December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is more amplified at HR 192 up over Aleutians/western Alaska compared to previous runs. Still too progressive, but this is another small step in the right direction.

 

 

Trough bottoms out on Christmas Day on the 00Z GFS with an 850mb temp around -4C.     And then the progression train starts up again.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

[liquidsnow]

So a zero chance of a white christmas? Awesome.

[Gradient Keeper]

Too much energy blasting through the Aleutians.... Need that strong low to lift into Bering Sea.... nope, not ideal pattern yet.

[TT-SEA]

MM5 still shows about 3 feet of snow at Snoqualmie Pass by the weekend.     And Saturday looks like heaven up there... upper 20s with partly cloudy skies and about 6 feet of snow on the slopes. 

 

I told my son that they are pretty much guaranteed to be open until March now.   

 

Total snow from now until Saturday afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Anyone like the long range 00Z Canadian tonight??

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Timmy]

Anyone like the long range 00Z Canadian tonight??

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

No

[MossMan]

Ridge is more amplified at HR 192 up over Aleutians/western Alaska compared to previous runs. Still too progressive, but this is another small step in the right direction.

Seems like the baby steps are continuing...by the time it happens we should be good to go!

[MossMan]

No

Seems like the GEM is flopping all over.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like the baby steps are continuing...by the time it happens we should be good to go!

 

No.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is pretty blah

[Timmy]

No.

 

Yes?

[stuffradio]

No.   

No.

[High Desert Mat]

Tim, you remind me of that kid that always had the cool toys but no one wanted to play with. Kind of strange being that you're an adult now and have kids older than that. Keep being optimistic Rob, most of us love it.

[Gradient Keeper]

We do have a nice trend with the GFS each run showing a slightly stronger/amplified ridge that isn't being shoved southeast as abruptly, we have bitter air moving into Alaska-Yukon a bit sooner, and a southeast US ridge building before day 10. We have a few nice things that show some promise for the 500mb pattern/cold blast/snow?, but the biggest issue remains the progressive nature of the overall pattern.

[TT-SEA]

 Keep being optimistic Rob, most of us love it.

 

 

Rob is realistic.     With a flair for drama!  

[Guest Winterdog]

I think we will have a model agreement trifecta tonight.

[TT-SEA]

I think we will have an model agreement trifecta tonight.

 

 

Agreement on what?   So far we are 0 for 2.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We do have a nice trend with the GFS each run showing a slightly stronger/amplified ridge that isn't being shoved southeast as abruptly, we have bitter air moving into Alaska-Yukon a bit sooner, and a southeast US ridge building before day 10. We have a few nice things that show some promise for the 500mb pattern/cold blast/snow?, but the biggest issue remains the progressive nature of the overall pattern.

Sadly, The progressive pattern will most likely be the spoiler. To many carrots... To little meat and potatoes.

[liquidsnow]

I'm dreaming of a ridgy Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the treetops are on fire,
and children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the sand

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas
With every Christmas card I write
May your days be merry and mean
And may all your Christmases be green
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not much hope right now...

[TT-SEA]

Insane... if you add up the total snow on the WRF for the next week it shows about 7 feet at Snoqualmie Pass.     And not a flake at my house just 15 minutes away.  

 

Skiing nirvana!    So great for the resorts.   Lining up perfectly for the holiday break.

[Gradient Keeper]

Waiting anxiously to see if there are any improvements with 00z 850mb Ensembles....

 

00z ECMWF begins in 27 minutes

[liquidsnow]

Waiting anxiously to see if there are any improvements with 00z 850mb Ensembles....

 

00z ECMWF begins in 27 minutes

 

Let's play the "I expect a ______" game

 

I'll go first, I expect a crappy run with lots of ridging.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's play the "I expect a ______" game

 

I'll go first, I expect a crappy run with lots of ridging.

I have no idea what to expect. I expect absolutely nothing since we don't have a solid trend within all model camps and we're 10 days out. I would like it to more closely follow the GFS and I definitely don't want to see any sign of the GEM solution.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles 850mb No improvements and maybe a slight touch warmer.

[Guest Winterdog]

Agreement on what?   So far we are 0 for 2.

Agreement on a snowless December and disappointing to a weenie like me.

[TT-SEA]

Agreement on a snowless December and disappointing to a weenie like me.

 

 

I am focusing on the mountains and skiing... and will be happy with any dry day or glimpse of the sun.    Small pleasures!

[Timmy]

The pattern is way too progressive right now. We should have a much better opportunity to score in early January.

Why will things be better in January?

[TT-SEA]

Why will things be better in January?

 

 

PV breaks up.   A least it will shake things up.   We might score at the onset of that change.   

[Timmy]

PV breaks up.   A least it will shake things up.   We might score at the onset of that change.

 

You mean it is forecast to? Is this phil's take?

[TT-SEA]

You mean it is forecast to? Is this phil's take?

Yes.

[stuffradio]

00Z = Atmospheric river right on time for the New Year's celebrations. Yay!

[TT-SEA]

00Z = Atmospheric river right on time for the New Year's celebrations. Yay!

 

 

Not that it matters... but the end of the run is New Years Day and its nice.   Of course it shows an 850mb temp of +3C at this time... but its really dry!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_precip_p12.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Brief cold shot/snow? leading to a inversion/low-level cold pattern..... Hi, El Nino, you ugly bastard

[stuffradio]

Not that it matters... but the end of the run is New Years Day and its nice.   Of course it shows an 850mb temp of +3C at this time... but its really dry!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_precip_p12.gif

Yeah, I'll wait until the 27th/28th to worry about the forecast for New year's.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I'll wait until the 27th/28th to worry about the forecast for New year's.

 

 

But you seemed a little worried about heavy rain for your New Years celebration.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF HR 72

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_2.png

[westiztehbest]

Got 3" this morning.  Temps have plummeted with clearing skies tonight.  12F.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Got 3" this morning.  Temps have plummeted with clearing skies tonight.  12F.

have been thinking about moving to Spokane (south hill area). How do you like living there. I really love the weather as it seems like you guys have 4 seasons.

[stuffradio]

But you seemed a little worried about heavy rain for your New Years celebration.  

I am, it's very sad to see such things.