Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

Quite a bit south through 36

 

Low is in northern Kansas compared to southern Nebraska

[CentralNebWeather]

That would boost my totals

[Geos]

NAM is a touch further south in northern KS, instead of southern NE. What you guys said^

 

Front makes it into southern Cook County by 36 hours.

 

Makes it to I-80 at 39 hours - that's new.

[gosaints]

hour 45 looks about identical placement to my eye

[bud2380]

Looks a touch further north to me thru 51 hours vs 18z

[jcwxguy]

nam is trolling lincoln and omaha LOL

[Geos]

Looks a touch further north to me thru 51 hours vs 18z

 

It's staying about 30 miles further south so far.

 

Tight gradient.

 

[gosaints]

The surface low is south???

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160322/00Z/f60/crefptypemw.png

[Money]

It started off south by quite a bit

[Geos]

The surface low is south???

 

It was until 54 hours. It is slower this run and allows it to amplify more.

Classic NAM.

 

Would like to see it dig a bit more.

[hlcater]

Might be able to squeeze out some inches further south due to a more pronounced deformation band

[hlcater]

By inches I mean like 1-3 and no more than that

[gosaints]

It was until 54 hours.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160322/00Z/f66/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

 

I was talking about the low track, not the snow placement.

[gosaints]

After about hour 36 the low track was just slower i thought.  either way noise.

 

4km NAM hammers the twin cities metro

[Geos]

4km NAM trying to get a small deformation band going in eastern Iowa at the end of its run.

 

[Madtown]

Gfs for the win!

[GDR]

[jcwxguy]

low is a touch south at hour 39

[NEJeremy]

Deformation band totally craps out here in eastern Nebraska.

[Geos]

GFS is south like the NAM.

 

It brings the front through around 9pm now.

[Money]

Gfs for the win!

Keeps inching south each run

[Geos]

Low track from St. Joseph, MO to Gary now.

 

Ice in SW WI, Madison.

 

[NEJeremy]

2' in central Wisconsin again.

[hlcater]

Euro for the win? I wish but nahhh.

[Geos]

Euro for the win? I wish but nahhh.

 

If the EURO stays put, then the GFS is caving partially.

 

[Money]

Yeah, I don't think either model will cave that much to each other. What will happen is they will make small, minor moves each run and end up compromising between the two. Euro started moving a tad north on 12z and GFS inching south each run now as well. 

[Geos]

So far the low on the GGEM is near Salina, KS at 36 hours.

 

A bit south of the GFS, and NAM.

 

Near St. Joseph, MO AT 48 hours. 993mb

[Money]

997 around Chicago at HR 60.

 

Pretty similar to GFS

[Geos]

997 around Chicago at HR 60.

 

Pretty similar to GFS

 

Yeah looks like it is over Grundy County.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032200/gem_asnow_us_9.png

[Geos]

54 hours. Track is similar, but snow band is further north. It's doing what the NAM did.

 

 

GEM really keeps that front north...

[Money]

Gonna be interesting if Ukie/Euro follow the lead of GGEM and move north or if they stay similar to 12z

[Money]

GGEM 6 HR Snowfall Totals:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160322/00Z/f054/6hkucherasnowmw.png

 

14.8 inches of snow in 6 hours lol 

[Geos]

GGEM 6 HR Snowfall Totals:

 

 

 

14.8 inches of snow in 6 hours lol 

 

About 2.5"/hour.

[Money]

UKIE HR 60:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Money]

And GGEM total snowfall:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160322/00Z/f066/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

GFS Ensembles way south

 

Here it is at HR 60:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11.png

 

Many take the low a good deal south of Chicago. 

[Money]

Majority of them actually keep the low out of Iowa.

 

HR 54:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032200/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_9.png