Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 0z NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f45/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Both nam's cut back on the good stuff considerably. not uncommon i guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 4kmhttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/acckucherasnowmw.png Little bit left to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Odd looking radar composite http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/crefmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Ice moving south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Odd looking radar composite http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160323/00Z/f36/crefmw.pngDry air? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Fizzle fizzle fizzle into a turd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Total snowfall, including secondary defo band. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 It's gonna be interesting to see which model does the best with this with regards to the track of the low and snowfall amounts. NAM still on the northern end of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks better for eastern Nebraska at least! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 RGEM at hour 24 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_024.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 RGEM at hour 24 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_024.png South compared to 18z. Almost brings snow to Milwaukee/Geos at HR 18 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032300/I_nw_EST_2016032300_018.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Low rides the Iowa border on the RGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Low rides the Iowa border on the RGEM Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. I was just stating that low rides the Iowa border Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Look at it compared to 12z/18z. Obvious shift south with the rain/snow/mix line. About 25 miles north of here still. Front crossing the NW Tollway/90 very shortly. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Wife wants to know what time this is going to start tomorrow...icy crap. She's out in Dodgeville west of Madison by about 45 mi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Total snowfall, including secondary defo band. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.pngNice southeast trend, looks like backside defo band drops some heavy rates. I'm in the running for 6" if that trend continues, that would make it 3-3 with this wave according to the LRC! Can't wait to see what this version brings in may!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Wife wants to know what time this is going to start tomorrow...icy crap. She's out in Dodgeville west of Madison by about 45 mi. Looks like about 7pm off the 4km NAM. I'd say an error of an hour though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Already 37° in Milwaukee. About 40° at MSN, which is two hours ahead of schedule (HRRR). Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Calm before the storm in here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 RGEM is like 6° too warm with temps around here initially... Front gets pretty far south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 FXUS63 KMKX 230306 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT CHARGED DOWN THE LAKE WITH THE FINE LINE ON THE MKX 88-D SHOWING A CONTINUED SWLY MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AS HI- RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATING DRY AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME UNTIL STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN TOWARD 12Z WED. AND AFTER. STILL LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN TO START...GOING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX IN THE FAR NORTH BY MID-MORNING. LOOKING AT A DPROG/DT OF 18Z TUE AND 00Z WED NAM...IT SHOWS NO CHANGE AT 00Z THU AND 06Z THU WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW...BUT IS A BIT SLOWER BY 12Z THU AND BIT FARTHER SOUTH AT 18Z THU...THOUGH THICKNESS PATTERN IS THE SAME. NO CHANGE TO GOING HEADLINES FOR NOW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 GFS back north with a max snowfall of 27 right around gosaints area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Nice the see the nam and gfs are on the.same page regarding qpf!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Nice the see the nam and gfs are on the.same page regarding qpf!!! NAM with 1.0 QPF for you and GFS with 2.1 lol and we are within 36-42 hours of the event. Went from 11 on 18z GFS to 2 on the 0z. Stupid models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 NAM with 1.0 QPF for you and GFS with 2.1 lol and we are within 36-42 hours of the event. Went from 11 on 18z GFS to 2 on the 0z. Stupid models.This really is a dumb hobby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Now GFS shows a secondary defo band after the low passes and gives Milwaukee nearly 5 inches of snow lol http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f048/6hkucherasnowmw.png Total: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 1/2 days away from the event: NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f54/acckucherasnowmw.png GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160323/00Z/f054/acckucherasnowmw.png Pretty close eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Lol should go back in time...do away with this hypersensitive forecasting and forecast snow, rain or both. Make people become aware of what's going on around them. When there is 5" on the ground think about going home, when there is 7. Time to get going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Green Bay UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016 NEW NAM SIMILAR IN KEEPING LEAD BAND OF PCPN S OF THE AREAOVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWER IN DEVELOPING SNOWSACRS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO HAS THE SHARPCUT-OFF ON THE FLANK OF THE SYSTEM THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FORSOME TIME. ONE ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THEPCPN/STRONGER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION ISLESS LIKELY. MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WE MAY NEED TO BACK DOWN A BIT ONSNOWFALL TOTALS. WL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL ON THATAFTER SEEING THE ENTIRE 00Z DATA SET. WL ALSO LEAVE IT TO THE MID-SHIFT TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO TAKE THE REMAINING WATCH TO AWARNING OR AN ADVISORY. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 1/2 days away from the event: NAM: GFS: Pretty close eh? Hoping the reel that in here in the end.Close Front almost to Hyde Park now. 38° here now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Money gonna like the ggem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Money gonna like the ggem Seems north of 12z, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Seems north of 12z, no?You do pretty good on the fronto I think. Just loaded further maybe just north of you precip more west east based than gfs or nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Snow is farther south into the Milwaukee metro on the GEM in the evening. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160323/00Z/f039/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 2+ QPF on GGEM for areas just like GFS. Odd seeing NAM the lowest QPF wise.. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160323/00Z/f039/accqpfmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 I think the GEM is running too warm in eastern WI. Warmest of all of models. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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