January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

Please delete this, thanks.

[Phil]

 

It's not that simple..the eastern troughing exists for a reason. Look the forcing agents driving the current hemispheric circulation. So you'll be looking at various stratospheric, tropical, and solar induced perturbations.

 

The western ridging does not hinge on the existence of an eastern trough. If anything, it's the other way around, given the pacific is upstream.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z isn't bad.

[GobBluth]

The Canadian is going the wrong direction.

[Jesse]

Me. 50% chance we have some weak troughing for about a week followed by 3 more weeks of ridging...

You are almost insufferable lately. Must be a foothills thing.

[Jesse]

Unbridled pessimism and unbridled optimism are both intellectually dishonest. But unbridled pessimism is a heck of a lot more grating.

 

Too bad more people can't make middle ground posts here. I notice that's how most pro-mets post...

[Jesse]

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

Not me. It's going through its initial fits and starts as models get a hold on things.

 

I guess if you were "impressed" by anything the models were spitting out beyond 240 hours at some point that's your deal.

[GobBluth]

Unbridled pessimism and unbridled optimism are both intellectually dishonest. But unbridled pessimism is a heck of a lot more grating.

 

Too bad more people can't make middle ground posts here. I notice that's how most pro-mets post...

The models are trending towards a pattern similar to January, but at least the sun will come up tomorrow. Will that work? 

[Jesse]

The models are trending towards a pattern similar to January, but at least the sun will come up tomorrow. Will that work?

No, because the first part of the sentence is an out and out falsehood.

[Guest Monty67]

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

I am feeling less impressed for the pattern change that was advertised for the end of January time frame. It is kind of looking like we might end up weakening the ridge and ending up with some weakening splitty type systems for the first while. I think a more consolidated pattern change will come, but probably not till the second week of February.

[Jesse]

12z op/ensembles both seem pretty solid on a quick breakdown of the ridge and a chilly, wet pattern.

 

Not sure where all this talk of the ridge sticking around and split flow is coming from.

[GobBluth]

Some of the ensembles look good but the mean is splitty.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_12z/f192.gif

[BLI snowman]

Euro still sucks.

[Alex_Snakes]

Euro still sucks.

 

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/img/dr_lizardo/2014/01/15/DeskFlip.gif

[Deweydog]

Looks to me like at this point the obvious thing to take away from all this is that something is very likely to happen at some point.  

[Gradient Keeper]

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

Me, and it's starting to look like "what pattern change?"

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks to me like at this point the obvious thing to take away from all this is that something is very likely to happen at some point.  

I think you're really reaching here.

[Deweydog]

I think you're really reaching here.

 

I'll end up right. 

[Deweydog]

Late-early to early-mid February.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Late-early to early-mid February.  

You're on.

[GobBluth]

Late-early to early-mid February.  

Chances are high for measurable precipitation by February 28th.

[Jesse]

Late-early to early-mid February.

Assuming you're being serious, I'm thinking our best shot will be in that time frame as well.

[Deweydog]

Assuming you're being serious, I'm thinking our best shot will be in that time frame as well.

 

I believe it comes down to about 66 hours.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks pretty good in the long range...To bad the timing really hasn't been moving up at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z looks pretty good in the long range...To bad the timing really hasn't been moving up at all.

Yep. Exactly nice modified arctic front. Yeah, timing hasn't changed and I don't believe the GFS as far as I can throw it. I don't know how much the GFS weighs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep. Exactly nice modified arctic front. Yeah, timing hasn't changed and I don't believe the GFS as far as I can throw it. I don't know how much the GFS weighs.

The problem is that a week ago it was showing this "pattern change" out around 240 hours. Still is...I'd like to see the timing move up.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I love all the good stuff that is consistently showing up after the resolution change.

 

Too bad it isn't true.

[westcoastexpat]

A pattern change is imminent. No way the endless fog and spring-ness will continue for the whole month of February.

 

I do worry that it will result in a more dreary pattern, but that will likely be mountain snow and that sure will be welcome. We've been spoiled for most of this winter in terms of rain.

[50shadesofvan]

I don't trust many deterministic runs outside 7 days right now, but the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), has moved up timing significantly for precipitation.

NAEFS basics:

• Array of physically plausible forecasts (NCEP and CMC) used
• Lower resolution than GFS/GEM (drops to about 100 km vs. GFS 45km)
• Model uncertainty is only included in the CMC EPS, via model physics
• Low resolutions 'controls' are run along with the many other runs that were perturbed. Control run uses same initialization as deterministic GFS/GEM, just lower resolution

EDIT: How can I add a photo using these forums? I wanted to attach a photo of an EPSgram, showing the predicted PDX precip. If someone could help, that would be excellent. When I select image, the address provided wasn't accepted. 

 

Thanks guys. Figured it out. I use these quite often on my blog, as I find them the most accurate up to 10 days out. 

 

[Bryant]

I don't trust many deterministic runs outside 7 days right now, but the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), has moved up timing significantly for precipitation.

NAEFS basics:

• Array of physically plausible forecasts (NCEP and CMC) used
• Lower resolution than GFS/GEM (drops to about 100 km vs. GFS 45km)
• Model uncertainty is only included in the CMC EPS, via model physics
• Low resolutions 'controls' are run along with the many other runs that were perturbed. Control run uses same initialization as deterministic GFS/GEM, just lower resolution

EDIT: How can I add a photo using these forums. I wanted to attach a photo of an EPSgram, showing the predicted PDX precip. If someone could help, that would be excellent. When I select image, the address provided wasn't accepted. 

 

Use a site to upload the image to, such as http://tinypic.com/

[Guest Winterdog]

If the header of the reply text box is operational it should work by just copy and paste.  If the header is grayed (not operational) just click on the little icon in the upper left of the header to activate the header then your copy and paste should work.  You may get a notice asking if you want to allow a webpage to access your computer, if so just click yes.  At least that works for me.

 

Edit:  If I could delete this I would after seeing the previous post.  His method is probably better than mine.

[Canadian guy]

Looking better

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Jesse]

The 18z ensembles look good.

[Skagit Weather]

Surprised by a little rain last night into this morning. Not that I should have been if I had been studying the models, but no point looking at precipitation forecasts if almost none is forecast. .08" total so a real soaker.

[MossMan]

Surprised by a little rain last night into this morning. Not that I should have been if I had been studying the models, but no point looking at precipitation forecasts if almost none is forecast. .08" total so a real soaker.

Yep, we had a little rain last night around my location as well. I was was over in Moses Lake yesterday and it was quite drizzly, wasn't expecting that either. The Ensembles are looking quite good, and the PNA forecast is still calling for a moderate tank by the first of the month. Very encouraging stuff!!

[Bryant]

While it still appears that we'll see a switch to cooler/stormier conditions around the beginning of Feb, I'm not sure what kind of intensity to expect. The PNA ridge gets broken down thanks to the lack of convection over the tropical pacific. No convection results in no support for an extended north pacific jet stream, which has been the cause of the repetitive pattern over the US. Signs are pointing to the 2nd half of February showing potential as we'll have the MJO back over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions.

 

http://i39.tinypic.com/21b4y13.jpg

[Guest Winterdog]

Yep, we had a little rain last night around my location as well. I was was over in Moses Lake yesterday and it was quite drizzly, wasn't expecting that either. The Ensembles are looking quite good, and the PNA forecast is still calling for a moderate tank by the first of the month. Very encouraging stuff!!

You have a great avatar!  I just noticed the Seahawk in the photo.  Very clever, whoever created that scene.

[Deweydog]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/

 

F***ing awesome!

[snow_wizard]

Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month.

[westiztehbest]

Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month.

 

Indeed.  Looks like Super Sunday may be the inflection point (at least by the GFS).

 

 

The Euro says it will change by hour 216.