Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 EURO and Canadian showed a nice snowstorm for parts of Nebraska Sunday Night. They have the low much stronger and actually show it closing off and taking a pretty favorable track for the Central Plains. Will need to be watched to see if the models follow suite tonight. Nice.If it's still there in 24 hours, will start a thread. Just wish it wasn't hooking northwards that quickly... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 NAM really winding the storm up and cutting it farther east on Monday. I know it's not very accurate this far out, but it's showing a little backside snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 12z EPS/Control...still trying to paint some snows in KS/NE/W IA...deepening systems can provide some interesting surprises as we get closer and the energy becomes fully sampled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 I bet folks in Omaha and Lincoln would pay money to see the EPS map come true! 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Could someone post snowfall map for the new EURO? Thing looks like a monster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 How much rain are we talking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like flooding rains up the 2 1/2 inches possible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 congrats sw ia ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015121112/namconus_asnow_us_29.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015121112/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png (still snowing hr 60hr on nam 4km in eastern nebraska) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 man this is alot of moisture for a december rainstorm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 12z gfs says what snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 It's not going to snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Still didn't catch a glimpse of the EURO last night, but GFS is sucky. Let's remember how well the NAM did on the last storm around these parts though. Edit: This storm reminds me of the March 2007 blizzard that dropped 17" in Omaha. Was supposed to be centered around Western Iowa, but the very narrow band exploded over Eastern Nebraska, without warning. The potency of this storm is there, just have to wait and see if it can do something similar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 12z RGEM starting to look like the 00z Euro run from last night and developing a healthy looking defo band in KS/CO as the storm deepens and transitions from rain to snow. The Euro/Control dumped 6"+ in parts of NE/KS and it looks like the high rez models may be heading that way. This system may end up being a nowcast type of storm to see who gets snow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121112/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 12z GFS is not as far south and east with the snow as the GEM.Difference is that the GEM deepens the low a bit quicker and the temperatures over eastern Nebraska are a couple degrees colder on the GEM. Looks like a "thread the needle event". GFS vs. GEM at 850 mb. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 It's beginning to look like a muddy Christmas everywhere you go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 I sure like the GEM model for my area of Central Nebraska, but not holding out hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 WSW for southwest kansas????? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS200 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TOSOUTHWEST KANSAS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAYEVENING...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BEHEAVY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY SUNDAYEVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE WET...AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHWESTWINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOIMPROVE ON MONDAY.KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-076>080-086>089-121200-/O.NEW.KDDC.WS.A.0002.151213T0600Z-151214T0600Z/TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...RUSH CENTER...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...JETMORE...HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...SUBLETTE...SATANTA...CIMARRON...MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER...ASHLAND...MINNEOLA...COLDWATER...PROTECTION200 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2015 /100 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2015/...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL LATE SATURDAYNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAYEVENING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES AREEXPECTED.* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILLAVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ON SUNDAY...BEFOREDIMINISHING GRADUALLY SUNDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND STRONGWINDS WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. SLUSH AND WET SNOWACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 they must be buying the gem how was the 12z euro? edit: 12z euro throws snow down in that area and central/east central nebraska as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 they must be buying the gem how was the 12z euro? edit: 12z euro thows snow down in that area and central/east central nebraska as well That's what I'm thinking. Well then if the EURO agrees... I hope you guys get some too. Special weather statement issued by AMA.Storm is going to really dig if they're expecting snow also. Could be some good snow runs for Nebraska coming up soon....LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXASPANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THESOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT ANDSUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOTHE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMSMAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATIONCHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVESSOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TOSOUTHEAST. SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE LATE SATURDAYNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SUNDAYAS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLEACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH LESSTHAN ONE INCH ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXASPANHANDLE. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXASPANHANDLES. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 they must be buying the gem how was the 12z euro? edit: 12z euro throws snow down in that area and central/east central nebraska as wellIf that's the case, then we should see those watches get expanded northeastward. Should be an interesting battle tonight and into tomorrow with the computer models that's for sure! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 hmm lollipop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015121118/namconus_asnow_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015121118/nam4km_asnow_us_21.pngstill snowing hr 60 eastern nebraska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Very interesting developments are underway! One thing I have seen an increase in is the amount of precipitation, here is the current forecast by the HPC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 hmm lollipop That would be indicative of convection possibly?! Lets see what the GFS has to say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Will be waiting anxiously for the forecast discussions to see what model nws Hastings is buying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Will be waiting anxiously for the forecast discussions to see what model nws Hastings is buying.I'm betting they will be blending models for their forecast.....can't wait to read though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Let's hope it is good news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 The NAM is a useless model. I will wait for the GFS and Euro before I get excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Have to go and keep a scorebook for jv boys basketball now so will have to get updates when I am done at 6 pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 NAM has been very good within 48 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 GFS is garbage, the system takes an absolutely perfect track, but it doesn't pull the cold air down behind it. It looks odd to me, but so does the NAM. With a potent system like this, I think it will be pulled down and somewhere in Nebraska/Iowa will get destroyed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 From the Hastings disco-WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENTTHAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TO HAVE ASIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITHTHE SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALSACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 18Z NAM...MAINTAININGABOUT ONE INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OFHIGHWAY 183.AHEAD OF THIS LOW...EXPECT MOISTURE TO START STREAMING ACROSS THELOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW...AND WITH SOME VERYMODEST MU CAPE VALUES...DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OFISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.ELSEWHERE...WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT...EXPECT RAINFALL TOOVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYMORNING...WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAYSUNDAY.WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS...WITH THEEC GENERALLY DOUBLING QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS...THEBIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE LOCALAREA...INDICATING A TRANSITION FROM A COLD RAIN TO SNOW. THE GOODNEWS IS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE COOLER AIR AT THESURFACE...MEANING THAT WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW...BUTLIKELY NOT A FREEZING MIXTURE DURING THIS EVENT. SO WHILEGENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE SATURDAYNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...JUST WHEN EXACTLY THESWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ONSNOWFALL TOTALS.AFTER MUCH ANALYSIS...COULD NOT REASON THE TRANSITION BEFOREDAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THEMID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE THIS COLDER AIR WILL BEREACHING THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PRECIP IS GENERALLY WINDINGDOWN...OPTED TO HAVE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN SOME OF OURNEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT LARGELY IN LINE WITH THENATIONAL CENTERS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE INCHACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA. From Omaha-THE DEFORMATION BAND THEN SETS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAYNIGHT...AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR FINALLY BEGINS WORKING INTOTHE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO A WINTRY MIX INNORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLYWORKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGHDAYBREAK. COULD SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND IN INCH INNORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS FAR EAST ASABOUT HIGHWAY 77/75. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2015 Report Share Posted December 11, 2015 Boy this is not the case from goodland and dodge city. They are hitting this storm hard. Sure seems like nws Hastings thinks it is mostly a rain event. Not sure how southwest Kansas will be cold enough. I guess we will see who is ultimately correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 IMO Hastings is being careful as they have busted bad lately, same with Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 You are correct. They are usually very conservative with snow amounts anyway but busted in an earlier storm. They will obviously wait until the event to issue headlines if needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 This will be a classic battle of the models to see who wins. EURO has been consistently strong, GFS consistently flat and weak. I'm putting my eggs in the EURO considering the GFS has been God awful. This thing has amazing potential but not gunna lie, I will be awfully pissed if this storm gets wasted on cold rain. It's taking the perfect track for a snowstorm in Nebraska and we really deserve one after how terrible these last few years have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 18z RGEM staying put in a sweet looking defo band setting up in W KS at HR48. This is as far out as the model goes. I had a hunch this storm would bring surprises. Love tracking deepening storm systems like these. Hope it lays down a nice swath of heavy snows in the central Plains. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121118/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 With you Clint. For fun I just looked and accuweather and wunderground have me at 4-8 inches on Sunday for what it is worth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 Right on my doorstep Tom. Will be excited to track it this weekend. My Kids already asking about a snow day Monday. I told them to be patient way to much could change by then but fun discussions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 New NAM is further West and matches the high resolution models better. Central Nebraska looks like a good spot to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2015 Report Share Posted December 12, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015121200/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_20.png Holy balls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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