January 2014 in the PNW

[stuffradio]

Well, maybe for your location. Vancouver for example has gone below freezing once in the last 16 days.

 

It has been a pretty "normal" or "average" January for metro Vancouver, Blaine, Bellingham, etc. Perhaps a couple degrees above normal overall, if that. It has been dry for quite a while now but there was that very rainy period in the second week of January which makes up for the dryness now.

I've been getting quite a few 32 or below 32 degree days this month. Not every day, but almost every day. It hasn't been uncommon this month.

[Deweydog]

The new Andrew is much improved.   No silly cheering and posturing.    Just honest analysis.   

 

I actually thought he's sounded kind of weird lately.  

[Deweydog]

Soul crushing...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0

[Guest Monty67]

Soul crushing...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0

That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter.

 

Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight.

[Guest Monty67]

I actually thought he's sounded kind of weird lately.

The lack of cold onshore flow the last 2 winters has broken his spirit.

[Deweydog]

That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter.

 

Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight.

 

Pretty much the same.  Pattern gets confused and probably low impact in the long range.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That cant be correct. we are right in the middle or winter.

 

Waiting for confirmation on how good the Euro is looking tonight.

 

That is 100% correct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The lack of cold onshore flow the last 2 winters has broken his spirit.

 

Pretty much. Nothing really to do, but wait for spring.

[Guest Monty67]

Pretty much the same.  Pattern gets confused and probably low impact in the long range.

It really has looked kind of convoluted in the day 7-10 range the last few days. It doesn't really have that sharpness, that I would expect to see if something of impact was about to unfold.

[Guest Monty67]

That is 100% correct.

I know it is. Downsloping.

[BLI snowman]

Soul crushing...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=BRKO&num=72&raw=0

 

Town itself is often a lot more moderate, though. The airport there is in the hills and gets some really kooky localized downslope winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late word that there is a 15 acre wildfire burning about 5 miles north of my house...Kind of unsettling and not the kind of thing you expect to hear about in late January in the Cascade Foothills.

[Guest Monty67]

That is f'ed up.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS

Oooo, 500mb pattern is tantalizingly close to delivering 1-3 modified(or legit) arctic blasts!

[AnthonyC]

6z GFS

Oooo, 500mb pattern is tantalizingly close to delivering 1-3 modified(or legit) arctic blasts!

 

What are you talking about?  I don't see anything remotely close to delivering arctic air to the PNW on the run...

[AnthonyC]

I still don't see anything remotely close to showing potential lowland snow/arctic cold for the PNW in any of the models.

 

The EURO (after day 5) looks ridiculous.  It shows this ugly retrogression with several cutoff lows in the eastern Pacific.  Leaves us in this "no mans" land.

 

The GFS continues to shift back and forth after day 5 as well.  But (outside of arctic air post hour 300) not any of these runs are showing 500mb thicknesses lower than 534 within the believable 7 day range.

 

And the GFS ensemble members pretty much suck...no continuity, no agreement. 

[Phil]

Why do you bother contributing to this when you apparently live at the arctic multiple times a winter. It is like a slap in the face.

 

It would be so easy for me to be breezy about winter weather with other regions if I lived where you do.

I'm sorry. I was just trying to lighten the mood a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I still don't see anything remotely close to showing potential lowland snow/arctic cold for the PNW in any of the models.

 

The EURO (after day 5) looks ridiculous.  It shows this ugly retrogression with several cutoff lows in the eastern Pacific.  Leaves us in this "no mans" land.

 

The GFS continues to shift back and forth after day 5 as well.  But (outside of arctic air post hour 300) not any of these runs are showing 500mb thicknesses lower than 534 within the believable 7 day range.

 

And the GFS ensemble members pretty much suck...no continuity, no agreement. 

 

But if you wish hard enough...

[Jesse]

But if you wish hard enough...

I think taking a few weeks off might do you some good.

[IbrChris]

My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.

 

Your realistic and logical analysis is so depressing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think taking a few weeks off might do you some good.

 

Then I can come back and tell everyone I was right...

[TT-SEA]

Then I can come back and tell everyone I was right...

 

 

This forum should be a fantasy world when the weather does not cooperate... arctic air and tons of snow are always just around the corner.    And in the summer the following winter will always be epic.    Reality has no place in a discussion about science.    Those who want to be realistic should just leave.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This forum should be a fantasy world when the weather does not cooperate... arctic air and tons of snow are always just around the corner.    And in the summer the following winter will always be epic.    Reality has no place in a discussion about science.    Those who want to be realistic should just leave.    

 

I really want it to snow, and it may at some point in February, but I'm not going to cheer lead and wishcast.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.

I am sure many on this board will put you on ignore or vote to have you banned.  --- Honestly, I feel this is a very fair assessment and appreciate your input. I do not see this as negative but I am sure some here will. 

[GobBluth]

We may not get arctic air in the mid or long range, but the near certainty of a good soaking next Tuesday and Wednesday for Oregon and northern California is pretty exciting.. 12z gfs confirms.

 

The Euro and GFS have a similar ridge positioned in the pacific, but it's so dirty that it will be tough to get a true arctic blast..

 

Canadian on the other hand, is just getting ready to reset to the same weather pattern that we're used to.

[IbrChris]

I am sure many on this board will put you on ignore or vote to have you banned.  --- Honestly, I feel this is a very fair assessment and appreciate your input. I do not see this as negative but I am sure some here will. 

 

I don't have to spend time here, I forecast for a living. Won't bother me any.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Arctic air only two weeks away.

[Guest Monty67]

Arctic air only two weeks away.

The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February.

[TT-SEA]

Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze.

 

It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like.    Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house.

 

Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like.      

 

Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February.

 

That will be nice for them.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze.

 

It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like.    Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house.

 

Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like.      

 

Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like.  

Now you know the measure of "spring like" is based on if people like or dislike you post not the facts... You should also know that spring like is 67.2 degrees!!!!  Geesh!!  --- 

[Jesse]

I really want it to snow, and it may at some point in February, but I'm not going to cheer lead and wishcast.

Who is cheer leading and wish casting?

 

Is being anything but incredibly depressing and glum with every post considered cheer leading and wish casting now?

 

Take a break buddy. It will be good for you. This is the worst I have ever seen you.

[Jesse]

My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.

Good analysis. I agree, any chance for true arctic air is still a few weeks away. It will be nice to start getting some chilly systems and mountain snow later next week, though!

[HighlandExperience]

The 12z shows a couple of feet of snow for the Bellingham in the first week of February.

 

Any Feb. event is likely to bring a strong N to S gradient.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I don't have to spend time here, I forecast for a living. Won't bother me any.

It would bother me.  I like all of the pros who come onboard.  Can always learn something from the experts.  How often do boards have the privilege of having communicating directly with experts?

 

Ever try to talk directly to Pete Carroll?  Here, we can have the equivalent of that.

[Guest Monty67]

12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really.

[Jesse]

12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really.

No, you're just wishcasting and cheerleading.

[Canadian guy]

12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really.

 

Things are still trending in the right direction.

[Jesse]

Any Feb. event is likely to bring a strong N to S gradient.

Nah, that really doesn't start becoming a big thing until March.