April 22nd-25th back to back storms with a potential blizzard, severe weather and drought relief.

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yeesh!

BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS WEEKEND...

.A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and
very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern
Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern
Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across
northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph.
Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest
South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across
these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills
will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher
amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding
plains.

Man, I’d give a finger to experience conditions like that here.

Well, maybe…

[OmahaSnowFan]

The elevated showers and storms forecasted for tonight have already rapidly developed. They're already putting down pea sized hail with the brief downpours.

[jcwxguy]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The elevated showers and storms forecasted for tonight have already rapidly developed. They're already putting down pea sized hail with the brief downpours.

The storms forecasted for tonight aren't supposed to hit until 130-330

 

[hawkstwelve]

00z 3km NAM develops a line over NW Nebraska/Kansas, then it completely fizzles out by the time it hits central SD, and then another line forms over Iowa/Minnesota. 

That would be a little frustrating if it actually works out like that.

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Went from marginal risk with maybe some hail to a watch with risk up to 2” hail

[gabel23]

Currently 60° with a 61% relative humidity reading. It would be pretty disappointing if I don’t get something out of this line of storms moving off to the north east…

[Phil]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z 3km NAM develops a line over NW Nebraska/Kansas, then it completely fizzles out by the time it hits central SD, and then another line forms over Iowa/Minnesota. 

That would be a little frustrating if it actually works out like that.

3km NAM is atrocious with convection 90% of the time out here. The other 10% it nails it perfectly. No in between.  

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

No significant changes from the SPC.  Good luck to @CentralNebWeatherI hope you can get a nice line to blow through.  Looks like some violent storms will be possible. 

 

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the
   Great Plains into Upper Midwest Friday from late this afternoon
   through tonight. Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe
   hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, are possible,
   particularly from the Texas Panhandle into north-central Nebraska.

   ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level trough will quickly move eastward through the Desert
   Southwest today as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the
   base of the trough. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear
   will be in place by afternoon, making conditions favorable for
   organized severe storms. At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen
   across northeastern Colorado today, and move north-northeastward
   into western Nebraska. A warm front extending eastward from the low
   will advance northward across Nebraska this afternoon and into
   southern South Dakota this evening. As low-level convergence
   increases near and to the north of the surface low during the late
   afternoon, convection will likely initiate and move
   north-northeastward across northwestern Nebraska and southwestern
   South Dakota. Convective coverage is expected to rapidly increase
   across the northern Plains during the evening as the exit region of
   the mid-level jet moves into the area from the southwest. The
   current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will move
   eastward through western Nebraska and western South Dakota during
   the evening, with supercells developing ahead of the line further to
   the east.

   NAM Forecast soundings at Valentine, Nebraska near the peak of
   instability early this evening have a loaded gun profile with MLCAPE
   in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This along with lapse rates
   approaching 8.0 C/km in the 700 to 500 mb layer will be favorable
   for supercells with large hail. In addition, hodographs are long and
   looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 400 m2/s2. This
   will be favorable for tornadoes as well with the more dominant
   cells, especially as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the
   early evening. Wind damage will also be possible. The threat should
   persist through the evening and into the early overnight period as
   storms move east-northeastward into the eastern Dakotas late in the
   period.

[Clinton]

Lots of uncertainty with severe activity Saturday and Saturday night but Iowa and Minnesota could see some big storms near the triple point.  If the dry line can ignite then many of us could see big storms further south.

[CentralNebWeather]

Make that 3.  Our Middle School track meet for today has been cancelled due to the forecasted winds of 60 MPH and potential blowing dust.  That is 3 track meets at our school cancelled this spring due to wind and dust.  Never have seen this before.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Ended up with a whopping .10” of rain last night.

Thankfully not a huge deal here since we’re doing ok for moisture right now.

[gabel23]

Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. 

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. 

My goodness.  We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome.  Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much.  

[gabel23]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My goodness.  We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome.  Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much.  

I have a folder of images, snow reports, rain reports and radar images from the past 5 years and it's crazy how well they line up with that river! I'm hoping tonights storms can hold together and march east and give us all a little something. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

81 with a dewpoint of 66. Now this feels like spring! Too bad we get nothing out of the soup today though...

[Iceresistance]

Looks like that Saturday's Setup for Oklahoma & Kansas is non conditional for now.

[Phil]

Seems the lack of boundary layer moisture might be an inhibiting factor for convection with this system. Need to moisten up the biosphere with some rain.

[gabel23]

@CentralNebWeather yet again another major going on. Just insane. Cambridge just missed but Bartley and Indianola being evacuated. Here it is on radar an hour ago! Radar down in Hastings. 

[gabel23]

No way stopping this. 

[hawkstwelve]

Lots of lightning to my west in central SD but nothing to write about here yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

13 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

@CentralNebWeather yet again another major going on. Just insane. Cambridge just missed but Bartley and Indianola being evacuated. Here it is on radar an hour ago! Radar down in Hastings. 

Just saw they are evacuating a campground by Cambridge. 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just saw they are evacuating a campground by Cambridge. 

There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot?

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot?

Great question. I’m not finding much information about it yet. 

[CentralNebWeather]

29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot?

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Well tonight turned into a giant nothingburger and chances don't look too great for here tomorrow.

On to the next one.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Just checking out the models for tomorrow and it looks like I might head down towards SE Neb or NE KS tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Most of the models show pretty nice looking soundings with TONS of low level CAPE. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well tonight turned into a giant nothingburger and chances don't look too great for here tomorrow.

On to the next one.

Have you found a permanent place of residence yet?

[CentralNebWeather]

By Cambridge Nebraska last evening. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Have you found a permanent place of residence yet?

Nope, still renting a townhouse. We've put 4 offers on 4 different houses ranging from 10-40k over asking and gotten beat on each one. Housing market is absolutely brutal for buyers right now. 

[hawkstwelve]

1. Watch new Spiderman movie with family

2. Become one with your friendly neighborhood Spiderman

3. Newfound spidey-senses wake you up 5 mins before severe thunderstorm rolls through

4. Proceed to watch as severe thunderstorm rolls through

5. Profit

[CentralNebWeather]

What the heck? Our landfill is on fire. 

 

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nope, still renting a townhouse. We've put 4 offers on 4 different houses ranging from 10-40k over asking and gotten beat on each one. Housing market is absolutely brutal for buyers right now. 

What areas of the country are you planning on buying?  Just in SD?

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What the heck? Our landfill is on fire. 

 

You have to wonder if there are any intentional fires being set...you never know in this crazy world we live in.  Have you read how many food processing plants have mysterious been lit on fire or planes crashing into them??  Very weird and odd I'd have to say.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Very disappointing, only between 0.10-0.15” of rainfall this early morning. Might just settle the dust a bit. Now dry for another week. As last night showed, the fires aren’t lessening in strength when they get started. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

You have to wonder if there are any intentional fires being set...you never know in this crazy world we live in.  Have you read how many food processing plants have mysterious been lit on fire or planes crashing into them??  Very weird and odd I'd have to say.

 

 

I don’t think in this area, but their are wackos everywhere. Some people get the thrill in others pain. Way too many coincidences in those food plant fires. Those caught need to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I don’t think in this area, but their are wackos everywhere. Some people get the thrill in others pain. Way too many coincidences in those food plant fires. Those caught need to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. 

Agree...x100

[CentralNebWeather]

I took a little drive, and yes our landfill is on fire. It is about 1 1/2 miles south of town. Heavy smoke blowing from the south/southeast has shrouded the western half of town in smoke. We live on the eastern edge of town, no smoke or smell here. There are many fire trucks and heavy equipment. Don’t want this spreading into town. What a year, not in a good way. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Now a smell of smoke in the air here on the east side of Holdrege as of 8 am from the Holdrege landfill fire. Winds must have veered some.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nope, still renting a townhouse. We've put 4 offers on 4 different houses ranging from 10-40k over asking and gotten beat on each one. Housing market is absolutely brutal for buyers right now. 

That’s what my dad before he landed a home in FL. IIRC it took him over 6 months. Hope it’s a faster process for you.

[Clinton]

The wind is ripping this morning gusting over 45mph.  Storms over east central Kansas are fairly strong, not sure what impact they might have on severe chances this afternoon.  Currently is 70 degrees already and the sun is shining. 

[Andie]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nope, still renting a townhouse. We've put 4 offers on 4 different houses ranging from 10-40k over asking and gotten beat on each one. Housing market is absolutely brutal for buyers right now. 

So sorry to hear your trials.  
The market is brutal.  My concerns for you now to add to your burden are rate hikes on the horizon.  
We went through this during the 2007 pre-crash economy. We built. Took 7 months then.  With the supply chain issues it’s much harder.  
Stay strong and determined. You’ll get the right place.

Meanwhile we have high winds 27-37 mph.  Storms mañana!

[Iceresistance]

I have something funny to show Y'all: 

Do Y'all see who is not under any weather alert for NWS-Norman?

[Iceresistance]

12z HRRR has my area with 2-4 inches of rain by Sunday

 

3 Waves of storms, 2 are Supercell waves & the 3rd wave is the Training effect, which is highly dependent on when the boundary stalls out.

[hawkstwelve]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

What areas of the country are you planning on buying?  Just in SD?

Yeah mainly suburbs of Sioux Falls. Didn't want to buy a house til we got here and checked out various areas/neighborhoods so renting for the time being.