Will A Major El Nino Spell Doom For Next Winter In The NW?

[snow_wizard]

What are the latest CFS esembles saying?

 

 

They are trending cooler.  A few are neutral and one the other day was Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

 

The subsurface profile is growing quite problematic for a sustained El Nino.  A lot of cold subsurface west of 160W or even 150W now.  The Kelvin wave that initially triggered this warm episode is rapidly dissipating.  No WWB in sight at this point.  It will soon get to the point where we could have a minor WWB and it wouldn't do the Nino much good.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Only thing the El Niño needs to live right now are some good Westerly Wind Bursts. If you've noticed by now, the lack of WWBs is really choking the El Niño. Of course, the MJO will certainly act up. Do not forget tropical cyclones developing in the future. KWs ahead in time to consider as well.

 

I certainly hope we don't wind up with another ENSO neutral winter, or I fear CA is going to have yet another extremely dry winter due to the "memory" of the atmosphere having a -PDO, +AMO signature.

[snow_wizard]

I closely examined the 12z GFS run earlier today and things look to grow even more anti El Nino next week as strong surface high pressure sets up off the West Coast of South America and over the mid latitudes of the South Central Pacific.  Both very hostile features for El Nino.  The South American surface high would be particularly bad news for those wanting a Nino next winter.

[primetime]

MJO has moved into phase 5...

 

http://i.imgur.com/f7Aq4LP.gif

 

[primetime]

Several of the non-phase space MJO forecasts continue to show the MJO moving out into the Pacific, like this one...

 

http://i.imgur.com/Tf71ixd.gif

 

[Phil]

What makes you think this MJO/AAM push will just stop in its tracks? All the evidence points to a solid progression, albeit weaker than the March explosion.

 

The best you can hope for IMO is a borderline warm neutral/weak Niño..which is still possible. A moderate El Niño is most likely, though, in my opinion.

 

As was suspected by many of us here, the first signs of the next WWB are showing up in the modeling, as the MJO/tropical forcings are now progressing

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/Mh5Qgw/800.jpg

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good update from Tisdale at WUWT  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/23/the-201415-el-nino-part-11-is-the-el-nino-dying/#more-111826

 

Some good points about why it is hard to make good predictions, part of it is the NOAA budget cuts for TAO buoys.   Also some good graphs about the way things are now vs 2 months ago.

 

.

[snow_wizard]

As was suspected by many of us here, the first signs of the next WWB are showing up in the modeling, as the MJO/tropical forcings are now progressing

 

 

 

Looks like an unimpressive one though.  Any Kelvin wave would have a lot of anomalous cold water to overcome west of the dateline now.  My money is on neutral or weak Nino this winter.  Probably somewhere in the -0.2 to +0.8 range.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think many of the experts predicted this a couple of months ago.  The super Nino is certainly dead now...that much we can be sure of.

 

[Black Hole]

But many of us never bought the super nino idea. I am sticking to what I said before, a moderate nino.

[Phil]

If this Niño fails to develop (unlikely), then we may be in for a Niño-biased period until 2017. In fact, if the solar/QBO forcings truly dominate, we could see another large Niño push in a few months.

 

Referred to as the TPQDO (Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation), it lends more proof to the Solar-QBO harmonics driving ENSO. The PDO tends to spike at and just after solar max due to +ENSO circulations that are forced externally:

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/MFXyRt.jpg

 

 

This lengthened solar cycle/weak phase-amplitude shift lead to the failure of the 2012-13 El Niño attempt...but was still noted as a systematic heat release. A lot of that heat release occurring now as well. So we will likely not see any overall global temperature increase during this period, before the cooling begins later this decade.

[Jesse]

If this Niño fails to develop (unlikely), then we may be in for a multi-year warm event. In fact, if the solar/QBO forcings truly dominate, we could see another large Niño push fairly soon.

 

Referred to as the TPQDO (Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation), it lends more proof to the Solar-QBO harmonics driving ENSO. The PDO tends to spike at and just after solar max due to +ENSO circulations that are forced externally:

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/MFXyRt.jpg

You are all over the place. I think half of your "predictions" are just exercises in contrarianism.

 

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?

 

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right?

[Phil]

You are all over the place. I think half of what you "predict" are just exercises in contrarianism.

 

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?

I added to my post, suspecting you'd make a comment like this. There will be zero overall global warming through the upcoming period, but no cooling until ~ 2017, +/- 1yr, based on satellite measurements of the radiation budget.

 

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right?

A large systematic latent heat release is rare in May..but look at the data and you'll see nothing out of the ordinary:

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/VGyEjT/800.jpg

 

 

Even GISS, which is a low-resolution mess, is not crazy-warm.

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/HDWGzY/800.jpg

 

 

 

Warmists are desperate because if this niño fails to spike the global temperature, their theory is toast. El Niño is when all the supposedly "built up" heat is supposed to be forced out of the WPAC due to the +AAM/RT circulation...we've already seem Immense IO convection/WPHC amplification leading to latent heat release..similar to January 2013...yet the global temperature has barely moved! The positive imbalance at the TOA continues to grow, suggesting the system is preparing to cool...perhaps abruptly, once conditions permit....

 

I actually thought the Apr-Sep period this year would torch mightily as the QBO drops, and the ESC cools, leading to enhanced WPAC convection..hence latent heat release.

 

Please, trust me...

[Jesse]

2017 is getting closer. It will be interesting to see what happens. Just hoping you don't change or modify your overall prediction between now and then.

[Phil]

2017 is getting closer. It will be interesting to see what happens. Just hoping you don't change or modify your overall prediction between now and then.

Lol, don't worry. 2017, +/- 1yr, accounting for solar/ENSO/QBO forcing. Cooling could initiate in winter of 2016-17 if we've timed things correctly. Either way, 2016-2018 is the window of initiation, with 2020-2025 featuring a very abrupt drop, much like the (unadjusted) 1963-1970 cooling event, which was intentionally erased from the CRU record.

 

Though this Niño will likely not lead to a significant temperature spike anyway, if any at all. So that alone should clarify the underlying trend, IMO.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I hope conditions are different enough so that CA and the SW U.S. don't experience another bone dry winter for 2014-15. These last two winters here in CA were just terrible due to an overall lack of precipitation in the entire state!

[Jesse]

Lol, don't worry. 2017, +/- 1yr, accounting for solar/ENSO/QBO forcing. Cooling could initiate in winter of 2016-17 if we've timed things correctly. Either way, 2016-2018 is the window of initiation, with 2020-2025 featuring a very abrupt drop, much like the (unadjusted) 1963-1970 cooling event, which was intentionally erased from the CRU record.

 

Though this Niño will likely not lead to a significant temperature spike anyway, if any at all. So that alone should clarify the underlying trend, IMO.

I guess I'm just having trouble understanding how the warmest May in record globally and a possible new record warm year for 2014 does not equate a significant temperature spike.

[Phil]

I guess I'm just having trouble understanding how the warmest May in record globally and a possible new record warm year for 2014 does not equate a significant temperature spike.

That record was up for grabs. Large spikes in global temperature are rare in May, as large, coherently unified MJO events resonate less in the NH latent heat release process, which is already aggrivated to begin with due to higher levels of insolation.

 

However, May 2014 has seen very anomalous convection in the IO/WPAC (Just looked at how beefed the WPAC Hadley Cell is). This has resulted in a large systematic heat release, much like what occurred in January/February of 2013.

 

 

However, on the 30yr mean, again...nothing to write home about...

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/VGyEjT/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/HDWGzY/800.jpg

[richard mann]

[The] Warmists are [...] desperate ....

 

Please, trust me...

 

Truly, inspirational. 

 

(Ohp. Sorry. "Sarcasm Alert".)

[Phil]

More good news...looks like UAH is finally going to be fixed...from Dr. Spencer:

 

As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….

http://www.drroyspencer.com

 

It's about time. The divergence of UAH in recent years is getting ridiculous...

[Phil]

Truly, inspirational.

 

(Ohp. Sorry. "Sarcasm Alert".)

Nice manipulation. Bravo...

[richard mann]

Nice manipulation. Bravo...

 

Adulation, totally unnecessary. 

 

— "Fat" as you lay 'em up and lob 'em in, knocking 'em out is fairly simple. 

 

"manipulation" .. Your own, convenient and more comfortable characterization .. of course. 

 

Basically, rather, more just my "appreciation" of your rhetoric. 

[Phil]

Adulation, totally unnecessary.

 

— "Fat" as you lay 'em up and lob 'em in, knocking 'em out is fairly simple.

 

"manipulation" .. Your own, convenient and more comfortable characterization .. of course.

 

Basically, rather, more just my "appreciation" of your rhetoric.

You could try addressing my points if you'd like.

[richard mann]

You could try addressing my points if you'd like.

 

As I find them. (?) .. And to the extent that I find them noteworthy, then. (?)

 

.. Where woven in with and amongst the "rhetoric". ?

 

— "Appreciate", the invitation.

[Phil]

Here's that NCDC May datapoint people were mentioning:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/XWkAzE/800.jpg

[primetime]

wow, this nino is on life support.  Good calls in here by snow wizard, who first expressed doubts about its development.  Looks like we are teetering on warm neutral / weak nino at the moment.  To me, the wind anomalies are more important than the fading upper oceanic heat content.  Anyone have any ideas on where we go between now and fall with the wind anomalies?  Wouldn't the transition into the -QBO favor more westerly anomalies and El Nino?

[stuffradio]

You are all over the place. I think half of your "predictions" are just exercises in contrarianism.

 

What ever happened to the major global cooling episode that we apparently sit upon the precipice of? Wouldn't a multi-year warm ENSO event kind of throw a wrench in that?

 

Btw, 2014 now has seen the warmest May on record globally, and as of now is one track to be one of the warmest years on record (if not the warmest). Massive global cooling should be setting in any day now though, right?

Doesn't extremes of one end of the spectrum lead to extreme on the opposite? If it gets extremely warm, or we get big El Ninos, we'd get big La Ninas. Right?

[Black Hole]

That isn't necessarily true Stuffradio. That assumes a static climate. Very few of us believe in that, regardless of which way you think its swinging.

[Phil]

Developing Niño (right) yrs vs 2014 (left)...me thinks Hansen/NASA et al are missing the boat:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/E5e7Dy.jpg

[Dan the Weatherman]

Developing Niño (right) yrs vs 2014 (left)...me thinks Hansen/NASA et al are missing the boat:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/E5e7Dy.jpg

Phil, please elaborate on this a bit more. Are you thinking there is not going to be an El Nino this year?

[Phil]

No change in my thinking...I'm still thinking weak or moderate El Niño, central-based

[TT-SEA]

No change in my thinking...I'm still thinking weak or moderate El Niño, central-based

Looks far east-based right now.

[Phil]

Looks far east-based right now.

That should change. I meant basin-wide, not central-based

[richard mann]

.. Even more clear. (Not.)  @
 
Somewhere then, in the wider part of "the" "basin", Right. ?
 
.. Clarity, not one of your strong suits really. Is it. ?

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/?p=29714
 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/573-pacific-nw-july-2014-discussion/?p=29733

[Dan the Weatherman]

That should change. I meant basin-wide, not central-based

Thanks. I hope it is basin-wide as opposed to "Modoki" because I think that would increase the odds for a wetter winter in CA and the rest of the SW states which are in various stages of drought.

[primetime]

.. Even more clear. (Not.)  @

 

Somewhere then, in the wider part of "the" "basin", Right. ?

 

.. Clarity, not one of your strong suits really. Is it. ?

 

So, let me get this straight...you constantly attack one of the posters who offers the most to this forum (Phil)...meanwhile you give us constant ramblings of wording that resembles some sort of foreign language...odd, just odd

[richard mann]

-

 

... It should be Dan. Per my view. 

 

— I can't see how "Phil" has come up with warmth being focused otherwise more westward myself: .. if I'm correct were thinking he has in fact. 

[richard mann]

So, let me get this straight..

 

Please do. .. I scrutinize what I find "posted". (Perhaps you may want to look up the term.)

 

This though it might be asked, certainly at times, where considering what you've suggested above, ...

 

.... offers the most ....

.. "the most", .. What. ?

 

And, if you can't understand to appreciate what I post (?) .. I'd say, you're not working to quite well enough.

(Oh Well.)