GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

keeps missing 850 temp at a certain time 

 

 

Lol, what's up with the missing data.

 

It's very close for you NWLinn. Weird that the Surface temp goes up as the 850 mb levels start to plummet.

[hlcater]

I kn

Lol, what's up with the missing data.

 

It's very close for you NWLinn. Weird that the Surface temp goes up as the 850 mb levels start to plummet.

I know, there were several strange aspects to this run, and just because it rains here doesn't justify a strange run even though that may be the image you have gathered over the past day or so.

[jcwxguy]

gonna try to find a snowfall map

[Money]

.

That doesn't really match up with what the soundings had for here

[Hawkeye]

http://i.imgur.com/xkjMNgY.png

[Money]

So the low goes from SW of STL to southern Iowa and then up towards GB?

[jcwxguy]

That doesn't really match up with what the soundings had for here

wrong map, getting a new one

[jcwxguy]

wrong map, getting a new one

[Snowlover76]

Great. This one is slipping away too.

 

 

Oh well

[gabel23]

 

wrong map, getting a new one

 

I don't like that map, way sharper of a cut off on snow totals. I'm getting on the edge of the deformation band, hoping the GFS wins out again....

[winterfreak]

EURO seems ver odd after it gets to STL. Implications aren't huge around here at that point but for those around Chitown it definitely is.

[gabel23]

Have to expect this though considering we are a long ways out yet. I just hope it swings back for us as the event nears. 

[Money]

Have to expect this though considering we are a long ways out yet. I just hope it swings back for us as the event nears.

Getting within 120-144 hours even less than that when the system comes ashore

[Geos]

 

Now I know what you mean by it backs up. 

Yeah it goes NNW then NE.

[jcwxguy]

00z euro para 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS and Canadian are farther north.  Long ways out expect back and forth swings.

[jcwxguy]

zoomed in 12z 

[Geos]

Henry M. of accuweather's general thoughts so far. Yesterday vs. today.

 

 

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f144.gif

[Money]

156

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f156.gif

[Money]

72 hr qpf

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f180.gif

[Tom]

I find it intriguing the Euro digs this storm quite a bit farther south into TX. The problem for Chitown is it cuts NE way to fast due to the placement of HP in southern Canada on Day 6-7. If it corrects west in time due to the -EPO then we're in business. Also, by Feb 3rd the AO/NAO are supposed to be near neutral.

 

On the road again today, no maps at my disposal.

[bud2380]

The Euro really fooled me.  At 144 with the low all the way in southern MO it looked like it would be a great run for Eastern Iowa, but then it heads due north, then straight west, then back northeast.  Very very odd route.  Who knows though, I've seen it happen before. 

[Money]

JMA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012712/jma_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012712/jma_z500_mslp_us_8.png

[Money]

JMA Precip:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012712/jma_apcpn_us_8.png

[Money]

12z NAVGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_27.png

[hlcater]

Money, how deep tdid the NAVGEM Dig the low?

[Money]

Money, how deep tdid the NAVGEM Dig the low?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016012712/navgem_mslp_uv850_us_25.png

[Geos]

Ensemble and control tracks.

 

 

[james1976]

Im pretty much in the bullseye every run of every model...and that scares me right now. Haha. Nice to see though.

[Money]

Im pretty much in the bullseye every run of every model...and that scares me right now. Haha. Nice to see though.

 

I like your area, gosaints area up towards GB/Wausau

 

Think im too far south with this one for the main band. This just screams NW trend towards the end. 

[Tom]

Geo's, seems like the EPS looking more like a TX Panhandler than a CO Low.

[gosaints]

Geo's, seems like the EPS looking more like a TX Panhandler than a CO Low.

So is the EURO.  All of the models dig the storm to the panhandle really

[Snowlover76]

Not looking good for Nebraska

[gosaints]

I like your area, gosaints area up towards GB/Wausau

 

Think im too far south with this one for the main band. This just screams NW trend towards the end. 

Seems like a GEOS/TOM vs Money thinking battle setting up

[Money]

Geo's, seems like the EPS looking more like a TX Panhandler than a CO Low.

All the models pretty much dig it down into Texas/Oklahoma now

[Money]

Seems like a GEOS/TOM vs Money thinking battle setting up

What way you thinking?

[gosaints]

This is the first storm where people are going to see a front end thump.

[gosaints]

What way you thinking?

I can still see it weakening flattening and going a good bit SE.  If its a solid wound up storm its going to cut, but still think areas east of the low could do solid on a front end thump though snow cover could impede that a bit in areas

[Money]

I can still see it weakening flattening and going a good bit SE. If its a solid wound up storm its going to cut

Going the easy way out smh