question that some of these areas could
end up exceeding 6 inches by Sunday morning in what is a very
delicate forecast of snowfall vs. snowmelt.

Sunday into Sunday evening will feature periods of light snow
moving across the entire forecast area and gradually coming to an
end from northwest to southeast by late in the day. Winds will
continue to gust in the 20-30 mph range through the day with
cooler temperatures steadily building into the region.

[Tony]

Congrats to all getting snow