Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

-

 

... It should be Dan. Per my view. 

 

— I can't see how "Phil" has come up with warmth being focused otherwise more westward myself: .. if I'm correct were thinking he is in fact. 

 

He did state above at first that it would be central based and then he made a correction in his next post that it would be basin wide. I believe I remember him stating a while back that he thought it would be basin-wide.

[richard mann]

... basin-wide.

 

 .. "Nino" sector/s, "basin", tropical Pacific "basin". (?)

 

What are we, had he been, talking about. ?

[Phil]

I meant the "basis" (broad longitudinal location) of the warmest SST anomalies within the ENSO domain..a basin-wide event has no statistically significant basis..which is what I think this event will morph into.

[Black Hole]

I knew what you meant Phil if that helps. My thinking is also unchanged...which was quite similar to yours if I remember right.

[richard mann]

I['d] meant .. the "basin" (broad longitudinal location) of ... the warmest SST anomalies within ... the ENSO domain..

".. the warmest ..", When. ? .. At this point. ? ... possible, more generally. ?

 

— And sorry. But, with taking what you've said here above more literally, certainly leastwise, .. If ".. the warmest SSTAs" aren't present, neither is the "basin". 

 

... [A] basin-wide event has no statistically significant basis.. ........ which .... is ...... what I think this event will morph into.

And, .. you've lost me, pretty much completely here.

 

.. "Even so (?), ... this is what I believe the present state will ...." (?)

 

I knew what you['d] meant Phil .....

Please do, help me.

 

— "basin-wide", ... that containing / covering, all main Nino sectors / index regions. ?  .. perhaps. (?)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño#mediaviewer/File:Enso-index-map.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/about-el-nino-la-nina.shtml

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

 .. "Nino" sector/s, "basin", tropical Pacific "basin". (?)

 

What are we, had he been, talking about. ?

Basin-wide refers to the warm water being located from the central equatorial Pacific (around the Date Line) all the way into the eastern equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America. Central based or El Nino Modoki refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the central equatorial Pacific around the Date Line region, and east based refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the eastern equatorial Pacific close to the South American coast. I believe that I am right in my analysis, but if I am wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me on this.

[richard mann]

-
.. Clear enough. 

— Certainly much more than I've read otherwise above.
 
This although, with what you've said lastly here just above, are these your impressions gathered relative to what you've seen written elsewhere where looking at the idea of coverage / area of potential deviation from a more neutral condition, or more merely, and where looked at more all together, your attempt to appreciate what "Phil" had meant with his use of the term "basin-wide" above more perhaps. ?
 
.. More essentially here, I've heard the term "basin" used to describe the whole of the both "Pacific" and "Atlantic". But never, part of the Pacific, more tropical / equatorial, and extending only out to where you've pointed. 
 
"google", for:  "basin-wide ENSO"

[Phil]

I knew what you meant Phil if that helps. My thinking is also unchanged...which was quite similar to yours if I remember right.

Thanks. Yes yours was very similar to mine. I might lower my guess a bit unless I'm barred from doing so. I'm not very good at predicting anomalies on such a specific scale..haha

[coupdevill]

Basin-wide refers to the warm water being located from the central equatorial Pacific (around the Date Line) all the way into the eastern equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America. Central based or El Nino Modoki refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the central equatorial Pacific around the Date Line region, and east based refers to the warm water being confined mainly to the eastern equatorial Pacific close to the South American coast. I believe that I am right in my analysis, but if I am wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me on this.

 

Dan & Phil, What would this event look like for the Pacific Northwest? Thank you in advance!

[Phil]

Anyone want to predict where this El Niño goes when the ITCZ moves S & the -QBO begins dominating the lower stratosphere?

[Phil]

Looks very spindly attm...Atlantic ENSO (AEM/Atlantic Equatorial Mode) is also heavily negative..may eventually promote stronger easterlies in the EPAC as lift is enhanced there due to the warmer SSTs/HC regime:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.14.2014.gif

[richard mann]

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http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/167-will-a-major-el-nino-spell-doom-for-next-winter-in-the-nw/?p=29965

 

Anyone want to predict where this El Niño goes when the ITCZ moves S & the -QBO begins dominating the lower stratosphere?

 

... Looked at all together, what tells you that this will happen. ?

[Phil]

-

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/167-will-a-major-el-nino-spell-doom-for-next-winter-in-the-nw/?p=29965

 

... Looked at all together, what tells you that this will happen. ?

Essentially, -QBO gives MJO more free-will and favors an amplified EUT wave train, -NAM, etc. Shift in ITCZ will do just the opposite. Will the emergence/downwelling of the -QBO wind flux allow MJO to force KW/WWB activity? Who knows..

 

ITCZ moves N/S with seasonal shifts in insolation, altering the hemisphere-hemisphere wave train...ITCZ/Hadley/Walker/MJO/CCKW network (tropical forcings) either govern or act as the middle man to seasonal/intraseasonal phenomenon in the climate system....example ENSO, Polar-Mid Latitude Circulation, annular modes, etc.

 

The QBO is a strong governor of MJO mean-period frequency and NAM response to solar.

[Jesse]

Essentially, -QBO gives MJO more free-will and favors an amplified EUT wave train, -NAM, etc. Shift in ITCZ will so just the opposite.

 

ITCZ moves N/S with seasonal shifts in insolation, altering the hemisphere-hemisphere wave train...ITCZ/Hadley/Walker/MJO/CCKW network (tropical forcings) either govern or act as the middle man to seasonal/intraseasonal phenomenon in the climate system....example ENSO, Polar-Mid Latitude Circulation, annular modes, etc.

 

The QBO is a strong governor of MJO mean-period frequency and NAM response to solar.

 

He's just so gosh darn smart! He can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!

[Phil]

He's just so gosh darn smart! He can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!

Come on, man. You can find literature on this everywhere. You're more than smart enough to know this:

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/paper_36913.htm

[Phil]

https://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/session_13740.htm

[richard mann]

 

... just so gosh darn smart! ... can't help talking this way. It's our fault that we can't keep up!!

Come on, man. You can find literature on this everywhere. You're more than smart enough to know this:

 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/25HURR/techprogram/paper_36913.htm

 

Granted. .. by degrees. 

 

.. First, as for myself (My view.), I generally only ask you to expand with respect to something you've said when I've found that it's just far too truncated, for most anyone. 

 

— And with this, where looking at more than just how whatever dynamic, atmospherical, might work / be working .. to influence whatever other, but more where I've seen room for your thinking, perhaps additional, more specific, put together with what you might have pointed to more generally. 

 

.. This though, in point of fact, and where considering what Jesse's both said,  together inferred more here above, I also think that you could perhaps include a bit more of the basics, woven in somehow, to and along with some of the views and thinking that you post. 

 

— I've worked to suggest this to you myself, at many points in the past.  / Appreciate your response to what I'd asked, above. -  http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/167-will-a-major-el-nino-spell-doom-for-next-winter-in-the-nw/?p=29971