Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Surprised you think it heads to your backyard... You want it all right!? lol I'm just saying the EURO is south it looks like because it might be seeing the teleconnections. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 You want it all right!? lol I'm just saying the EURO is south it looks like because it might be seeing the teleconnections.I could take it or leave it this time of year. If the years trend hold it will trend lame anyhow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Gfs pretty much stayed the same but it was a degree or two warmer and really expanded on the fzr threat still 24-30 inches of snow up by Wausau. Ggem came in a bit farther south than gfs and looks like a lot of qpf 0z nam is also a bit south of gfs at hr 84 and about 2-3 degrees colder and has snow breaking out in southern wi at hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Here's GGEM at HR 102 with another 18 hours of snow in the snow areas: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032000/gem_asnow_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Even gets snow down to Geos/Milwaukee area during the start of the storm: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_093.png http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_098.png Snows from HR 93 to 120+ http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_120.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 lol GGEM. Obviously ratios won't be 10:1 but Pivotal Maps are out to 54 so should be interesting to see the amounts it shows and how much FZR falls down towards Milwaukee. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032000/gem_asnow_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM thru 138 buries central - southern WI. Ice on the southern edge for Milwaukee and Madison. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 lol? http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f126/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 48 HR QPF: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f132/48hqpfmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Probably a bit over done. Front stalls out around I-80. South of where the GFS has it. Let's see what the EURO has. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah it's def. overdone and GGEM usually under does the temps for the most part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah it's def. overdone and GGEM usually under does the temps for the most part. Otherwise that would be historic! EURO ejects the low further south in southeast CO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO HR 72: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png HR 96: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png 850 MB line down near Geos area: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f096/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Freezing line lays out from Milwaukee to Madison at hour 84. Warm front is south of Kankakee. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Freezing line lays out from Milwaukee to Madison at hour 84 Warm front is south of Kankakee. Could you post the snow map once it's fully out? Sucks not to have it and it seems like we are the only ones who care about this storm since hardly anyone else is posting last couple days except Tom lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rain/snow, mix breaks out across northern IL and southern WI at hour 90. Southern WI is going to get blasted I think... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 HR 120 has a 993 L in C. Indiana. 850 mb temps below 0 all the way down near chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Freezing line then travels south through northern IL... Big time cold sector precip. For here it's really never rain, more like a mix to all snow before 108 hours. Snow gets all the way down to Peoria on this run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 How much cold sector precip we talking about? 1-2 QPF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 How much cold sector precip we talking about? 1-2 QPF? Just waiting for one more time period to load. Milwaukee up to two feet and still snowing... Everything from Sheboygan back to about Prairie du Chien on southeast is 2"+. That area extends into northern Cook County. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 So we have the GGEM, EURO, and GFS all showing 24+ in the heaviest snowband and we will be in NAM range tomorrow. Interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Holy Cow! 30" for MilwaukeeBiblical Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 On the northern edge but still 12+ here. This is insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Now do we start a thread and risk jinxing it or just keep it in here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 On the northern edge but still 12+ here. This is insane. Temps are in the 20-25° range in your area during the height of the storm and that's during the day. Let's wait until this time tomorrow. ~ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would have It's hard to think about in the last 7 days of March. A lot of people would flip out or not believe it until it started happening. Would be a white Easter for sure! EURO has lows 0-10° the night after the storm over the snow covered areas. O, and another snowstorm happens a week from now from NE to NE WI. 6-10". About 5" for Oshkosh. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah we have been spoiled so much this winter and especially the last few weeks that it doesn't shock me to a snow storm. I know a lot of schools are on spring break this upcoming week as well lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Wow, that's quite the shift south from the euro, and the uk as well. Most of the snow would still fall north of CR, where everything has fallen this winter, but I wouldn't mind seeing a few inches. This run would at least be a nice soaker as well. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro trolling geos? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Good agreement http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f96.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 HR 84 NAM http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/sfcconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/crefptypeconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 At 00z Thursday, the GFS has the 500 mb low over Sioux City, while the euro has it over nw Kansas... quite the speed and track spread. Oddly, DVN barely mentioned the big shift south on the euro, and our locals are still saying 50s Wednesday(euro 30s). Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Interested, but in the camp I'll believe it when I see it mentality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 LSE AFD: SO...AFTER ALL THAT NICE WEATHER THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTH...ITALMOST HURTS TO TALK ABOUT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WHAT COULD BE ASIZABLE WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELYTHAT IS INDEED THE CASE WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS RANGETHAT A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRALPLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR NEXTPIECE OF DIGGING WESTERN ENERGY LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH SAID GRADIENTTO POTENTIALLY SPIN UP QUITE THE SURFACE CYCLONE SOMEWHERE OVER THECENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THAT FEATURE RIDING UP TOWARD THE LOWER GREATLAKES BY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF LOWLEVEL RIDGING THROUGH ONTARIO GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT WE WILL SEEPLENTY OF COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALL WHILEGULF MOISTURE RIDES UP AND OVER A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR A MESSYWINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF COURSEREMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THAT SAID...EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ATTHIS RANGE IS IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROMNORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS - ONE THAT CERTAINLYFAVORS MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TOBE FAIR THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED ABIT SOUTH. DEFINITELY WORTH PLAYING UP THE IDEA OF A POSSIBLESTORM DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO STILLSORT OUT THE DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS. PEEKING AHEAD BEYOND THE POSSIBLE STORM...LOOKING FAIRLY QUIETINTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BUT SOME HINTS OFANOTHER SYSTEM MAKING AN APPROACH LATER SATURDAY INTO EASTERSUNDAY. TEMPS ARE OF COURSE TRICKY DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO HOLD BELOW FREEZING PENDINGTHE TRACK OF HEAVIER WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY...BY LATEWEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...IF WE DO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT SNOWOVER PARTS OF THE AREA...THE TEMP RESPONSE WILL BE QUITE MUTED.STAY TUNED! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Interested, but in the camp I'll believe it when I see it mentality Yeah, I think this is pure trolling by the Euro, pretty sure the heavy snow sets up to our north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would havelol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Could you post the snow map once it's fully out? Sucks not to have it and it seems like we are the only ones who care about this storm since hardly anyone else is posting last couple days except Tom lol That's because no one cares if you get snow. Sound familiar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 That's because no one cares if you get snow. Sound familiar? You sound salty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 My subscription to WxBell expired and I'm not renewing it until next winter, but I looked at the Weather Undergroup ECMWF map and it shows a deformation band of snow in SE Iowa into NC IL and SE WI developing after the leading leading edge comes through. It's a narrow band and to be honest, not something I'd remotely get my hopes up for. The leading wave will produce the most snow and at this time it sure looks like northern IA and especially southern MN into Western and central WI are the prime spots. Probably about time to start a thread for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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