Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 JMA weeklies also came in today which are showing some cooler weather near the Lakes through Week 1. However, Week 2-4 pop goes the ridge and that leads us right into Labor Day weekend and into mid September. Would be kinda nice to enjoy some more summery weather before Fall really begins to settle in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 Talk about a wet pattern for September! CFS showing a stark temp contrast creating convergence and storminess for the central CONUS... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150820.201509.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150820.201509.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 23, 2015 Report Share Posted August 23, 2015 Since there has been some discussion of September and early Autumn weather already, I decided to start the thread and move some of the discussion of September over here. Posts above are from last week. Tom posted some CFS maps showing a mild month for some and a very wet month for all of us. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2015 Here is CPC's take on September... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif Pretty similar to what the CFS is showing in the 4 corners region and the central states. Also, they update their Sept-Nov Outlook as well... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2015 Should be a nice Labor Day weekend around here... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2015 Report Share Posted August 25, 2015 Most Labor Day's/Labor Day weekends are pretty warm around here. 2011 though only had a high of 61°! So not surprised if there is one last bout of heat left to go. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2015 A streak of late season 90's are on the table as we open the 1st week of September. AC units might still get a late season fury! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Yeah GFS has the first week looking very warm and then at the end of the run it looks like we switch to NW flow. Have to see how it pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 The HEAT is ON...00z Euro pumping low/mid90's all the way into the lower lakes region from Tue-Fri next week! Crazy late season surge of warmth if this transpires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 The HEAT is ON...00z Euro pumping low/mid90's all the way into the lower lakes region from Tue-Fri next week! Crazy late season surge of warmth if this transpires.Its funny because it was not that hot around here in July or even August and now, September will be hotter than both months.. Go figure. Crazy Summer. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 It will be blazing hot here next week. Sunny, and hot. I don't think the humidity will be a big factor as we are approaching late in the Summer season. Although, it can get a bit humid in September. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 CFS still on board with a Torchy and Wet month... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150826.201509.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150826.201509.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Not excited about the torch so hopefully we get some good rain/storms with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Not excited about the torch so hopefully we get some good rain/storms with it.Analogs suggest a Torchy September translates to a colder Winter. I learned that from WxBell and this is true with the last 2 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted August 26, 2015 Report Share Posted August 26, 2015 Hi all, been awhile since I have posted. Getting back in the swing of school year and coaching football, very busy. Have had a nice summer in Central Nebraska. Many places have received above normal rainfall and temps have been manageable. Really cool last week but has warmed alot this week. Today is now sitting at 88 with dew of 66. Looks warm but not hot over the next week. Waiting to see what effects an el nino will have around here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 60s weather is too cold for me at this time of year being from Dallas Texas, I'm excited for this warmer September! Turn up the heat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 60s weather is too cold for me at this time of year being from Dallas Texas, I'm excited for this warmer September! Turn up the heat!Your blood is too thin for this type of weather! Haha, its funny you say this bc my folks are visiting me from Arizona and they are freezing today. Long pants and hoodies, the whole nine...lol...I can't imagine how cold you will be this Fall/Winter when we have intrusions of bitter cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Your blood is too thin for this type of weather! Haha, its funny you say this bc my folks are visiting me from Arizona and they are freezing today. Long pants and hoodies, the whole nine...lol...I can't imagine how cold you will be this Fall/Winter when we have intrusions of bitter cold.I don't care how cold it is (it can be -30) if theres snow on the ground I'll love. We usually only get one good snow storm every 4 years in North Texas, last year we had back to back 6 inch plus storms the year before we had an ice storm with 5 inches of of sleet and windchills in the single digits in 2010 we had 14 inches of snow, I loved them all. Now when it's 5 degrees and dry I'm going to hate it lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 I don't care how cold it is (it can be -30) if theres snow on the ground I'll love. We usually only get one good snow storm every 4 years in North Texas, last year we had back to back 6 inch plus storms the year before we had an ice storm with 5 inches of of sleet and windchills in the single digits in 2010 we had 14 inches of snow, I loved them all. Now when it's 5 degrees and dry I'm going to hate it lol.Folks in the Plains experienced one of the coldest and driest winters on record in 2013-2014. So I think they can attest to your comment being depressed while its brutal cold and dry with bare brown ground! I sure hope this season we can build a Glacier in our region and everyone on this Forum can experience some action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 What do you guys typically look for to try to get a first expectation for winter in your outdoor enviroment? In Texas we usually looks to see how early acorns are blooming and falling, and how big the ant mounds get. I've already seen squirrels scanvenging for nuts and finding some on the osu campus if that means anyhting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 What do you guys typically look for to try to get a first expectation for winter in your outdoor enviroment? In Texas we usually looks to see how early acorns are blooming and falling, and how big the ant mounds get. I've already seen squirrels scanvenging for nuts and finding some on the osu campus if that means anyhting.I've heard about the squirrel theory but I've noticed if the leaves on the tree's turn color earlier (like last year and the year before) it may be a sign of a tougher Winter ahead. 00z Euro pumping up the 90's into N IL from Tue-Sat, some mid 90's showing up as well. Will we finally have our 1st official Heat Wave??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Of course we will have a heat wave. School just started! lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 One year, many years ago the only heat wave for the whole year was in the beginning of September. Heat in early September is usually drier. It will act to speed up the leaf color and drying of the corn. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 27, 2015 Report Share Posted August 27, 2015 Leaves should start turning color in 3-4 weeks id say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted August 28, 2015 Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 Leaves should start turning color in 3-4 weeks id say.Leaves have already starting changing colors on some trees on the Ohio State Campus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2015 12z Euro Ensembles indicating an end to the Heat right on or, just after Labor Day. GFS from time to time has been showing a sharp cool down Labor Day week. The CFS model has also been showing this on occastion. Summer's last stance??? Might as well, it's been a great Summer thus far. Really looking forward to a nice, warm weekend ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2015 Let the wet pattern begin...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2015 After digesting the Euro Ensembles & CFS over the past few days, it doesn't look like much ridging is being presented by the modeling after Labor Day. Looks like a much cooler and wet look. The amount of above normal weather that is coming for the first week of this month, may potentially be followed by just as much cooling during the 2nd week offsetting any positive anomalies in temperatures. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 My goodness! Tthat is one chilly looking 00z GFS run! LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted August 31, 2015 Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 GFS exaggerating the cold shot as usual. Did the same exact thing earlier this month when we all thought the 80 degree streak would end short of 20 days (lol). Will most likely be highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s during that time. I'm more impressed by that massive ridge that engulfs the most of the CONUS by hour 300. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted August 31, 2015 Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 The battle between the GFS and Euro again... they're pretty much complete opposites by hour 200. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 00z Euro/GFS Ensembles starting to show some agreement in the 10-15 day range and showcasing a trough in the Central CONUS. Both models are creating a ridge in NW NAMER right where all that cold early season air is beginning to build. It'll be interesting to see how chilly things get, if they do at all. Alaska/NW Territories already seeing some snow capped mountains.... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 31, 2015 Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 GFS last few runs has shown it getting much cooler around here starting about next Tuesday. The end of today's 12z run looks cold!! But it's a long ways out to get excited about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 CPC updated the September Outlook and is in line with the CFS model now... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 31, 2015 Report Share Posted August 31, 2015 Nice bullseye over us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2015 Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 18z GFS staying with the cool mid-long range. Big time cold push at the end of the run again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 I heard the MJO might be trying to head towards Phase 8 which is a cooler patter for the Midwest/Plains states and points north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 Here's where the smoke is coming from. Surprisingly, there is a fire in SW MI & N MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 1, 2015 Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 Having a ridge in place is very boring. Upper 80s and humid for at least a week straight and no precip. But it may be Summer's last stand. Mid-long range looks much cooler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2015 Having a ridge in place is very boring. Upper 80s and humid for at least a week straight and no precip. But it may be Summer's last stand. Mid-long range looks much cooler.Hey, look at the bright side, at least we are now in Meteorological Fall! Ensembles are still trying to signal a sharp cool down later in Week 2. The CFSv2 has been showing a big time cool down mid month and beyond. Could be some indication of the transitioning LRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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