GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

great run for here

gabel23 · January 26, 2016

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.8    1004      91      95    0.16     544     541

mix bag? (850 looks ok,k but the THK is above the 540

How about KOLU?? Thanks.

Geos · January 26, 2016

Looks like the low cut a little bit farther southeast than the 0z run, but that is only a guesstimate.

Nebraska to eastern WI this corridor for heaviest snow?

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

How about KOLU?? Thanks.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    SUN 06Z 31-JAN   2.9     6.2    1004      86      53    0.00     555     552    SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.0     3.4    1006      77      60    0.00     553     548    SUN 18Z 31-JAN   2.7    -0.7    1009      87      94    0.05     551     544    MON 00Z 01-FEB   2.4    -0.2    1008      88      96    0.04     550     543    MON 06Z 01-FEB   1.7    -1.5    1010      88      98    0.01     549     540    MON 12Z 01-FEB   0.0    -2.3    1011      93      98    0.01     548     539    MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.3    -2.4    1011      81      91    0.01     549     540    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.4    -2.2    1008      89      94    0.06     547     540    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -2.8    1004      91      95    0.16     544     541    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.5    -5.6     998      93      92    0.44     534     535    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -4.8    -9.7    1001      90      78    0.37     527     526    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -9.6   -14.9    1009      81      98    0.11     526     519    WED 06Z 03-FEB -11.7   -17.0    1017      75      95    0.07     529     516    WED 12Z 03-FEB -14.3   -12.6    1024      68      42    0.01     536     518    WED 18Z 03-FEB -13.9   -12.6    1030      67       9    0.00     541     518

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    SUN 06Z 31-JAN   1.6     5.8    1005      78      74    0.00     554     549    SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.0     1.5    1007      78      93    0.02     552     546    SUN 18Z 31-JAN   3.3    -1.0    1009      79      98    0.03     550     542    MON 00Z 01-FEB   1.4    -1.2    1008      80      87    0.00     549     542    MON 06Z 01-FEB   1.1    -1.9    1011      83      98    0.01     547     539    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -0.1    -2.5    1012      88     100    0.01     547     537    MON 18Z 01-FEB   0.5    -2.7    1012      74      98    0.01     547     538    TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.1    -3.9    1010      86     100    0.09     546     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.9    -5.3    1007      88      98    0.14     544     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.5    -7.4    1002      88     100    0.35     536     534    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.5   -12.2    1006      88      98    0.66     529     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB -10.9   -15.4    1012      80     100    0.25     528     518    WED 06Z 03-FEB -12.5   -16.4    1019      71      95    0.10     531     517    WED 12Z 03-FEB -14.7   -11.6    1024      67      21    0.00     536     518    WE

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

How about KOLU?? Thanks.

congrats

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981

12Z JAN26

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.2 3.8 1006 84 74 0.00 553 548

SUN 18Z 31-JAN 2.5 -0.6 1009 86 94 0.04 551 543

MON 00Z 01-FEB 2.1 -0.1 1008 88 96 0.03 550 543

MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.0 -1.1 1011 89 98 0.01 548 540

MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.2 -1.3 1011 90 97 0.00 548 539

MON 18Z 01-FEB 2.6 -1.9 1011 75 96 0.01 549 540

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.1 -2.3 1009 85 93 0.07 548 540

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.0 -1.8 1006 85 86 0.09 546 541

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -0.6 -4.0 998 90 94 0.31 539 540

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -3.6 -9.0 1000 89 70 0.46 528 528

WED 00Z 03-FEB -8.3 -14.3 1006 82 97 0.14 525 521

WED 06Z 03-FEB -10.5 -17.5 1013 79 99 0.10 527 517

WED 12Z 03-FEB -14.1 -13.6 1021 69 75 0.03 533 517

WED 18Z 03-FEB -14.7 -12.0 1028 68 7 0.00 540 518

gabel23 · January 26, 2016

congrats

OMG That's a lot of snow!!!!! Too bad it's still 7 days away.........

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM LAT= 41.53 LON= -93.65 ELE= 965

12Z JAN26

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

T

SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.7 5.9 1004 94 67 0.00 554 550

SUN 18Z 31-JAN 6.0 1.7 1007 65 83 0.00 552 546

MON 00Z 01-FEB 2.3 0.9 1008 91 92 0.05 550 543

MON 06Z 01-FEB 0.9 -0.2 1010 90 97 0.02 549 541

MON 12Z 01-FEB -0.4 -0.5 1011 91 97 0.00 549 539

MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.4 -0.6 1012 72 91 0.01 550 541

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.7 -1.4 1010 84 74 0.04 551 542

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.8 0.0 1007 86 76 0.01 549 543

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.6 -1.3 1000 92 98 0.25 544 544

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.9 -4.7 996 94 81 0.58 531 534

WED 00Z 03-FEB -4.8 -5.4 997 87 55 0.09 525 528

WED 06Z 03-FEB -7.3 -11.9 1003 82 85 0.05 524 522

WED 12Z 03-FEB -10.8 -15.2 1013 77 99 0.02 527 518

WED 18Z 03-FEB -13.3 -12.7 1023 70 41 0.01 536 518

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ORD LAT= 41.98 LON= -87.90 ELE= 673

12Z JAN26

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 01-FEB 6.6 3.4 1005 90 59 0.00 553 549

MON 06Z 01-FEB 2.8 2.4 1007 91 95 0.02 551 546

MON 12Z 01-FEB 1.3 1.2 1009 93 94 0.07 551 543

MON 18Z 01-FEB 3.2 0.5 1011 87 98 0.03 551 542

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.2 1.2 1013 95 70 0.00 554 543

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 2.1 2.4 1012 92 79 0.01 555 545

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.7 5.1 1007 94 98 0.24 553 547

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 1.7 8.4 999 96 96 0.49 551 552

WED 00Z 03-FEB 2.6 4.6 992 99 37 0.20 539 546

WED 06Z 03-FEB 1.4 0.7 991 99 83 0.01 529 536

WED 12Z 03-FEB 1.2 -4.9 994 95 98 0.12 523 528

WED 18Z 03-FEB -4.0 -12.0 1005 66 90 0.11 527 522

THU 00Z 04-FEB -5.8 -16.8 1017 57 89 0.01 532 519

THU 06Z 04-FEB -8.7 -13.1 1024 62 12 0.00 539 521

THU 12Z 04-FEB -12.9 -14.2 1030 68 12 0.00 538 516

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027

12Z JAN26

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

(C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 01-FEB 6.5 3.0 1005 84 73 0.01 554 550

MON 06Z 01-FEB 3.8 2.2 1008 83 81 0.00 553 547

MON 12Z 01-FEB 3.0 1.5 1009 84 66 0.01 553 546

MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.0 2.4 1008 80 50 0.01 553 547

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 5.6 4.3 1004 92 40 0.06 552 548

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 4.4 7.6 998 99 56 0.15 549 550

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 5.0 3.5 993 99 41 0.13 536 542

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 10.0 0.2 990 52 81 0.01 526 534

WED 00Z 03-FEB -2.5 -5.8 998 83 84 0.11 525 527

WED 06Z 03-FEB -7.1 -14.9 1010 65 100 0.03 526 518

WED 12Z 03-FEB -9.2 -17.6 1020 57 88 0.01 533 518

NEJeremy · January 26, 2016

OMG That's a lot of snow!!!!! Too bad it's still 7 days away.........

ratios should be pretty high too. look at how cold the temps are! .66 of qpf in 6 hours as all snow?! it will be dumping at that rate.

hlcater · January 26, 2016

Both ensamble means are further south of their respective operational model. Mean anything?

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

Both ensamble means are further south of their respective operational model. Mean anything?

maybe the track shift south

gabel23 · January 26, 2016

Anybody have the snow totals from the EURO?

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

Anybody have the snow totals from the EURO?

Tom would

gabel23 · January 26, 2016

Tom would

I'm thinking a pretty good swath of 12+ setting up shop somewhere through Central Nebraska and on east......

gosaints · January 26, 2016

You nebraska folks should be in a good spot so long as the energy comes out together

hlcater · January 26, 2016

Courtesy of bud.

Eastern IA gets the shaft.

Money · January 26, 2016

Looks good here is that the full snowfall map or is there more after that?

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

Courtesy of bud.

Eastern IA gets the shaft.

then do ratio's, WOW

Money · January 26, 2016

Anyone have precip totals for kosh?

hlcater · January 26, 2016

It's not mine, it's bud's.

gosaints · January 26, 2016

Anyone have precip totals for kosh?

only through 186

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

Anyone have precip totals for kosh?

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807                                            12Z JAN26                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK     TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.2    -3.7    1017      90      99    0.00     550     536    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -4.2    -4.2    1015      88     100    0.03     550     538    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -5.0    -4.7    1008      89      98    0.14     548     541    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -2.0    -3.5     997      89      69    0.29     539     542    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -4.0    -4.9     995      89      23    0.14     528     532    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -6.0   -11.8     998      84      63    0.02     524     525    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -8.6   -16.4    1007      71      96    0.03     525     520    THU 00Z 04-FEB  -9.3   -16.4    1017      72      74    0.02     531     517

gosaints · January 26, 2016

plenty of rainers even here on the EPS

jcwxguy · January 26, 2016

.

Tony · January 26, 2016

I'm really torn on which way to lean with this system. To tell you the truth I don't think any of these models have a clue on what's going to happen which is par for the course this winter. Most of the writeups I have read about this storm(some midwest some EC) seem to favor a more southern track all with different reasons. Couple of reasons I can see it going south is the EPO is heading towards negative and the other is the GEM seems to have better modeling on Northern stream features. I could be wrong on both counts and be totally off but this is what I see so far.

Geos · January 26, 2016

I can't put much stock into the EURO right now after its record with storms this winter. The last big system it mishandled was the Snow and sleet storm, where it was showing a track 400+ miles west of where it actually ended up. I would side with a GGEM/GFS blend right now.

Tony · January 26, 2016

I can't put much stock into the EURO right now after its record with storms this winter. The last big system it mishandled was the Snow and sleet storm, where it was showing a track 400+ miles west of where it actually ended up. I would side with a GGEM/GFS blend right now.

Also had the EC storms northern edge to about DC about 48 hours out

gosaints · January 26, 2016

I can't put much stock into the EURO right now after its record with storms this winter. The last big system it mishandled was the Snow and sleet storm, where it was showing a track 400+ miles west of where it actually ended up. I would side with a GGEM/GFS blend right now.

So the ggem spitting.out 2 lows in 30 hours?

Money · January 26, 2016

Ggem was way off on yesterday's system

BrianJK · January 26, 2016

Can't wait to see what the models show 72-96 hours from now.

gosaints · January 26, 2016

Ggem was way off on yesterday's system

Ggem.might get it right in the end. It wont be that 12z run solution.

Money · January 26, 2016

GGEM Ensembles

HR 168

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012612_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_168.png

Snowshoe · January 26, 2016

Nice to hear NWS Green Bay talk about the chances next week. Putting in for a vacation day next week to go play in the powder somewhere!

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ARCTIC HIGH RESIDES ACROSS CANADA WHILE SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BRINGS WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET OR RAIN FURTHER EAST. WOULD EXPECT THE MODELS TO
COME UP WITH VARYING FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A BIG STORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

Money · January 26, 2016

Couple significant storms on it:

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012612_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_180.png

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012612_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_180.png

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012612_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_180.png

Geos · January 26, 2016

So the ggem spitting.out 2 lows in 30 hours?

Not necessarily. Front runner wave, then a stronger wave later is plausible.

NEJeremy · January 26, 2016

wow Omaha NWS office already jinxing things with snow likely in the forecast grids a week out!

Here's the afternoon update:

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT
MAY AFFECT US NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CURRENTLY IS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE
ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS...ONTO THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY ON TO THE
PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEFS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT TRACK WITH THIS
STORM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD BE DEVELOPING
INTO A CLASSIC COLORADO LOW THAT THEN EJECTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO HAS A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT IS AT LEAST 12
HOURS BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY TWO MENTIONED MODELS. THE KEY POINTS
HERE...THERE DEFINITELY APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT
WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CLASSIC
SIGNS OF A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD DEVELOPING. GIVEN THAT IT`S STILL 7
DAYS AWAY (AN ETERNITY IN THE METEOROLOGICAL WORD)...A LOT OF
THINGS CAN HAPPEN TO ADJUST THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
TO PROVIDE ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. BEST TO LET THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON TRENDS FOR A FEW MORE RUNS TO SEE
HOW THINGS CHANGE. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS FOR MOSTLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST IT COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER.

Geos · January 26, 2016

Also had the EC storms northern edge to about DC about 48 hours out

Yeah there's no rhyme nor reason to the EURO's way off solutions. They've gone both ways this winter, which makes it harder to try to understand what it is doing. It would be one thing if it had a NW bias vs. a SE one.

Ggem was way off on yesterday's system

Too amped and too far NW. NAM did well in terms of temps and snow placement, GFS did well on track, overdid the WAA though.

Geos · January 26, 2016

That's a significant looking low...

GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

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