Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

GFS gets it down to 984 in SW Iowa literally in the same exact spot as 18z. 

[Geos]

I don't buy the front placement overhead. But we'll see...

 

[Geos]

Low looks to stay right along Iowa state line.

 

[Money]

Actually it looks colder compared to 18z.

 

Snowfall map through hr 84:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/00Z/f084/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

The GFS is a bit south, the low doesn't enter SE WI on this run.

[Money]

The GFS is a bit south, the low doesn't enter SE WI on this run.

 

Could have sworn it was going more north early on the run with it being stronger etc. Goes more west to east down the road though

[bud2380]

The deformation band did sink south a smidge and brings a couple inches to CR. Closer to euro but still a long ways away from what the euro shows.

[Geos]

Could have sworn it was going more north early on the run with it being stronger etc. Goes more west to east down the road though

 

High is stronger out ahead of it. More solid banana high.

[Madtown]

What time for the euro?

[Geos]

What time for the euro?

 

About 12:50.

[Money]

What time for the euro?

 

12:50 AM or so it starts running.

 

GGEM is starting up now. UKIE will be out in 40 mins and then GFS Ensembles and euro 

[Madtown]

Well that aint hapening

[Money]

GGEM way slower with the front. 850 MB line is pretty far north compared to 12z through HR 60 

[Money]

12z HR 72

 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif

 

0z HR 60

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

[Geos]

The high isn't built up in front of it like the last run.

 

That low S of Greenland is influencing it.

 

72 hours.

 

[bud2380]

Ggem took a shift back south

[Money]

Although the difference at 72 isn't that much at all. The low is a bit east compared to 12z and 2 mb weaker

[Geos]

High is a touch stronger and a bit farther southwest of James Bay.

[Madtown]

South, east, weaker....haven't seen that before lmao!

[Money]

Here is HR 84

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif

[Money]

South, east, weaker....haven't seen that before lmao!

 

Still produces nearly 3 inch QPF in the cold sector lol

 

it's about 2-3 MB weaker and a tad SE.

[Madtown]

Still 3 more days☺

[Money]

Still 3 more days☺

 

The low starts forming in less than 2 days lol 

[Geos]

96 hours.

 

[Madtown]

[Money]

Looks like 52 MM QPF stripe around HR 84 near Sheboygan area which is like 2.00 QPF and then you have stuff before and after that. 

[Geos]

TT maps already at 30 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016032100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=195

[Money]

HR 66:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032100/gem_asnow_us_11.png

[Geos]

Looks like the GGEM hangs the low back a bit.

 

 

Front keeps on sliding south between 66-72 hours. 

[Geos]

Difference in NE IL with temps at this time. Lake is helping with the CAA.

 

 

[Money]

Looks like the heaviest precip comes in overnight Wed and into the morning hours on Thursday which should help with the accumulation 

[Geos]

GGEM seems stalled at hour 66. 

[Money]

GGEM seems stalled at hour 66. 

 

Out to HR 54 on pivotal already. 

[Money]

Precip maps on GGEM 

 

HR 63:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032100/I_nw_EST_2016032100_063.png

 

75

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032100/I_nw_EST_2016032100_075.png

 

87

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032100/I_nw_EST_2016032100_087.png

[Geos]

Badgers gets pounded. 

 

[Money]

Badgers gets pounded. 

 

6 HR snowfall from 72-78:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160321/00Z/f078/6hkucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

And total snowfall on GGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160321/00Z/f090/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Yeah, that's not happening 

[Money]

OT but GFS doesn't get the temps out of the 20's in WI/MN/IA from HR 200 until the end of the run.

 

Also shows pretty much every member in this subforum here with 12+ inches of snow. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/00Z/f300/acckucherasnowconus.png

[Geos]

And total snowfall on GGEM:

 

 

Yeah, that's not happening 

 

It's going EURO! Lol

 

Snow made headway into NW IL on this run.

[MKEstorm]

Badgers gets pounded. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032100/gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

 

Looks like there's a range of about 10 inches southern MKE County to about two feet northern MKE County! Lol. What? An inch a mile!

I wonder if the Euro will nudge a smidge north tonight? I always felt the heaviest would just be to my north!