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April 22nd-25th back to back storms with a potential blizzard, severe weather and drought relief.


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I wanted to group these storms together due to the size of the forum and how close they are together.  The first of the 2 could be a significant severe weather producer for eastern Nebraska and points south and east.  The GFS has this for storm #1

image.thumb.gif.6f60e94caeb011a3ca22e128f81eb208.gif

Storm # 2 is more exciting as the drought areas could get their best precipitation event in over 6 months.

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10 day precip total for the GFS and Euro.

qpf_acc.conus.png

qpf_acc.conus.png

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I wanted to group these storms together due to the size of the forum and how close they are together.  The first of the 2 could be a significant severe weather producer for eastern Nebraska and points south and east.  The GFS has this for storm #1

image.thumb.gif.6f60e94caeb011a3ca22e128f81eb208.gif

Storm # 2 is more exciting as the drought areas could get their best precipitation event in over 6 months.

image.thumb.gif.808a62e2294acdc8ef12f569c7f2315b.gif

10 day precip total for the GFS and Euro.

qpf_acc.conus.png

qpf_acc.conus.png

 

Great work Clinton. Last decent rain event here was late September. Local paper says a little over 1.0” of precipitation total from November 1- April 16. Just really unbelievable. 

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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Great work Clinton. Last decent rain event here was late September. Local paper says a little over 1.0” of precipitation total from November 1- April 16. Just really unbelievable. 

The first of the 2 will likely split ya but the second storm should give you some good rain.  It will take more than 1 storm to end the drought but I'm hoping this will maybe start an improving trend.

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The first of the 2 will likely split ya but the second storm should give you some good rain.  It will take more than 1 storm to end the drought but I'm hoping this will maybe start an improving trend.

We are so many inches behind, it will take months to make up. It is never good going into to planting season in a major deficit. 

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Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked.  The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible...

nsm_depth_2022041705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

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@Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew....

 

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19 minutes ago, Tom said:

Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked.  The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible...

nsm_depth_2022041705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

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@Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew....

 

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Models are really showing big rain totals for mby.  Severe weather will really crank up this weekend. 

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Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. 

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked.  The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible...

nsm_depth_2022041705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

image.png

 

@Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew....

 

2.gif

 

 

I get oofed as well

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. 

Awwww this is so awful. I can’t believe how bad it’s getting there. Isn’t May/June usually your best months though for precip? Hope you know everyone in here is rooting for you!!

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. 

It really seems like that were going back into the 1930s, when the weather was COMPLETELY against us.

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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42 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

Awwww this is so awful. I can’t believe how bad it’s getting there. Isn’t May/June usually your best months though for precip? Hope you know everyone in here is rooting for you!!

Thanks for the kind words. March usually has a big storm or two. April- June typically are the best. July can deliver with large thunderstorms or totally dry. We’ve had dry stretches before, but never that I can remember going on 6 months 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

@CentralNebWeatherare you here much from your office about this set-up for Friday?

day4prob.gif

 

They think it stays east. They’re pretty pessimistic that if we don’t get something Friday, we’ll not get anything in April.  It would be one of the driest April’s in history following record dry November, December, January, February, and March in this area.  NWS says the dreaded dry slot looks to plague us once again.  Even the most optimistic people I know are concerned about the impact this drought will have.  #drought2022

 

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12z GFS has a stalled or slowly sinking cold front over mby for the weekend.  It could bring several chances for severe weather and way to much rain.  Completely screws Nebraska, just unbelievably terrible.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_sc.png

 

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It looks like the only chance for appreciable precip is in the far eastern edge of the state, even east of Lincoln. The past several years has been a string of dry Aprils at LNK, but previous years were not already as a dry as a bone. May almost always comes in clutch, so if the dry pattern continues though then we're probably extra screwed. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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52 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

It looks like the only chance for appreciable precip is in the far eastern edge of the state, even east of Lincoln. The past several years has been a string of dry Aprils at LNK, but previous years were not already as a dry as a bone. May almost always comes in clutch, so if the dry pattern continues though then we're probably extra screwed. 

My father in law and brother in law farm east of town.  They have about 3000 acres of corn and soybeans along with 150 head of cattle.  They don't know how a crop with be able to come out of the ground unless they turn on their irrigation systems.  They begin planting next Monday.  They are very concerned about costs and will they get a crop that can make any money.  Also putting off any equipment purchases for the foreseeable future.  That then affects local agricultural businesses relying on farmers to purchase equipment.  Bad news everywhere.

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21 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The WPC has 4-6 inches of rain for Oklahoma & Missouri, but almost nothing in Nebraska, stupid dry slot!

I saw that.  We've been dry slotted some over the years, but I don't remember anything like this year.  How long has it been since we've had a low come out of SE Colorado and travel across KS to the St. Joseph MO area.  That is our perfect moisture scenario path.

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30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I saw that.  We've been dry slotted some over the years, but I don't remember anything like this year.  How long has it been since we've had a low come out of SE Colorado and travel across KS to the St. Joseph MO area.  That is our perfect moisture scenario path.

Best one was in 2019, but there must be a certain pattern that is refusing to break.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Temps will rise to around 80 in my area Saturday and will create my best chance of severe weather so far this spring.

image.png.8246c44de2f0cea4776f6c025245e21a.png

SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in
   a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern
   Great Plains.  This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   hail and strong wind gusts.
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Enhanced risk issued tomorrow, hope it translates into some rain for Nebraska. 

image.png.a809117273843eeef2ea1d216c4dd2f7.png

NWS Hastings mentions wind and hail primarily. Local forecast says maybe 0.25-0.50”. I’d error on the low end during a drought, and hope for more. Going on close to 7 months of this, I remain pessimistic until a major pattern change occurs. 

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  • Clinton changed the title to April 23rd-25th back to back storms with a potential blizzard, severe weather and drought relief.
  • Clinton changed the title to April 22nd-25th back to back storms with a potential blizzard, severe weather and drought relief.

You ready @hawkstwelve Looks like your first legitimate severe threat of severe of the season. I always like being downstream from convective initiation.

5F7B3D62-38B3-4E1A-A365-1F05C05BECE6.jpeg

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Temps will rise to around 80 in my area Saturday and will create my best chance of severe weather so far this spring.

image.png.8246c44de2f0cea4776f6c025245e21a.png

SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in
   a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern
   Great Plains.  This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   hail and strong wind gusts.

I get some action as well

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

You ready @hawkstwelve Looks like your first legitimate severe threat of severe of the season. I always like being downstream from convective initiation.

5F7B3D62-38B3-4E1A-A365-1F05C05BECE6.jpeg

I've been on the fringes the past couple rounds. Nice to see the action closer to home.

Crossing my fingers!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've been on the fringes the past couple rounds. Nice to see the action closer to home.

Crossing my fingers!

Latest ECMWF maxes out the flash rate with the line coming through tomorrow evening.

8B2EC09C-D66F-438F-A6B3-335DEDB49B00.png

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lots of wind headed your way.  Could have some supercells in your area.

I know! The Dew Points are higher than normal right now, it feels like June outside.

 

One of the storm systems will overperform here, but which one?

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Life just isn't fair this year.  We are just hoping for a little rain.

There's an Enhanced risk of Severe Storms for your area tomorrow, so maybe?

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Yeesh!

BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS WEEKEND...

.A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and
very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern
Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern
Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across
northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph.
Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest
South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across
these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills
will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher
amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding
plains.
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