December Observations and Discussions

[Maxim]

Extreme cold is completely useless too.

[winterfreak]

I think the effects of the nino will start to wane come February, though I'm not completely sold on the idea that February will end up colder than normal. I think January will largely be a continuation of this month given the Pacific jet that doesn't appear to be going anywhere for a while.

Me neither. There's this notion that if the first half of winter torches then the pattern has to change and the law of averages and climo will take over. This isn't a typical winter though. Wouldn't surprise me if we have + departures the whole rest of the winter season. At least we're getting plenty of moisture.

[Maxim]

Great post Tom. I had the overall pattern transition start time pretty close and some others did as well, but I honestly didn't account for the lag in propagation of the cold into the US. This was a pretty big oversight on my part. Really thought the blocking ridge over the eastern US would have lifted NE a little faster as well. Gives me more research to do when I get the spare time to figure out why this happened. There's a possibility that it may be QBO related and it's something I honestly know an extremely little amount about. All in all it appears that I'll most likely be giving myself a pretty terrible grade for December when the month is over and that bothers me quite a bit but more stuff to learn and improve on is always fun as well.

All that being said, the pattern is changing, the cold is coming, and it will be a lot of fun when it gets here.

Good luck with that, any pattern changes that do occur look to be transient. Of course you were wrong about December, why would you have expected this month to end up colder than normal when we're in the midst of the strongest nino ever recorded in modern history? Teleconnections wouldn't have supported a cold December either. Seemed almost knee-jerk to me.

[Maxim]

Me neither. There's this notion that if the first half of winter torches then the pattern has to change and the law of averages and climo will take over. This isn't a typical winter though. Wouldn't surprise me if we have + departures the whole rest of the winter season. At least we're getting plenty of moisture.

yup, and strong ninos actually support + departures for the entire winter for the Chicago area at least. 

[jaster220]

Extreme cold is completely useless too.

 

..unless you're an ice fisherman - duh!

 

Edit: My avatar is bringing you your daily dose of ice - need not look to the wx

[gosaints]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

[Geos]

^Both the GEM and GFS show a couple day warm up like the EURO has above, before the Arctic air comes back on the 23rd.

 

Big snowstorms are exciting of course, but I enjoy smaller powdery ones too. Last couple winters I really enjoyed the clipper train with light snows on and off every couple days. Snow never had a change to get dirty. I don't really care for the winter storms with all the wind though. Makes it a lot less enjoyable being out in it.

[gosaints]

^Both the GEM and GFS show a couple day warm up like the EURO has above, before the Arctic air comes back on the 23rd.

 

Big snowstorms are exciting of course, but I enjoy smaller powdery ones too. Last couple winters I really enjoyed the clipper train with light snows on and off every couple days. Snow never had a change to get dirty. I don't really care for the winter storms with all the wind though. Makes it a lot less enjoyable being out in it.

Ensembles in no way resemble the op.  The warmth is looking more muted but the cold shots I doubt will be impressive.

 

The GFS and Canadian ensembles are quite similar in the 11-15 day range

[Geos]

Ensembles in no way resemble the op.  The warmth is looking more muted but the cold shots I doubt will be impressive.

 

The GFS and Canadian ensembles are quite similar in the 11-15 day range

 

As long as it can get down to more seasonable, that would be good enough for me.

 

A side reason I want it to cool off is because all this mild air is stirring up my allergies. Last two days I've had a stuffy head and congestion.

[Maxim]

It'll cool off to seasonable next week, no doubt about that. Beyond that though it gets a little more uncertain.

[Tom]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

That's the part of the LRC warm phase that hit in the beginning of November I knew would circle back right around the Solstice.  Euro Ensembles are showing it only lasting for 2-3 days, then another deep trough carves out in the west and storminess develops in the central CONUS right around Christmas.  Hopefully we can track a big storm right around the holiday.

[OKwx2k4]

Good luck with that, any pattern changes that do occur look to be transient. Of course you were wrong about December, why would you have expected this month to end up colder than normal when we're in the midst of the strongest nino ever recorded in modern history? Teleconnections wouldn't have supported a cold December either. Seemed almost knee-jerk to me.

Classy guy right there. Where's your forecast at?

[winterfreak]

Nice little storm showing up on Christmas. Thermals would support snow at least. Really grasping for anything at this point. I'd be happy with some mood flakes at this point.

[Maxim]

Classy guy right there. Where's your forecast at?

I already called for a torchy December a while back, I'm not sure how you could forget.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow. 00z gfs through 114 hours. Hello western and central Nebraska

 

[Tom]

Wow. 00z gfs through 114 hours. Hello western and central Nebraska

 

image.jpg

Yup, wouldn't be surprised if this system took a southern shift and nailed NE.  After the first storm departs, normally systems track farther south or about the same.  During this period, there will be a -AO/-NAO established as well.

[NEJeremy]

I keep waiting for the southeast shift too, but so far every model run hasn't really changed anything with the track

[GDR]

[Tom]

I keep waiting for the southeast shift too, but so far every model run hasn't really changed anything with the track

I expect it to shift SE, your in a good spot...this storm has eyes set on NE.  Once the models get a better handle on a deepening trough post-departing system, it usually sends the next system on its heels farther south.  Tonight's 00z run is the most southerly route yet, takes it down to SW KS which is a perfect storm track for you guys.  It shouldn't cut up northeast that fast.

[GDR]

It shouldn't cut ne at all. Great spot for you

[winterfreak]

The Bering Sea low now projected to bottom out at 925mb. Man that is epic. Too bad it probably won't have much of an impact on the overall pattern we're in now.

[Tom]

00z GFS...interesting winter solstice storm potential in the Plains/Midwest.  If the second storm does in fact start shifting south, it will cause the entire pattern to shift away from the ridge that was being forecast during this period.  

 

The Bering Sea low now projected to bottom out at 925mb. Man that is epic. Too bad it probably won't have much of an impact on the overall pattern we're in now.

That system alone is causing the AO to flip negative and raising heights out ahead of it.  It has a big impact to our weather down stream.  Now, we need to watch how the second monster Bearing Sea system  Day 6-8 influences the weather near the arctic.

[winterfreak]

It just seems like a much smaller scale feature in the overall pattern. Yeah that storm that's uhh 300+ hours out looks pretty interesting. Might be the last chance of seeing the first flakes of the winter season in December.

[Maxim]

If every storm in the Pacific/Bering Sea affected our weather pattern, we'd be cold 90% of the time.

[Tom]

If every storm in the Pacific/Bering Sea affected our weather pattern, we'd be cold 90% of the time.

It depends on the track of the system.  If it enters the Bearing Sea from the SW and then slams into AK, it won't produce a -AO.  On the other hand, if it cuts west of AK, then it will effect the AO.

[Geos]

That monster is intense!

 

Definitely looking to stay west of AK.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro continues with tonight's trend in the models shifting the mid week storm farther SE....will post maps when they fully load...it also is slowing the system down much more than the 12z run

[Geos]

Might be able to pull off a white Christmas if this system keeps on trending east.

 

 

Plenty of cold air coming down.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...it's also showing a potent arctic shot next Fri-Sat...high temps near 10F for MSP....trending colder as the Bearing Sea low tracks west of AK almost due north towards the Pole.  Alaska warms up quite a bit because of this track and almost dislodges the coldest air over the Pole.  By Day 9, the north Pole warms up dramatically...practically a complete reversal.  We'll have to see more runs to buy into it.

[Tom]

@ Jaster & WestJim, I know it's still a ways out, but next Fri-Sun could spawn a significant Lake Effect set-up....especially since Lake Michigan is very warm for mid December standards.  GRR would cash in big time with a W/NW off the lake for 24-36 hours.

 

Pockets of 48F water temps and with -10C/-15C 850's your talking crazy snow squalls with the right wind direction that can push very far inland.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

 

Edit: A repeat performance for Buffalo, NY is on the table...maybe not as wild as last November, but could be a multi-day event.

[Ken M]

i like my snow chances

[clintbeed1993]

i like my snow chances

 

Welcome to the forum Ken!  Where are you from?

[westMJim]

@ Jaster & WestJim, I know it's still a ways out, but next Fri-Sun could spawn a significant Lake Effect set-up....especially since Lake Michigan is very warm for mid December standards.  GRR would cash in big time with a W/NW off the lake for 24-36 hours.

 

Pockets of 48F water temps and with -10C/-15C 850's your talking crazy snow squalls with the right wind direction that can push very far inland.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

 

Edit: A repeat performance for Buffalo, NY is on the table...maybe not as wild as last November, but could be a multi-day event.

Yes its now looking like we will have a better chance of getting some good lake effect starting on Friday.  That is if this play out right. With the right wind direction where I live could do real well. In fact I would not be too surprised if areas 10 to 20 miles inland get more snow then closer to the lake as the temps of the lake could be too warm and cause it to be rain nearer the shore. 

[NEJeremy]

00z Euro...it's also showing a potent arctic shot next Fri-Sat...high temps near 10F for MSP....trending colder as the Bearing Sea low tracks west of AK almost due north towards the Pole.  Alaska warms up quite a bit because of this track and almost dislodges the coldest air over the Pole.  By Day 9, the north Pole warms up dramatically...practically a complete reversal.  We'll have to see more runs to buy into it.

 

That second map of the euro snowfall showing snowfall from the second storm is basically the same path it's been showing for a week now. Hoping to still see the further southeast shift

[Tom]

Yes its now looking like we will have a better chance of getting some good lake effect starting on Friday.  That is if this play out right. With the right wind direction where I live could do real well. In fact I would not be too surprised if areas 10 to 20 miles inland get more snow then closer to the lake as the temps of the lake could be too warm and cause it to be rain nearer the shore. 

The intensity of this arctic air mass on the Euro should overcome any lakeside warming.  When we saw Lehs from the late November snowstorm here, temps were in the upper 20's and Lake/Cook county still saw snow.  During that event, it wasn't nearly as cold as this arctic blast that is showing up.

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles locked with positive ao

[Snowshoe]

At this point I'll settle for safe ice on the lakes. The GFS doesn't sustain the cold long enough for that to happen.

[gosaints]

At this point I'll settle for safe ice on the lakes. The GFS doesn't sustain the cold long enough for that to happen.

It finally flipped to what the ensembles have been.showing

[gosaints]

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[gosaints]

Not often a low cuts near la crosse only to have the next one cut over soiux falls..