Jesse Posted May 24, 2016 Report Share Posted May 24, 2016 Time to get everyone's input on what has become quite the hot ( but probably just ends up close to average) debate. Departure from normal ( °F with sig figs to the tenths place ) for the following stations: PDXSEAEUGOLMDCA For the following months: JuneJulyAugustSeptember To be included in the final ranking, you must provide a guess for each station, for each month. Interested to see what everybody thinks! Deadline for entries is May 31st at 11:59pm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 24, 2016 Report Share Posted May 24, 2016 This'll be a fun one. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 I need Phil to make his forecast first. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 I need Phil to make his forecast first. If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 PDX June: +2.1 July: +.8 Aug: -1.0 Sep: +.4 SEA June: +2.4 July: +1.2 Aug: -.4 Sep: +.2 EUG June: +1.3 July: +.2 Aug: -1.3 Sep: 0.0 OLM June: +1.5 July: +.3 Aug: -1.2 Sep: -.7 DCA June: +.4 July: +1.4 Aug: +3.3 Sep: +2.8 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 If you're worried about DCA, just forecast a blowtorch and you'll be in the ballpark. I'll have my forecast up sometime before the end of the week. No... I want to see what your actual predictions are for the PNW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Rough estimates, will narrow it down next update. Want to see how models handle forcing over the next week. PDX June: +3.5July: 0.0August: -2.0September +0.5 SEA June: +4.5July: +1.0August: -1.5September: 0.0 EUG June: +3.0July -0.5August: -1.5September: +0.0 OLM June: +4.0July: -0.5August: -1.5September -0.5 DCA June +1.0July +4.5August +5.0September +5.0 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 PDX: June: + 2.0July: + 1.4August: + 1.0September: 0.0October: + 7.0 (kidding!!!!) SEA: June: + 2.2July: + 1.6August: + 1.1September: 0.0 EUG: June: + 1.8July: + 1.4August: + 1.2September: + 0.5 OLM: June: + 1.8July: + 1.1August: + 0.5September: - 1.0 DCA: June: + 1.0July: + 1.8August: + 2.5September: + 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 PDXJune: +2.8July: +2.5August: -1.6September +0.5SEA June: +2.9July: +2.6August: -1.2September: +0.4EUG June: +2.2July +2.4August: -1.4September: +0.3OLMJune: +2.0July: +1.9August: -1.8September 0.0 DCA June: +1.5July: +4.2August: +4.9September +3.8 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 No love for DCA? Show a little backbone. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 No love for DCA? Show a little backbone. Hot! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Hot!Lol, don't be a wuss. Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Lol, don't be a wuss. Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. The West. Name of forum. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Lol, don't be a wuss. Plus your score won't count if you don't. Time to step out of your comfort zone. Oh crap... I did not notice it was a requirement for DCA to be included. I thought that was just you throwing it in there. I will update my previous post. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 The West. Name of forum.The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time. Grow a pair. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 The goal is to avoid the mathematical conundrum we ran into last time. Grow a pair. Absolutely agree with this... we have to play the same game regardless of rules. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 PDX 2.21.7.7.8 SEA 2.51.5.5.9 EUG 2.61.2-.1.7 OLM 2.110.4 DCA 2.54.572 ***subject to change pending tomorrow's NAM runs*** Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 For reference... this was the summer of 2015 at SEA: June: +6.8July +5.5August +2.6September -0.8 Must have been a developing Nina with an early peak to summer. Nina forcing clearly took hold as the summer progressed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Absolutely agree with this... we have to play the same game regardless of rules.DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise.It's not a joke, I implied it should be included in a comment a few days ago. There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This levels the playing field somewhat. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Not a joke, I implied it should be included a few days ago. There's one east-coaster here forecasting in territory unfamiliar to said poster. This the playing field somewhat. But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 But we could all just copy your forecast for DCA and nullify it as an difference maker.True, but I suspect you're better than that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 PDX June: +2.3July: +1.7August: -0.1September: +1.3 SEA June: +2.8July: +1.5August: +0.2September: +1.8 EUG: June: +1.9July: +1.1August: -0.4September: +1.0 OLM: June: +2.2July: +1.4August: -0.1September: +0.9 A tremendously cool summer incoming, by virtue of the fact that there will be no record warm months. August is going to localized cool anomaly party like it's 1995. DCA will see +14, +13, +69, and +googol, respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 DCA is thousands of miles from the other stations. Jesse put it in as a joke, I m treating it as such. Doesn't make sense otherwise. It actually wasn't meant to be a joke. More like a sort of tiebreaker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 I think Phil is going too warm for June. And he will adjust downward before the contest starts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 I think Phil is going too warm for June. And he will adjust downward before the contest starts.Yeah, he probably will. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard. I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 I'm surprised at how quickly the Walker Cell is transitioning. We're about to leapfrog a bunch of analogs in that regard. I'm definitely adjusting June downward, probably July too. Just not sure by how much yet.Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month. Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month. I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month. I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.Warm all spring? Has Troughzilla already been forgotten?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Warm all spring? Has Troughzilla already been forgotten?? Most of spring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Yeah... but maybe a big crash earlier in the month. I am not sure how big of a crash though. Its hard to find years in our history that were very warm all spring and then had big heat in the first part of June and then just turned colder and wetter than normal.That's why I was (and still am, somewhat) skeptical of sliding into the Niña/-AAM background before July. Hard to get it done before then, but it's happened before. You have to back to the 1930s, I believe (based on reconstructive analysis), which coincidently was the last time we saw a persistent +IO/+PDO under a developing Niña. Still, I don't like relying on old analogs like that. That said, there's no denying this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052706&fh=342&xpos=0&ypos=471 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2016 Report Share Posted May 27, 2016 Interesting that you say this, since the models are trending warmer than ever for the first week of the month.My +4.5 June idea was based on the premise of a blowtorch through ~ June 20th, associated with the PNA/AAM spike. A faster/more aggressive return of IO/MT forcing in early/mid June would cut that blowtorch short by about a week. I'm probably going to have to go with my gut on this one. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2016 PDX: June: 2.1 July: 1.1 August: 0.2 September 0.1 SEA: June: 2.4 July: 1.3 August: 0.5 September: -0.1 EUG: June 1.9 July: 0.8 August: 0.0 September: -0.3 OLM: June: 1.8 July: 0.9 August: -0.1 September: -0.7 DCA: June: 0.5 July: 2.9 August: 3.8 September: 4.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2016 Just two more days to go! Let's get those predictions in/tweak existing ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2016 Report Share Posted May 29, 2016 Figures one of the most complicated pattern evolutions possible (from a predictive standpoint) will occur over the next 3-4 weeks. I'll probably wait until last minute..need all the data I can get. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 I like Jesse's forecast... very much what I am thinking as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 PDX June: +2.8July: +1.2August: +1.5September: +0.8 SEA June: +2.9July: +1.1August: +1.6September: +1.2 EUG: June: +2.4July: +1.0August: +0.8September: +0.8 OLM: June: +2.1July: +1.3August: +1.1September: +1.0 DCA: June: 0.0July: +1.5Aug: +3.5Sept: +3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Update..might tweak these numbers a bit before the deadline. Most uncertain month is July. If I miss my timing by as little as two weeks, it'll be potentially problematic for me. PDX: June: +2.2July: -0.7August: -1.5September: -1.5 SEA June: +2.6July: -0.4August: -1.1September: -0.9 EUG June: +2.2July: -0.9August: -1.9September: -1.7 OLM June: +1.8July: -1.3August: -1.9September: -1.7 DCA June: +2.8July: +3.8August: +4.3September +4.7 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 A couple ballsy calls to close things out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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