December Observations and Discussions

[Maxim]

An observation... 34-35° currently with an onshore flow off a lake that's above normal. Temperatures nearly the same at the lake front too. And LOT mentioned that temps would stay above 40° today - busted!

43° at ORD today... and 46° apparently at MDW which seems hard to believe.

[Geos]

43° at ORD today... and 46° apparently at MDW which seems hard to believe.

Under performed here. Latest discussion said steady temps this evening...

[gabel23]

Reports of thunder, lighting and sleet tonight. I was on my way back home and seen a bolt of lightning! I must say, I wasn't expecting much of anything from this first wave but man did mother nature deliver! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
802 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...LIGHTNING ALONG WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS INSIDE A NARROW BAND THIS EVENING. ALSO NEAR 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION...

NEZ041-047>049-062>064-074>076-084-085-260600-
/O.CON.KGID.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-151226T0600Z/
NANCE-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FULLERTON...GENOA...ST. PAUL...
CENTRAL CITY...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...
GRAND ISLAND...AURORA...YORK...MINDEN...HASTINGS...SUTTON...
HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD...FRANKLIN...CAMPBELL...
HILDRETH...RED CLOUD...BLUE HILL...BLADEN
802 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

* LOCATION...A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM NEAR
FRANKLIN TO HASTINGS TO CENTRAL CITY AND SILVER CREEK...AND
WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. KEEP IN
MIND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHTNING AS WELL.

* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION...LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF COMBINED
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW THIS EVENING. MORE SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING
FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

$

HEINLEIN

[Geos]

Ramsey mentioning some snow in northern IL possible before the first wave moves out. Maybe an inch for places.

[jcwxguy]

Heavy thunder snow here in Sioux falls SD!!

[westMJim]

Welcome to Boxing Day.

NWS office here in GR is still calling for ice event for Monday into Monday night. With 0.25” of more of ice. And winds in the 25 to 35MPH range. Will have to see how that plays out. Of course there is no snow on the ground here but this morning we did have a lot of frost. To show you just how warm its been its been a long time since we even had a frost in the morning.  Grand Rapids (along with many other locations) is still on track to have its warmest December on record.  Sitting at a mean of 40.8° and that is +10.9° and so far this month Grand Rapids has only had 0.6” of snow. 

[bainbridgekid]

Just stared pouring rain here in Evanston.

[jcwxguy]

Heavy thunder snow here in Sioux falls SD!!

ended with about 10-11 inches here

[Geos]

ended with about 10-11 inches here

 

Nice!

Your temperature is really dropping now.

 

Miserable day here with varying degrees of light rain/drizzle/mist.

[Tom]

ended with about 10-11 inches here

What do you have OTG right now?

[jcwxguy]

What do you have OTG right now?

idk,  I stayed in Sioux falls, SD last night on the way to Minnesota. I just got to wheaton, mn for christmas on my wife's side of the family. Supposed to head back to Lincoln, Ne on monday morning.... (but will probably start heading back tomorrow after we have the christmas up here (1pm christmas planned here), if we do leave tomorrow, we will probably stay the night in Sioux falls, SD again then leave early monday morning and make it back to lincoln hopefully around noon-planning on it taking longer due to weather 

[ingyball]

MOnster tornado just east of me, it almost hit my Aunt and Uncle

[Geos]

MOnster tornado just east of me, it almost hit my Aunt and Uncle

 

Where are you again? Southern Plains?

 

Glad they're ok.

 

All I'm hearing about tonight is that Garland, TX tornado. 8 killed

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/27/us/severe-weather/index.html

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty sad to hear about the tornado deaths tonight.

[ingyball]

Where are you again? Southern Plains?

 

Glad they're ok.

 

All I'm hearing about tonight is that Garland, TX tornado. 8 killed

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/27/us/severe-weather/index.html

Yeah I live near DFW airport when I'm not in College, My Aunt and Uncle are only a couple of miles west(I think) from Garland.

[gosaints]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Up to 7.75 inches of rain down here. Still pouring. Lots of flooding.

[Geos]

Up to 7.75 inches of rain down here. Still pouring. Lots of flooding.

 

That's crazy!

Feel free to post your rainfall amounts in the storm thread. I hope you're on high ground.

[OKwx2k4]

Sorry. Thought I posted them in the right place.

[Tom]

Quite the turnaround in snow cover over the lower 48...53% covered with snow and after today's storm, might be well over 60% by tomorrow which is close to 2x above normal for this time of year.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201512/nsm_depth_2015122805_National.jpg

 

Edit: Might be overdone in KS/MO due to the sleet/fzrn the model is accounting for.

[OKwx2k4]

Overdone in far NE OK also.

[james1976]

Local met says an inch or less with a little wave coming through this Wednesday. Same thing happened Christmas Eve, same track, and we got 4.2" with 10-11" reports over by Omaha. Interested to see how this one will pan out. Another surprise?

[Geos]

Quite the turnaround in snow cover over the lower 48...53% covered with snow and after today's storm, might be well over 60% by tomorrow which is close to 2x above normal for this time of year.

 

 

Edit: Might be overdone in KS/MO due to the sleet/fzrn the model is accounting for.

 

Will be interesting tomorrow to see how the NWC handles the sleet and snow cover. lol

[Geos]

Who's ready for some more snow!?

 

Models have a small snow wave coming through the western Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Probably a 1-2" event by the looks of it. All models have the system.

 

Sample

 

 

[Tom]

Will be interesting tomorrow to see how the NWC handles the sleet and snow cover. lol

Nope...not quite...lol...this is prob a good illustration of what "coulda" happened if it were 5 degrees colder!  Doh!

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201512/nsm_depth_2015122905_National.jpg

[westMJim]

Here in Grand Rapids we had .90” of total precipitation reported yesterday.  1.6” of sleet/snow (I have just over 1.5” of sleet/snow on the ground) So my road and grass is now al white for the first time this winter.  (the last time it snowed in November only the grassy areas had snow cover) Now for the month GR has 2.2” of snow (5.7” for the season) Also for December Grand Rapids the mean temp is now at 39.9° and that is still +10.4° for the month.  

[james1976]

DMX is saying maybe an inch tomorrow but they also say these waves have the tendency to over perform. And that's exactly what happened on Chrstmas Eve when I got 4.2".

[Tom]

DMX is saying maybe an inch tomorrow but they also say these waves have the tendency to over perform. And that's exactly what happened on Chrstmas Eve when I got 4.2".

Agree, but this speed max isn't nearly as strong but we'll just have to see how it goes tomorrow.  NAM is getting a little better with a general 1-3".  I'd be very please to squeeze out 1.5" out of this to cover up this ice!

[Tony]

As it looks now the heavier qpf will be out towards far western burbs but could still see an inch or so closer to the city. As noted above these waves could over produce but at least it will be a nice coating of snow to close out the end of the year. Maybe could squeeze out some flurries on New Years Eve as well.

[Geos]

Well the sleet accumulations are added to the seasonal snow total - like I was thinking.

http://www.weather.gov/lot/2015dec28

 

So now at 22.0" for the season. Running well ahead of last year.

[Geos]

12km and 4km NAM.

Snow might manage to fluff up to over 10:1.

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Sure would make for a nice end to the trip to pickup another inch or so tomorrow before I head home Thursday.

 

Unfortunately the 18z NAM is coming in drier.

[Geos]

Sure would make for a nice end to the trip to pickup another inch or so tomorrow before I head home Thursday.

 

Unfortunately the 18z NAM is coming in drier.

 

Weird that a SW system would trend down in precipitation. That's rarely the case. 

NAM simulated radar looks great tomorrow afternoon.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

DVN said .7"-1" is there forecast, but "some very old school methods" suggest as much as 1-5"-2"..... Whatever that means.

[bainbridgekid]

DVN said .7"-1" is there forecast, but "some very old school methods" suggest as much as 1-5"-2"..... Whatever that means.

Not sure what they're refering to, but that's interesting. LOT also seemed to be hinting at something similar.

 

18z GFS and NAM definitely look more like 0.5-1" at the most but I know these things can sometimes overperform a bit.

[Geos]

Still about an inch in the forecast for tomorrow. Wait and see what happens I guess. The sleet and snow is so hard outside, I can walk across it and sink in.

 

Looks like band will travel right through KC. Some decent radar returns in northern TX.

[Tom]

Skilling's take on tonight's/tomorrow's wave...also talks about the previous system...

 

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/12/feature123015-762x1024.jpg

[Geos]

Snow is breaking out in eastern Kansas nicely.

[bainbridgekid]

Snow is breaking out in eastern Kansas nicely.

I just want to see some real flakes and to see the places I cleared yesterday get coated again.

 

But the HRRR looking pretty sparse apart from LES spots.

 

[Geos]

I just want to see some real flakes and to see the places I cleared yesterday get coated again.

 

But the HRRR looking pretty sparse apart from LES spots.

 

totp_t7sfc_f24.png

 

Hopefully will get a surprise and the nose of the jet can produce some banding in the area.