June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Pseudo nice, though.

Could be a pseudonina for all we know.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, you were saying July would "blowtorch" just a few weeks ago. Sticking to your guns on that one?

 

FWIW, back in late May you also said ridging would return mid June.

 

I never stuck to the blowtorch comment... and did not forecast that for July in our contest.    That was more in reference to 1889.   

 

The heat wave in early June reset the table on my timing and I adjusted accordingly.     Troughing for the middle two weeks of June... warm the last week of June... troughing in early July.

 

For the record... I think the rest of the summer will play out similar to 1988.   After the troughing in early July... it will become focused a little farther north.   So while there might the anchor ridges offshore and over the middle of the country... I don't think that means the default troughing will be very deep over the Western US overall.   And we will have a few short periods of ridging and warm/hot weather in the mid-July through mid-August period.   

[Front Ranger]

I never stuck to the blowtorch comment... and did not forecast that for July in our contest.    That was more in reference to 1889.   

 

The heat wave in early June reset the table on my timing and I adjusted accordingly.     Troughing for the middle two weeks of June... warm the last week of June... troughing in early July.

 

For the record... I think the rest of the summer will play out similar to 1988.   After the troughing in early July... it will become focused a little farther north.   So while there might the anchor ridges offshore and over the middle of the country... I don't think that means the default troughing will be very deep over the Western US overall.   And we will have a few short periods of ridging and warm/hot weather in the mid-July through mid-August period.  

 

   

 

Didn't you just say EVERY year has at least this?

[TT-SEA]

   

 

Didn't you just say EVERY year has at least this?

 

 

Look at 1988 for an example.   

 

A few periods of well above normal temps... not all years have that.  

[Phil]

I never stuck to the blowtorch comment... and did not forecast that for July in our contest. That was more in reference to 1889.

 

The heat wave in early June reset the table on my timing and I adjusted accordingly. Troughing for the middle two weeks of June... warm the last week of June... troughing in early July.

 

For the record... I think the rest of the summer will play out similar to 1988. After the troughing in early July... it will become focused a little farther north. So while there might the anchor ridges offshore and over the middle of the country... I don't think that means the default troughing will be very deep over the Western US overall. And we will have a few short periods of ridging and warm/hot weather in the mid-July through mid-August period.

Alright. Just saying, you've changed your forecast more than once. Here are a few examples.

 

July will blowtorch... JAS will average slightly above normal. Sticking with it... not because of what I want but because it's what I think based on history. Spring of 2017 will be cold and wet. Not sure how I can forecast that since it's the opposite of what I want. Hope I am wrong!

 

Not sure if you're sticking with the warm J/A/S or not.

 

Right. Very warm mid-March through mid-May. Then cooler and wetter from mid-May until possibly mid-June. Hard to determine if that was correct.

Turned out that there was a heatwave in early June, followed by troughing through mid/late June, which averaged cooler than normal.

[Phil]

Just goes to show, long range forecasting is a difficult and fickle beast, despite the claims of those who thump their chests and declare victory 24/7.

[TT-SEA]

Alright. Just saying, you've changed your forecast more than once. Here are a few examples.

 

 

 

Not sure if you're sticking with the warm J/A/S or not.

 

 

Turned out that there was a heatwave in early June, followed by troughing through mid/late June, which averaged cooler than normal.

 

 

The heat wave in early June was a surprise.   A nice surprise... but still not expected.

 

After that... my timing was reset.   

 

Mid to late June is not all troughing.   The first week was sort of troughy and the second week (right now) is solid ridging.

[TT-SEA]

Just goes to show, long range forecasting is a difficult and fickle beast, despite those who claim otherwise, thumping their chests and claiming victory 24/7.

 

 

I am not claiming victory 24/7.  

 

But I have not done as bad as implied many times.  

[Phil]

The heat wave in early June was a surprise. A nice surprise... but still not expected.

 

After that... my timing was reset.

 

Mid to late June is not all troughing. The first week was sort of troughy and the second week (right now) is solid ridging.

Also, here are the last 7 days of the month (6/18 to 6/25), both absolute 500mb geopotential heights and 850mb temperature anomalies.

 

Looks like troughing to me.

 

[TT-SEA]

Also, here are the last 7 days of the month (6/18 to 6/25), both absolute 500mb geopotential heights and 850mb temperature anomalies.

 

Looks like troughing to me.

 

image.gifimage.gif

 

 

Yeah... looking at the second half of June the first week was sort of troughy and the second week is ridgy.    We are definitely ridgy right now and its late June.

[Phil]

I am not claiming victory 24/7.  

 

But I have not done as bad as implied many times.  

I wasn't saying you were.

 

Plus I don't even call you out on your busts unless you call me out on mine, of which I have plenty.

[Phil]

Yeah... looking at the second half of June the first week was sort of troughy and the second week is ridgy. We are definitely ridgy right now and its late June.

Troughing continued up until June 24th, or into the 4th week of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Troughing continued up until June 24th.

 

 

Exactly.      And mid to late June also goes for another week after that... and its not troughy right now.  

 

[Deweydog]

Troughing continued up until June 24th.

Troughing actually wrapped up at 11:38:52 p.m. PDT on the 23rd.

 

You two need to start paying attention and stop this broadbrushing crap.

[Phil]

Troughing actually wrapped up at 11:38:52 p.m. PDT on the 23rd.

 

You two need to start paying attention and stop this broadbrushing crap.

I know I know, sheesh.

[Phil]

Exactly. And mid to late June also goes for another week after that... and its not troughy right now.

 

Yeah, you said that 8 days later, after the June heatwave popped up in the middle of your troughy period.

 

Point is, you've screwed up just as often as I have. Long range is tough, so it's no biggie.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you said that 8 days later, after the June heatwave popped up in the middle of your troughy period.

 

 

Yep... timing adjusted for an unexpected event.  

 

Doing good after the adjustment.   Troughing June 10-24... ridgy the last week of June... troughy the first week of July.

[Phil]

Yep... timing adjusted for an unexpected event.

 

Doing good after the adjustment. Troughing June 10-24... ridgy the last week of June... troughy the first week of July.

So now the question is, is this (potential) early July trough just a 1-2 day fluke-type deal that precedes the real stuff later in the month? Or is it something more prolonged that carries through the month?

 

My guess is the former. I think any troughing before mid-July will be transient. We'll see, I guess.

[TT-SEA]

So now the question is, is this (potential) early July trough just a 1-2 day fluke-type deal that precedes the real stuff later in the month? Or is it something more prolonged that carries through the month?

 

My guess is the former. I think any troughing before mid-July will be transient. We'll see, I guess.

 

 

Probably transient.

 

And I am pretty sure there is no major change to our weather coming from mid July through mid August.   

 

Rain will be sparse... sunshine will be plentiful... and temps will be warm.    The usual.    Maybe not above normal but there will be no 'crash'.

 

Any significant troughing and cloudy/damp weather in that period will be transient as well.  

[Phil]

Coherent wave1 forcing mode depicted on all modeling going through July and into August, so certainly no mixed signals.

 

I guess the question is how fast does it all propagate east? The EWP based diagrams have it traversing somewhat slower than I'd expect, but I guess we'll see. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif

[Phil]

Probably transient.

 

And I am pretty sure there is no major change to our weather coming from mid July through mid August.

 

Rain will be sparse... sunshine will be plentiful... and temps will be warm. The usual. Maybe not above normal but there will be no 'crash'.

 

Any significant troughing and cloudy/damp weather in that period will be transient as well.

I agree, considering how vague this is.

[Phil]

Speaking of dewpoints, the country as a whole is running a record low monthly dewpoint for June, so far at least. We haven't had any heavy dewpoint days here as of yet.

Figures that 18 hours after I post this, the dewpoint hits 77F. One day I'll learn to just shut my mouth.

[TT-SEA]

Figures that 18 hours after I post this, the dewpoint hits 77F. One day I'll learn to just shut my mouth.

85 with a dewpoint of 60 here.

[Phil]

85 with a dewpoint of 60 here.

I hate you.

[TT-SEA]

I hate you.

  

 

83 with a dewpoint of 72 and light rain at DCA.

[Phil]

83 with a dewpoint of 72 and light rain at DCA.

Yeah, I live in the worst place possible for dewpoints. Sandwiched between Booze Creek Park & the Potomac River Valley, surrounded by 300yr old trees. Water and transpiration ftw.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I live in the worst place possible for dewpoints. Sandwiched between Booze Creek Park and the Potomac River Valley, surrounded by 300yr old trees. Water and transpiration ftw.

 

Petri dish.  

[TT-SEA]

85 at SEA today... 87 at PDX.

 

Warmer up here and a little cooler down there.

 

Theme continues... the warm anomalies are much larger than the cool anomalies.    Today was +10 at SEA.   The last -10 day was November 29, 2015.    The is the 6th day this month alone with a departure at or greater than +10.   There have been 25 days at or greater than +10  in 2016 and zero days with a negative departure of -10 or greater.    The largest negative departure of the year has been -7.

[TT-SEA]

Lone cumulonimbus cloud over the Cascades right now...

 

[Front Ranger]

Yep... timing adjusted for an unexpected event.

 

Doing good after the adjustment. Troughing June 10-24... ridgy the last week of June... troughy the first week of July.

It wasn't just an event. The pattern was warm and ridgy for over a week.

 

Not that I have a dog in this fight.

[Front Ranger]

85 at SEA today... 87 at PDX.

 

Warmer up here and a little cooler down there.

 

Theme continues... the warm anomalies are much larger than the cool anomalies. Today was +10 at SEA. The last -10 day was November 29, 2015. The is the 6th day this month alone with a departure at or greater than +10. There have been 25 days at or greater than +10 in 2016 and zero days with a negative departure of -10 or greater. The largest negative departure of the year has been -7.

All true stats...but again stats that get exaggerated to a certain extent by SEA running warmer anomalies than stations that haven't seen increased UHI.

 

From an anomaly perspective, SEA will skew warm (AGW aside) for another 15+ years.

[TT-SEA]

It wasn't just an event. The pattern was warm and ridgy for over a week.

Not that I have a dog in this fight.

Yes... meant that.

[Deweydog]

All true stats...but again stats that get exaggerated to a certain extent by SEA running warmer anomalies than stations that haven't seen increased UHI.

 

From an anomaly perspective, SEA will skew warm (AGW aside) for another 15+ years.

 

To think, many folks were celebrating the ease of negative departures when the 1981-2010's freshly kicked in.  Good times.  And good times ahead again in 2020!

[TT-SEA]

All true stats...but again stats that get exaggerated to a certain extent by SEA running warmer anomalies than stations that haven't seen increased UHI.

From an anomaly perspective, SEA will skew warm (AGW aside) for another 15+ years.

You said SEA runs 1 degree warmer than OLM in terms of departures... attributed to UHI. So the story above is still very much the same.

[Front Ranger]

To think, many folks were celebrating the ease of negative departures when the 1981-2010's freshly kicked in.  Good times.  And good times ahead again in 2020!

 

Indeed. And for the 2010-13 period, of course, the negative departures were coming fairly regularly.

 

The thing is, SEA actually started skewing warmer in 2006, but because they weren't putting up record warm months left and right, it wasn't as obvious. But OLM was still running noticeably colder from 2006-13, and actually put up some fairly impressive numbers for the modern era.

 

- 2011 was the second coldest year at OLM since 1975, beat out narrowly by 1985

- 2008 was third coldest

- 4/5 years from 2007-12 were colder than the long term (not just 1981-2010) station average

- Dec 2009 was the second coldest December on record, after 1990

- Oct 2013 was the chilliest October since 1972

- March 2009 was the coldest March since 1971

- April 2011 was the second coldest April on record, just behind 1955

- May 2011 was coldest May since 1964

- Dec 2008 and 2009 were the coldest back to back Decembers on record

 

A lot of stuff that generally got overlooked, because the same didn't apply to SEA.

[Front Ranger]

85 at SEA today... 87 at PDX.

 

Warmer up here and a little cooler down there.

 

Theme continues... the warm anomalies are much larger than the cool anomalies.    Today was +10 at SEA.   The last -10 day was November 29, 2015.    The is the 6th day this month alone with a departure at or greater than +10.   There have been 25 days at or greater than +10  in 2016 and zero days with a negative departure of -10 or greater.    The largest negative departure of the year has been -7.

 

 

You said SEA runs 1 degree warmer than OLM in terms of departures... attributed to UHI. So the story above is still very much the same.

 

The story is similar (it's been warm), but different. OLM has seen two days this month with -9 anomalies. They saw a -17 anomaly in January, and have seen 7 days with with -9 or greater anomaly since 11/29.

 

The other example you gave a week or so back (the number of -4 days at SEA this year) really illustrated the differences that can emerge. OLM had seen like 10 to 1 number of -4 days at that point.

[MossMan]

Perfect day!!

[Deweydog]

Indeed. And for the 2010-13 period, of course, the negative departures were coming fairly regularly.

 

The thing is, SEA actually started skewing warmer in 2006, but because they weren't putting up record warm months left and right, it wasn't as obvious. But OLM was still running noticeably colder from 2006-13, and actually put up some fairly impressive numbers for the modern era.

 

- 2011 was the second coldest year at OLM since 1975, beat out narrowly by 1985

- 2008 was third coldest

- 4/5 years from 2007-12 were colder than the long term (not just 1981-2010) station average

- Dec 2009 was the second coldest December on record, after 1990

- Oct 2013 was the chilliest October since 1972

- March 2009 was the coldest March since 1971

- April 2011 was the second coldest April on record, just behind 1955

- May 2011 was coldest May since 1964

- Dec 2008 and 2009 were the coldest back to back Decembers on record

 

A lot of stuff that generally got overlooked, because the same didn't apply to SEA.

The whole 2006-13 thing reminds me of Jack as he walks into his psychiatrist's waiting room...

 

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eekobVxzf1Y

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I live in the worst place possible for dewpoints. Sandwiched between Booze Creek Park & the Potomac River Valley, surrounded by 300yr old trees. Water and transpiration ftw.

 

There is seriously a Booze Creek there? 

[snow_wizard]

Indeed. And for the 2010-13 period, of course, the negative departures were coming fairly regularly.

 

The thing is, SEA actually started skewing warmer in 2006, but because they weren't putting up record warm months left and right, it wasn't as obvious. But OLM was still running noticeably colder from 2006-13, and actually put up some fairly impressive numbers for the modern era.

 

- 2011 was the second coldest year at OLM since 1975, beat out narrowly by 1985

- 2008 was third coldest

- 4/5 years from 2007-12 were colder than the long term (not just 1981-2010) station average

- Dec 2009 was the second coldest December on record, after 1990

- Oct 2013 was the chilliest October since 1972

- March 2009 was the coldest March since 1971

- April 2011 was the second coldest April on record, just behind 1955

- May 2011 was coldest May since 1964

- Dec 2008 and 2009 were the coldest back to back Decembers on record

 

A lot of stuff that generally got overlooked, because the same didn't apply to SEA.

 

There was a lot of cold in that period but so much of it came during parts of the year that made it much less noteworthy than if it had happened in January.  I will say Dec 2008, Nov 2010, and Feb 2011 were pretty impressive.  The whole thing with the SEA records is just plain sad and irritating.  The observations there are pretty much meaningless now.  It makes the near record low earlier this month much more impressive though.