BLI snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning. Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area. I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday. That is the best shot by far going into the cold air. Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area. Don't like saying it but its true... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt. MOS guidance has 42 at SEA that day even with -8C or -9C. NAM shows quite a bit of moisture on Sunday afternoon into Monday. 00z continues to advertise a 1-2" event for much of SW WA, spotty amounts elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow. january 31,2014 mm5.gif Nice to see convergence showing up on the precip models this far out. They verify more often than not. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 And the new MM5-NAM advertises a nice blob of showers right over Seattle on Sunday evening. Would be snow. january 31,2014 mm5.gif Disregard the MM5 NAM. It is so wrong with these set-ups its comical. WRF is a little better... ECMWF is so far ahead its the only thing that really matters. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just looked at the details on the 12Z ECMWF. Way too warm and there is sparse moisture on Sunday afternoon and evening. Its too warm for even my location. Monday morning is the main show. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It may not be the best model but the MM5-NAM has one hell of a CZ over Seattle Sunday night. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ww_pcp24.72.0000.gif Borderline temps though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think the NAM does a better job than the GFS with precip in the short term when we are talking snow potential. It was closer to the Euro and Canadian with the precip amounts for the December event than it was compared to the GFS. Of course it did not benefit Western Washington overall but still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It may not be the best model but the MM5-NAM has one hell of a CZ over Seattle Sunday night. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ww_pcp24.72.0000.gif Borderline temps though. That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS is running, crossing my fingers and hoping for the best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS could be the real DUD run of the last few days, hopefully it isn't and ends up epic. Euro holds it guns though, its on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning. 24 hours ending Monday at 4 p.m. And it matches up somewhat close to the ECMWF for that timeframe. Monday morning could be interesting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 That looks like late Monday night into Tuesday....72 hours? Check that, that is Tuesday morning.72 hours is 00z Tuesday which is 4 PM Monday. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS could be the real DUD run of the last few days, hopefully it isn't and ends up epic. Euro holds it guns though, its on.Edit: I really don't wanna see a DUD but history has proven that a run at some point will show a very shitty solution and switch back, so I am just waiting for it to rear its ugly face and get it over with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Here is the thing that is pissing me off for this weekend. This is what Friday evening looked like 48 hours ago: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013000/images_d2/slp.48.0000.gif And here is what it actually looked like this evening: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.00.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 And then tomorrow afternoon... originally looked cold enough for snow. 48 hours ago it looked like this: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014013000/images_d2/slp.60.0000.gif Now it looks like this... and reality will be even warmer based how the WRF is handling it: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z is colder than the 18z through hour 93. Looks more like the 12z so far. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just looks a little slower. Definitely some serious cold air getting wrapped into and pulled south by the passing low. Patience. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just looks a little slower. Definitely some serious cold air getting wrapped into and pulled south by the passing low. Patience. I know... I was just telling you that. Just frustrating. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know... I was just telling you that. Just frustrating. Better to be slow than not coming at all. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sunday does look more sunny with some slight offshore flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sunday does look more sunny with some slight offshore flow. Hmm...I won't say anything, lol. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run! I don't think thats possible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00Z looks colder than even the 12Z run! I'm just looking at the thickness, but that is definitely not as low as the 12z run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hmm...I won't say anything, lol. Well... the WRF changed a little. Actually... having that low come even farther north is helping with the cloud situation this weekend. Its pushing that moisture band to the north and breaking it up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well... the WRF changed a little. Actually... having that low come even farther north is helping with the cloud situation this weekend. Its pushing that moisture band to the north and breaking it up. Ha ha....reverse deformation. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 4:47 PM UpdateThe system for Monday can already be see up in Yukon. You can see on IR Loop it's progressing southward slowly. Where exactly this tracks will play a role in how much precip we see, or if it's largely dry. If it slides a bit offshore it could pick up a bit of moisture. If it tracks further inland things should be fairly dry.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12 Also, I personally am not ruling out the remote chance for a surprise dusting to snow to quick 1" with this, but everything has to come together just right. This system as it heads south is also what will dig out the arctic trough over western Washington and Oregon bringing very cold air into the area Tuesday - Saturday(possibly beyond?). So all of the pieces are in place and the pattern progression can be seen in real-time on IR Loop instead of merely relying on the models to see the what and when. I really like that you can track things now with the eye and not rely solely on stupid computers. http://i60.tinypic.com/n5sgop.pngNice keep us updated!!!!! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I will say that thing is destined for northern California as prognosticated, but nice try . Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice keep us updated!!!!! That is sliding to the east. Our low is in Alaska right now. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 What a weak looking Pacific, even by '13-14' standards. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow event one week from today on the 00Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Day 7 on 00z GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_168_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Would love to see that low about 150-200 miles south. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I love that low right where it is. Keep it there. A part of it in the ocean can break off and move south though. The rest stay where it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I love that low right where it is. Keep it there. A part of it in the ocean can break off and move south though. The rest stay where it is. I'm more excited about where that big sucker is headed for Sat/Sun. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow looks like Vancouver BC and Seattle will be the winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thats some insane cold in NW Canada Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Agreed with stuffradio, keep that low where it is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm more excited about where that big sucker is headed for Sat/Sun.I'm with u on that ! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow looks like Vancouver BC and Seattle will be the winners.You're talking about the potential storm next weekend? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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