Niko Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Cant wait to see the outcome of this storm. Fun tracking for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 all the ensembles are showing a western lakes cutter, not sure what you're talking about.Nearly 50 out of 51 Euro Ensemble members have the storm cutting near the lower lakes or a bit SE. Your prob reading into the GEFS way to much. Actually, the GEFS are trending SE...pick your model as you chose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like we have a wish caster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z NAM looks like it starts digging/phasing towards the end of its run. Lot's of time to see how this one plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nearly 50 out of 51 Euro Ensemble members have the storm cutting near the lower lakes or a bit SE. Your prob reading into the GEFS way to much. Actually, the GEFS are trending SE...pick your model as you chose. Are there a number of cutters to N Indiana/S Lower Michigan in there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Are there a number of cutters to N Indiana/S Lower Michigan in there?Plenty... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I won't buy into any model till the players are east of the Rockies and beginning to develop. Models having difficult time figuring out what to do with the pieces of energy....one to the north & south...as well as the retrograding trough near Hudson Bay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 if this storm plays its cards right could be a big storm around here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 if this storm plays its cards right could be a big storm around here. It would probably have to track to Dubuque to give NW Iowa a big storm, I'd say that's unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm in E IA, so there is a decent chance(changed location to reflect that) NWLinnIA is kinda misleading Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm in E IA, so there is a decent chance Oh yeah, I didn't see that, I saw NW, but didn't register Linn is the county you're in (or city). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 One thing I noticed at the end of the NAM is that the cold air is moving southward faster than on the GFS. It's picking up on low level cold air better over snow covered areas. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS taking her straight east thru missu, colder too. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Starting to see a trend somewhat now. Low wants to cut through KS into MO on most models. At least there's some cold air in back of it. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I trend I won't shoot down GFS orients its snowband kind of strange though Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Would really like it if there was more cold air in lower MI. Not a lot of snow on the backside. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ggem gets the low down to 992 just SW of Chicago and then 989 in central MI at hr 108 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ggem gets the low down to 992 just SW of Chicago and then 989 in central MI at hr 108 That's more like it, more of a cutter feel with that one. Please tell me there's more cold sector precip than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hard to tell it has a max of 16 mm which is 0.6 qpf at hr 96 right around the 850 line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Most of it.probably falls before that line passes similar to the.12z ggem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hard to tell it has a max of 16 mm which is 0.6 qpf at hr 96 right around the 850 line Is that 12 hour precip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 At he 108 it has a max of 18 I. Eastern wi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Is that 12 hour precip?Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GGEM http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2016011200/mw/cmc_snow_acc_mw_23.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Solid for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Solid for here Where is here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Eastern wi just south of GB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro pretty much completely dry with this storm now. Nothing until it gets into the UP of Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro pretty much completely dry with this storm now. Nothing until it gets into the UP of Michigan. Where is the low track at? I see the low that comes out of ND at 72 hours, but then there's a lot missing until 96 hours.EURO has had a tendency to be too dry with winter systems, the last two winters. So take that into account. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 DMX actually somewhat impressed--- THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES IN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MAY NOT BE UNTIL SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS...GEM AND NAM CENTER ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND THE HEART OF THE 1.5 PVU ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI. THE ECMWF IS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWARD. THUS HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM ECMWF AND TOWARDS GFS/NAM/GEM BLEND. USING THIS BLEND FOR LOCATION...AM PICKING UP ON BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...FROM AROUND LAMONI THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO AND UP TOWARDS WATERLOO. METEOROLOGICALLY...THIS IS AN EXPECTED LOCATION FOR THIS FEATURE. GFS IS PICKING UP ON A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT IN THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ESPECIALLY AT KOTM. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS. GIVEN FORECAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...THERE MAY BE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA FRIDAY Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z NAM really deepens this storm towards the end of the run and at 500mb it tries going neg tilt. Get's it down to a 989mb SLP in S IL...I like this look but still plenty of time to see how this plays out. If that energy down in the SE can somehow get pulled into this system it would make all the difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z NAM really deepens this storm towards the end of the run and at 500mb it tries going neg tilt. Get's it down to a 989mb SLP in S IL...I like this look but still plenty of time to see how this plays out. If that energy down in the SE can somehow get pulled into this system it would make all the difference. Nam is getting its act together with an increase in qpf. Possible that it is drawing some of that moisture from the SE but nonetheless this is a positive trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 This looks pretty much like a non-event here, think we should have waited to start this thread. But things could change. Who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think with this system anyone is game between I-35 and Indianapolis. GGEM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 ^well that's exciting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z Nam run showing decent cold sector moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z NAM is pretty much the same track. It looks to be a bit colder in the beginning compared to last Sat. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS a carbon copy of itself again. Looks exactly like a last Saturday event again. A mess. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something tells me the GFS will eventually change it's track. A lot of possibilities in the ensembles. Some lead to a prolonged snow event for some areas. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Very curious to see how this storm will pan out. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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