CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks Tom. I like the 12z euro for Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 How quickly the models can change, ay??? This is going to be by far the largest winter storm of the season. SOI is starting to fall along with the MJO entering favorable colder phases as we close the books on this extremely warm month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks Tom. I like the 12z euro for NebraskaI sure hope this storm can dump a significant snow your way. Would be a great way to kick start a different pattern as we move into January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I sure hope this storm can dump a significant snow your way. Would be a great way to kick start a different pattern as we move into January. Holy verbatim I havent seen an ice set up the EURO in a long time just checked out the weatherunderground euro maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 EURO shows five inches of rain. Come on shallow cold air and low. Track about a hundred miles SE would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 We are still several days away from this being anywhere close to being locked in and there will be many more shifts both ways. NW shifts have been the way to go in this early part of the winter season so lets see if the trend stops with this storm. Baby steps SE have been the trend so far today and I believe the Canadian has been the farthest SE the past several runs compared to the other models. Not saying it's right but something to keep an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Sorry gabel23...just noticed you pretty much posted the same thoughts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 We are still several days away from this being anywhere close to being locked in and there will be many more shifts both ways. NW shifts have been the way to go in this early part of the winter season so lets see if the trend stops with this storm. Baby steps SE have been the trend so far today and I believe the Canadian has been the farthest SE the past several runs compared to the other models. Not saying it's right but something to keep an eye on.As this pattern evolves (I don't believe we are locked in yet) and with dramatic changes suggested in January one would have to agree that a SE nudge over the next few runs should be anticipated. Kinda leans back to a post I made yesterday about places as far as east Tulsa to Durant in my state keeping a very close eye on things. I talked myself out of it though. Thinking now it may have been a solid call for being so early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 As this pattern evolves (I don't believe we are locked in yet) and with dramatic changes suggested in January one would have to agree that a SE nudge over the next few runs should be anticipated. Kinda leans back to a post I made yesterday about places as far as east Tulsa to Durant in my state keeping a very close eye on things. I talked myself out of it though. Thinking now it may have been a solid call for being so early.Where in OK are you located? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING ONSETOF PCPN IS RATHER LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES FOUND BTWN THEECM AND GFS. IN PARTICULAR...HOW EACH LIFT A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROMTHE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGH THRU MONDAYEVENING WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN THE FASTER OF THE TWO. HOWEVER ANDUNFORTUNATELY...BOTH MODELS AGREE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY SNACCUM WITHIN THE CWA TAKING PLACE NEXT MONDAY. THIS SYSTEMDEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS MAY WELL BE THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORMOF THE SEASON FOR US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO TIMING ONSETOF PCPN IS RATHER LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES FOUND BTWN THEECM AND GFS. IN PARTICULAR...HOW EACH LIFT A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROMTHE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGH THRU MONDAYEVENING WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN THE FASTER OF THE TWO. HOWEVER ANDUNFORTUNATELY...BOTH MODELS AGREE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY SNACCUM WITHIN THE CWA TAKING PLACE NEXT MONDAY. THIS SYSTEMDEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS MAY WELL BE THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORMOF THE SEASON FOR US. Man that's an early disco, they never put them out this early! Meanwhile, Dodge City, Ks already putting out information about this weekend. I just wish it could be here already because this thing is going to be changing back and forth until we get there! I won't be able to handle myself! I must say though, this is taking a very similar path as the X mas blizzard of 2009! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's funny that you mention 2009 there gabel. I pulled up a snowcover map of Dec 15, 2009 and it looked eerily similar to the paths some of the early winter storms have taken. Not saying that this year will be like that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 can't wait for some more heavy rain... congrats to those in NE though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Make sure your ice skates are sharpened if the Euro is right... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Make sure you ice skates are sharpened if the Euro is right...This would be a heck of an ice storm if this came to fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 This would be a heck of an ice storm if this came to fruition.I sure hope not, kinda wish this would be more of a bowling ball system. I'd rather be crippled by a Blizzard then a crippling ice storm. There is going to be a lot of low level cold air if that HP gets stronger or is placed farther west. Who knows how this transpires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 The models take the deep -PNA to about neutral during this period. We may see a less pronounced east coast ridge in the coming days. At the same time, the EPO tanks towards neutral as well. Models have been busting high on the EPO from a few days ago. Trending lower as move closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I sure hope not, kinda wish this would be more of a bowling ball system. I'd rather be crippled by a Blizzard then a crippling ice storm. There is going to be a lot of low level cold air if that HP gets stronger or is placed farther west. Who knows how this transpires.The ground would be pretty warm to start but probably would not take long to ice up. I know ice storms are hard to come by around Chicago but not out of the question. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 The ground would be pretty warm to start but probably would not take long to ice up. I know ice storms are hard to come by around Chicago but not out of the question.Probably a bigger threat further inland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 No ice storm please. Have heard enough stories about 02 disaster around here to know that it is a nightmare to deal with. Rain will do just fine if the aforementioned is the only other option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Make sure your ice skates are sharpened if the Euro is right... Where and when are you referring to Tom? I have that flight Monday morning and I don't need anything holding it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I took this from nws Dodge City Kansas. They are taking this seriously 4 days out. Saturday...Strong cutoff low settles into SE AZ by 6 pm, withwidespread diffluence aloft and warm air advection spreading overthe plains. Currently, feel Saturday will begin dry, with cloudsthickening and lowering. Widespread wintry mix of rain, freezingrain and snow expected to overspread SW KS late Saturdayafternoon, with thermal profiles determining precipitation phase.Travel conditions will begin deteriorating late Saturday. Northwinds will increase dramatically late Saturday, gusting near40 mph, in response to surface cyclogenesis beginning in W TX,and 1040 mb surface high building into western Nebraska. Sunday and Monday...Medium range models, including the latest 12zGFS/ECMWF runs, have come into much better agreement regarding theevolution of a strong winter storm expected to impact the plains.It is emphasized, that just because the models agree 4-5 days awayfrom the storm`s arrival, does not mean the storm track can`tchange between now and then. Please stay tuned through theremainder of the week as the forecast evolves. Current depictionsof the ECWMF model storm track shows a potentially cripplingsnowstorm/blizzard from eastern New Mexico, to the TexasPanhandle, the Oklahoma Panhandle, SE Colorado, and western KansasSunday and Monday. This storm system is expected to intensify asit lifts NE, suggesting deformation and forcing will be intense,indeed models are cranking out QPF values of 0.50-1 inch in only 6hour periods. Currently, forecasted thermodynamic profiles andthicknesses suggest that much of this precipitation will take theform of a heavy, wet windblown snow. As such, very heavy snowfallamounts are expected...HOWEVER...the exact amounts and locationsof these amounts are still beyond the scope of the science ofmeteorology. Details will become clearer over the next 2-3 days.Suffice to say, computer models continue to indicate the potentialfor a crippling blizzard for SW KS Sunday and Monday, and holidaytravelers returning home this weekend will be impacted. Stay tunedfor the latest, and keep a winter weather survival kit in your vehicle 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is the moisture plot for 7 days. Just incredible for such a huge area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Tom look bad for ice up here as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is the moisture plot for 7 days. Just incredible for such a huge area.WOW. That is something you would expect to see in May or June. NOT in December, incredible. LRC at it's finest, we knew going into this year the LRC set up to favor the Southern Plains. Throw in the El Nino and you have some incredible storm totals. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Tom look bad for ice up here as well?Unfortunately, Yes... Where and when are you referring to Tom? I have that flight Monday morning and I don't need anything holding it up.12z Euro shows precip knocking on the door just before Noon on Monday. Meantime, 12z EPS target the central Plains for a major snow storm and possibly crippling Blizzard looking likely this far out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 This is the moisture plot for 7 days. Just incredible for such a huge area.I'm under an X on that map. :-( Stupid weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Where are you seeing the ice on the Euro Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Unfortunately, Yes... 12z Euro shows precip knocking on the door just before Noon on Monday. Meantime, 12z EPS target the central Plains for a major snow storm and possibly crippling Blizzard looking likely this far out.WOW that would for sure make up for the crappy past couple years around here!!! That is 2+ feet of snow in SW Kansas, amazing!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Wow. This could be a Christmas miracle that many of us would love for a present. Waiting for nws Hastings forecast discussion to come out in the next hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Where are you seeing the ice on the Euro Tom?IA/N IL/WI/S MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 How much ice in ia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Where are you seeing the ice on the Euro Tom?You and me are in for a Rainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Green Bay AFD: A SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGINGSOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC ANDONTARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ASIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE/RAIN STORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE IFTHESE MODELS ARE RIGHT. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GFS Ensembles nearly all have some sort of storm system: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f150.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jim flowers Facebook page with a new video. He is using euro model. Low tracks over Kansas City with Kansas and Nebraska getting rocked with snow if all verifies. Always a good source of detailed information if you have a couple of minutes. Meteorologist for kmtv in Omaha. Not in my local area but good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Didn't realize some at nws Omaha not fans of snow. HOWEVER ANDUNFORTUNATELY...BOTH MODELS AGREE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEFTY SNACCUM WITHIN THE CWA TAKING PLACE NEXT MONDAY. THIS SYSTEMDEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS MAY WELL BE THE FIRST REAL WINTER STORMOF THE SEASON FOR US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Chicago AFD at least mentioning the possibility of some snow at the beginning and end of this system. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHERNHALF OF THE REGION...WITH THE RAIN TEMPORARILY SHIFTING SOUTH.HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACELOW...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BYMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES INWHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BEGIN TOSPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY BYLATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THEREGION...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION MAY ONSET AS A WINTER MIXLATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TOLIFT BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP SHOULDCHANGE TO RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTOMONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD ENDAS A PERIOD OF -SN UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW EARLY ON TUESDAY.HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CONDITIONS WILL GET COLD ENOUGHFOR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. I noticed the 12z GFS was the first run to show a quick couple inches Monday morning before switching to rain. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122212/gfs_asnow_ncus_26.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not sure if precip images were posted but: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122212/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 You and me are in for a Rainer.Yeah. More like flood if the Euro verifies. An entire winter worth of rain in 30 days is not good. What I was meaning was where do I find ice accumulations on the euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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