June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Perfect day!!

 

Perfect would have been 10 degrees cooler in the morning and lower humidity.  Certainly way better than the mega torch last year though.

[Phil]

There is seriously a Booze Creek there?

Lol, yeah. I've been meaning to wiki it for awhile now.

[BLI snowman]

Indeed. And for the 2010-13 period, of course, the negative departures were coming fairly regularly.

 

The thing is, SEA actually started skewing warmer in 2006, but because they weren't putting up record warm months left and right, it wasn't as obvious. But OLM was still running noticeably colder from 2006-13, and actually put up some fairly impressive numbers for the modern era.

 

- 2011 was the second coldest year at OLM since 1975, beat out narrowly by 1985

- 2008 was third coldest

- 4/5 years from 2007-12 were colder than the long term (not just 1981-2010) station average

- Dec 2009 was the second coldest December on record, after 1990

- Oct 2013 was the chilliest October since 1972

- March 2009 was the coldest March since 1971

- April 2011 was the second coldest April on record, just behind 1955

- May 2011 was coldest May since 1964

- Dec 2008 and 2009 were the coldest back to back Decembers on record

 

A lot of stuff that generally got overlooked, because the same didn't apply to SEA.

I think the ready-to-go list of 2008-13 cold feats is quite adorable. I can picture you traveling around the country going office to office offering PowerPoint presentations about this to anyone who will listen.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is warmer and drier for the weekend compared to its 12Z run.

 

Trough is farther north... very much like the ECMWF ensemble mean now.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS has a -PNA/NW trough through most of the run.

[Deweydog]

The 00z GFS has a -PNA/NW trough through most of the run.

Pseudo?

[TT-SEA]

The 00z GFS has a -PNA/NW trough through most of the run.

 

That is the best kind of trough... it hangs semi-permanently to our north and west for the most part in normal summer fashion on that run.  Heights here stay in the 576-582DM range for the most part and 850mb temps are in the 12-18C range.

 

There is almost no rain the entire run for Seattle and Portland and most days would be in the 70s to low 80s and sunny.

 

00Z Canadian is about the same.

[Phil]

Pseudo?

Any trough that doesn't fit my forecast is a pseudotrough. Same goes for ridging.

[Phil]

That is the best kind of trough... it hangs semi-permanently to our north and west for the most part in normal summer fashion. Heights here stay in the 576-582DM range for the most part and 850mb temps are in the 12-18C range.

 

There is almost no rain the entire run here and most days would be in the 70s to low 80s and sunny.

 

00Z Canadian is about the same.

Yeah, verbatim the GFS solution is dry and slightly cooler than average, for the most part. Looks like the -PNA/Aleutian Ridge is pretty much locked in.

[TT-SEA]

Here is total 17-day precip from the 00Z GFS.

 

Seattle and Portland are basically dry for 2 1/2 weeks.   Sure is wet elsewhere!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, verbatim the GFS solution is dry and slightly cooler than average, for the most part. Looks like the -PNA/Aleutian Ridge is pretty much locked in.

 

 

Absolutely gorgeous.

 

Hope it works out that way.

[Phil]

Also, that seemingly semi-permanent +NAO vortex that has dominated the last 3 years appears to be present yet again this summer. What will it take to get rid of that thing?

 

If a Super Niño wavetrain can't shake it, I don't know what can. Something significant is behind the persistence of that feature.

[TT-SEA]

Also, that seemingly semi-permanent +NAO vortex that has dominated the last 3 years appears to be present yet again this summer. What will it take to get rid of that thing?

 

If a Super Niño wavetrain can't shake it, I don't know what can. Something significant is behind the persistence of that feature.

 

 

Warming climate?

[Deweydog]

Also, that seemingly semi-permanent +NAO vortex that has dominated the last 3 years appears to be present yet again this summer. What will it take to get rid of that thing?

 

If a Super Niño wavetrain can't shake it, I don't know what can. Something significant is behind the persistence of that feature.

It's a blob subsidiary.

[Phil]

Absolutely gorgeous.

 

Hope it works out that way.

Those poor folks in California, though.

[TT-SEA]

Those poor folks in California, though.

 

 

CA is always dry in the summer.   

[Phil]

Warming climate?

A warming climate, or the observed warming (theoretically) should have the opposite effect if anything, as the noted weakening of the equator-pole thermal gradient would promote a weakening of the zonal winds (thermal wind laws).

 

There was a significant shift in the Atlantic/IO Hadley cells back in early 2013 that preceded the swing to a +NAO background, but the question is why? I'm still trying to figure that out. Also, going forward, low solar/+BDC will be fighting to flip the NAO back, so it'll be fun to watch regardless.

[Front Ranger]

There was a lot of cold in that period but so much of it came during parts of the year that made it much less noteworthy than if it had happened in January.  I will say Dec 2008, Nov 2010, and Feb 2011 were pretty impressive.  The whole thing with the SEA records is just plain sad and irritating.  The observations there are pretty much meaningless now.  It makes the near record low earlier this month much more impressive though.

 

Yeah, it's a bummer when you can't accurately compare a station to the past. For geeks like us.

[Phil]

CA is always dry in the summer.

Failed attempt at humor, I guess.

[Front Ranger]

I think the ready-to-go list of 2008-13 cold feats is quite adorable. I can picture you traveling around the country going office to office offering PowerPoint presentations about this to anyone who will listen.

 

I just put that list together today. 

 

Simply examples of how different things are at a station that remains unaffected by UHI. Downplay it all you want, it's clearly a major factor for records and anomalies. SEA is the station people love to reference, but it's so skewed warm now it's fairly useless to compare to past records, especially when it comes to months/years. And it certainly doesn't reflect the region.

[Front Ranger]

384 GFS maps in June. This summer continues to set records for over-analyzation. 

[TT-SEA]

Simply examples of how different things are at a station that remains unaffected by UHI. Downplay it all you want, it's clearly a major factor for records and anomalies. SEA is the station people love to reference, but it's so skewed warm now it's fairly useless to compare to past records, especially when it comes to months/years.

 

 

Is your position that this a runway issue or that the general Seattle area has warmed?

[ShawniganLake]

The fine fuels dried quicky up here after last weeks rain. Someone thought it would be fun to start some brush fires along highway 1 in Victoria today.

http://www.cheknews.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/screenshot-mail.google.com-2016-06-27-12-28-55-768x527.jpg

[Jesse]

85 at SEA today... 87 at PDX.

 

Warmer up here and a little cooler down there.

 

Theme continues... the warm anomalies are much larger than the cool anomalies. Today was +10 at SEA. The last -10 day was November 29, 2015. The is the 6th day this month alone with a departure at or greater than +10. There have been 25 days at or greater than +10 in 2016 and zero days with a negative departure of -10 or greater. The largest negative departure of the year has been -7.

Whoah whoah whoah...are you trying to say it's been generally warm for a while now?

 

Seems suspect. Might need to look into this.

[ShawniganLake]

Whoah whoah whoah...are you trying to say it's been generally warm for a while now?

Seems suspect. Might need to look into this.

Not in Olympia. Shawnigan lake, also free from UHI, has seen back to back record warm years, however.

[Dan the Weatherman]

A warming climate, or the observed warming (theoretically) should have the opposite effect if anything, as the noted weakening of the equator-pole thermal gradient would promote a weakening of the zonal winds (thermal wind laws).

 

There was a significant shift in the Atlantic/IO Hadley cells back in early 2013 that preceded the swing to a +NAO background, but the question is why? I'm still trying to figure that out. Also, going forward, low solar/+BDC will be fighting to flip the NAO back, so it'll be fun to watch regardless.

 

I am assuming that the shift of the Atlantic / IO Hadley cells that occurred in early 2013 is what has been responsible for California's historic drought of the last 3-4 years. Do you see that pattern changing any time in the near future so that CA can finally have some more significant drought relief? This El Nino pattern didn't help out nearly as much as El Nino episodes in the past have.

[Jesse]

To think, many folks were celebrating the ease of negative departures when the 1981-2010's freshly kicked in.  Good times.  And good times ahead again in 2020!

 

If we go into a multi-year Nina, late 2016 through 2019 could mitigate the 2020 fun just a bit.

 

Although we will be loosing the comparatively chilly 1980s, which are probably dragging the 1981-2010 averages down a good deal. 2010s will likely not be a fair trade in that department.

[Phil]

I am assuming that the shift of the Atlantic / IO Hadley cells that occurred in early 2013 is what has been responsible for California's historic drought of the last 3-4 years. Do you see that pattern changing any time in the near future so that CA can finally have some more significant drought relief? This El Nino pattern didn't help out nearly as much as El Nino episodes in the past have.

If the IO/Atlantic circulation(s) are indeed responsible for altering the NAM/NAO, then yes they're likely a significant player (unfavorable wave absorption), though the weakening and poleward migration of the Hadley Cells across the globe (mostly since 1998) is detrimental in of itself, whatever the reason for it.

[Front Ranger]

You said SEA runs 1 degree warmer than OLM in terms of departures... attributed to UHI. So the story above is still very much the same.

 

By year, compared to long term average.

 

2006: SEA +1.3  OLM +.7  

2007: SEA +.1    OLM -.1

2008: SEA -.5     OLM -.9

2009: SEA +.3    OLM -.4

2010: SEA +.8    OLM +.4

2011: SEA -.9     OLM -1.3

2012: SEA +.4    OLM -.1

2013: SEA +1.9  OLM +.5

2014: SEA +3.7  OLM +2.0

2015: SEA +4.3  OLM +2.9

 

It was consistently within .5 or so difference until 2013. Since then it's been around +1.5.

[TT-SEA]

00Z WRF shows mid to upper 70s at SEA and low 80s at PDX on the 4th of July with sunshine.

 

Not bad... dare I say close to perfect?

[Jesse]

00Z WRF shows mid to upper 70s at SEA and low 80s at PDX on the 4th of July with sunshine.

 

Not bad... dare I say close to perfect?

 

A week away and the runs have been waffling a lot, as you know. Euro went full on troughy earlier today.

 

Good chance it ends up cooler than that.

[Front Ranger]

Is your position that this a runway issue or that the general Seattle area has warmed?

 

It's probably a combination of the added runway, more people/buildings/heat sinks than ever before in the area, and the past few years, a preponderance of dry, sunny patterns, which is when SEA really seems to maximize their relative warmth and put up the big anomalies.

 

During cloudy, troughy periods, the anomalies tend to run much closer.

[Dan the Weatherman]

If the IO/Atlantic circulation(s) are indeed responsible for altering the NAM/NAO, then yes they're likely a significant player (unfavorable wave absorption), though the weakening and poleward migration of the Hadley Cells across the globe (mostly since 1998) is detrimental in of itself, whatever the reason for it.

 

Do you foresee a change in the Hadley Cells in the near future, in which they contract equatorward after expanding poleward for the last 18 years? I can see how the poleward expansion has led to the subtropical ridge being further north in the winter than usual, leading to much drier conditions in at least the southern half of CA.

[TT-SEA]

By year, compared to long term average.

 

2006: SEA +1.3  OLM +.7  

2007: SEA +.1    OLM -.1

2008: SEA -.5     OLM -.9

2009: SEA +.3    OLM -.4

2010: SEA +.8    OLM +.4

2011: SEA -.9     OLM -1.3

2012: SEA +.4    OLM -.1

2013: SEA +1.9  OLM +.5

2014: SEA +3.7  OLM +2.0

2015: SEA +4.3  OLM +2.9

 

It was consistently with .5 or so difference until 2013. Since then it's been around +1.5.

 

 

It also seems that King County has been excessively wet since 2013 compared to the rest of the region.    I wonder if cloudier nights are in play here?   Just a thought.

[TT-SEA]

A week away and the runs have been waffling a lot, as you know. Euro went full on troughy earlier today.

 

Good chance it ends up cooler than that.

 

 

The 00Z GFS... the 00Z Canadian... and the 12Z ECMWF ensemble all agree.

 

Will the ECMWF operational cave in?

[Deweydog]

If we go into a multi-year Nina, late 2016 through 2019 could mitigate the 2020 fun just a bit.

 

Although we will be loosing the comparatively chilly 1980s, which are probably dragging the 1981-2010 averages down a good deal. 2010s will likely not be a fair trade in that department.

Could be rough/good times ahead for you anomaly hounds.

[Front Ranger]

It also seems that King County has been excessively wet since 2013 compared to the rest of the region.    I wonder if cloudier nights are in play here?   Just a thought.

 

Eh, wetter maybe during some patterns, but I very much doubt cloudiness has played much of a role. Especially over the course of 3 years. That's a long enough period of time that something like that would fade into background noise.

[TT-SEA]

Eh, wetter maybe during some patterns, but I very much doubt cloudiness has played much of a role. Especially over the course of 3 years. That's a long enough period of time that something like that would fade into background noise.

 

Probably a combination of things.   

[Front Ranger]

Probably a combination of things.   

 

Yeah, I mean like I said, I think a big factor over the past 3 years has been the actual weather patterns. Any time it's dry/warm now, SEA puts up huge anomalies.

[Jesse]

The 00Z GFS... the 00Z Canadian... and the 12Z ECMWF ensemble all agree.

 

Will the ECMWF operational cave in?

 

I'm sure you will be posting enough maps over the next 48 hours that no one will even have to check the models themselves to find out.