Phil Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever. Only now, we don't have to deal with the giant PV over Greenland. So this is a better setup than December, assuming it verifies. http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpg 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 We've had lots of snow in February's past. The only difference is it hasn't happend in years. I was already on board yesterday or the day before that something was going to happen for the first week of Feb. I don't necessarily mean it was going to Snow, but I meant we'd get cold or modified or full Arctic air. Some places in the NW interior had 2 feet or better in 2011. And that was way later than this will be. Amazing how shocked the average person around here is when a cold snap makes them realize that February is a winter month. In the past we got hit pretty regularly in that month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever: [img[http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpg[/img] What a thing of beauty. Blocked up to the pole. This is our chance. I hope we can hit the pay station this time. If that verifies it appears Cal will finally get some much needed southern branch rainfall. It is interesting to note the placement of the massive positive anomalies is nearly identical to what the ECMWF ensemble has been showing. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow @ the 12z GFS ensemble mean. I've never seen a signal this strong @ hr 300+ before..ever. Only now, we don't have to deal with the giant PV over Greenland. So this is a better setup than December, assuming it verifies. http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/3379/76dh.jpgVery promising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I disagree. The chances of a 4"+ snowfall go up dramatically in the PNW lowlands with arctic air around. Shortwaves producing precipitation won't be picked up well (if at all) out at this range..we need to focus on getting the cold air in. This isn't Minnesota, where arctic air is nearly irrelevant to snowfall. Tell that to December 2013. Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage. I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards. To clarify, I would be surprised if we didn't all see snow, but I am very doubtful of a 4"+ event between now and the first week of February. After that, who knows. I hope so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 What a thing of beauty. Blocked up to the pole. This is our chance. I hope we can hit the pay station this time. If that verifies it appears Cal will finally get some much needed southern branch rainfall. It is interesting to note the placement of the massive positive anomalies is nearly identical to what the ECMWF ensemble has been showing.As I recall, the Euro and GFS were well aligned back in December--in fact, you could have used the ensemble means as overlays for one another at one point--they were that close. And they appear to be aligning well again. I'm willing to bet on the cold at this point--we just need some moisture now to go with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tell that to December 2013. Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage. I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards. To clarify, I would be surprised if we didn't all see snow, but I am very doubtful of a 4"+ event between now and the first week of February. After that, who knows. I hope so! Didn't you have like 7 inches of snow in December? Some people are hard to satisfy I guess. Incidentally...many ensemble members show snow at some point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 As I recall, the Euro and GFS were well aligned back in December--in fact, you could have used the ensemble means as overlays for one another at one point--they were that close. And they appear to be aligning well again. I'm willing to bet on the cold at this point--we just need some moisture now to go with it. Agreed. From an historic perspective early Feb cold waves are traditionally snowy. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I hope it snows so much the first week of February that I get sick of it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Didn't you have like 7 inches of snow in December? Some people are hard to satisfy I guess. Incidentally...many ensemble members show snow at some point. I did but it was very localized. Areas 20 minutes away from me saw a quarter of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I hope it snows so much the first week of February that I get sick of it. 1916 or 1893 would work fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 1916 or 1893 would work fine. Yes, either one would make me sick of the snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Euro looks great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z EURO! Day 7http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Day 10http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 It looks like a snow maker dropping down the coast that is bringing in the arctic air . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Plot twist: high pressure splits; jet splits, aims for West coast! No wonder why models showed precipitation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Excellent ECMWF. 850mb temps are -10 over Seattle at day 10. The basic setup is already in place by day 5. Looks like it gets chilly before the month is over. Now we wait to see how the details start to unfold. This has huge potential. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Plot twist: high pressure splits; jet splits, aims for West coast! No wonder why models showed precipitation! The GFS ensemble looks very promising for rain in Cal in the 10 to 15 day period. EDIT...You have to like the SE ridge showing up on the ECMWF at the end of the run. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Models look way too dry, and the pattern being shown is not conducive of substantial QPFs for a widespread PNW 4"+ event at this stage.Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation. I much prefer lows dropping down the BC coast than banking on overrunning. This event looks bone dry, again, for my locale. Of course, CZ is always in the cards.Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude.. On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The average low at my place for the past 11 days is 30.5. Still a shot to be a respectably cold Dec-Feb average this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Lets try and be civil people. Share and discuss your opinion, but keep it reasonable. I agree with the analysis of above average chances of arctic air. And having studied what brings the big snows to the PNW the pattern shown is exactly what you want. The jet digs SW offshore allowing the cold air to spill in and some overwater trajectory to build up surface lows offshore. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation. Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude.. On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth.This. You are winning me over lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 This. You are winning me over lately.Such strange bedfellows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!! That we are. Maybe this means we will get hit in January sometime soon. There is some history of good Febs one winter leading to good Jans the next. That is IF we can avoid a Nino. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Delete this plz They need to enable the ability for us to delete our own posts. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Dramatic improvement on the Canadian ensemble also. I think this is going to happen! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 CFS for the Feb 1st-6th timeframe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 CFS for the Feb 1st-6th timeframe. cfs.jpg One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation. Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude.. On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth. I haven't made any commentary on 10+ days out. My entire discussion, as stated, as been within the 10 day timeframe. If you're telling me that you see 4"+ in that time frame, please elaborate. I think it's unlikely. After that, again, as I said, who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I haven't made any commentary on 10+ days out. My entire discussion, as stated, as been within the 10 day timeframe. If you're telling me that you see 4"+ in that time frame, please elaborate. I think it's unlikely. After that, again, as I said, who knows. There seems to be some indication that snow will be more likely once the cold air is in place and the pattern retrogrades a bit more. You can never rule out a surprise with the Arctic front though. Right now Arctic frontal passage seems to be in the 7 to 9 day period. Going to take some time to nail that down. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAEFS probability for cooler than normal best so far...Starting to become more confident: Next run tonight I'll expect to see widespread 70-80% For comparison the probabilities for 8-12 days before our December cold snap: 1 Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater. We can actually share the cold pretty easily with TX/OK. Their biggest cold spells are often very significant here as well. AL/GA/FL/SC not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 We can actually share the cold pretty easily with TX/OK. Their biggest cold spells are often very significant here as well. AL/GA/FL/SC not so much. No question that was true in 1899. This could be the coldest winter for the United States as whole in a good many years if everything goes as planned. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAEFS probability for cooler than normal best so far...Starting to become more confident: Next run tonight I'll expect to see widespread 70-80% For comparison the probabilities for 8-12 days before our December cold snap: I would certainly expect the chances go way up over the next day or two. The Canadian ensemble looked pretty darn good today. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looking good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The ECMWF ensemble continues to improve. One of the more striking things is how the timing is moving up. By hour 156 things look pretty cold. Certainly looks like possible snow with the amount of water trajectory. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice work, you guys. I look forward to reading more of everybody's insights. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice work, you guys. I look forward to reading more of everybody's insights. Welcome back! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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