June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Perfect weather to end June with. Not too hot, just nice sunny warmth. 

 

 

Yep... 12Z ECMWF shows basically 10 days of 582DM heights.   That is what the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean showed as well.

[TT-SEA]

Retrogression of the ridge offshore.

 

What ridge?   The ridge is anchored over the intermountain west with a semi-permanent trough offshore.   

 

Summer!

 

12Z ECMWF shows a cooler pattern for the eastern US for most of the run as well.   Certainly not baking there yet.

 

Example:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gxGDCl.png

[Phil]

What ridge? The ridge is anchored over the intermountain west with a semi-permanent trough offshore.

 

Summer!

 

12Z ECMWF shows a cooler pattern for the eastern US for most of the run as well. Certainly not baking there yet.

 

Example:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gxGDCl.png

Progression from d10 to d15 on the EPS. What the heck are you looking at?

 

Deleted images.

 

[image.png][image.png]

[TT-SEA]

Progression from d10 to d15 on the EPS. Sorry dude.

 

image.pngimage.png

 

 

Looks like summer perfection to me.   Which of course it will be.  

[Phil]

Retrogression of the trough offshore.

Where'd you get this idea from? Every ensemble suite now has the offshore ridge returning in mid-July.

 

It's there on the GEFS, NAEFS, GGEMENS, and EPS.

[Deweydog]

Trough or not a trough?

 

Go!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Where'd you get this nonsense idea from? Every ensemble suite now has the offshore ridge returning in mid-July.

 

It's there on the GEFS, NAEFS, GGEMENS, and EPS.

OMG. You are so defensive about your predictions.

 

There is a trough over the NE Pacific and a ridge over the Intermountain West. Regardless of anomalies... that is where they are this coming week. Both of which are normal for summer so the anomalies look neutral for the most part in those areas.

 

Going to be a gorgeous July and August no matter how the pattern evolves.

[Phil]

Also worth noting that the low frequency forcing is in the IO w/ the propagatory forcing component (IS/MJO wave) entering the WPAC. This wave will propagate east, and orbit back to the IO/EHEM during mid/late July, and constructively interfere with the developing background forcing in the IO/EHEM.

 

At that point, we'll begin losing the intraseasonal forcing in respect to a much more dominant background forcing out of the typical Niña domain(s) in the EHEM.

[Phil]

OMG. You are so defensive about your predictions.

There is a trough over the NE Pacific and a ridge over the Intermountain West. Regardless of anomalies... that is where they are this coming week. Both of which are normal for summer so the anomalies look neutral for the most part in those areas.

Going to be a gorgeous July and August no matter how the pattern evolves.

Huh? How does my calling out your inaccurate statements classify as being "defensive"?

 

My initial post:

 

Strong retrogression signal on the 11-15 day 00z EPS.

To which you responded:

 

Retrogression of the trough offshore.

Which is demonstrably false.

 

Progression from d10 to d15 on the EPS. What the heck are you looking at?

Then, you say this (above) is me "defending my forecast"?

 

You're one of a kind.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Huh? How is my calling out inaccurate statements classify as being "defensive"?

 

 

 

To which you responded:

 

 

 

Which is demonstrably false.

 

 

Somehow thats me defending my forecast?

 

 

I was being sarcastic with my original response.   Which you jumped all over and got defensive about.   

[Phil]

I was being sarcastic with my original response.   Which you jumped all over and got defensive about.

 

Dude, no you weren't. Your follow-up posts are revealing.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, no you weren't. Your follow-up posts are revealing.

I was.

 

And you are nuts with this stuff.

[Phil]

Yeah, this is sarcasm alright.

 

Retrogression of the ridge offshore.

Your response:

 

What ridge? The ridge is anchored over the intermountain west with a semi-permanent trough offshore.

 

Summer!

 

12Z ECMWF shows a cooler pattern for the eastern US for most of the run as well. Certainly not baking there yet.

 

Example:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gxGDCl.png

[TT-SEA]

Right... that map clearly shows a trough over the NE Pacific and a ridge over the intermountain west. So retrogression would move each of them westward. But that is not how you define it.

 

I define troughs and ridges in relation to each other and not to the normal 500mb height for a specific area. You clearly define it based on the anomalies.

 

What you meant to say was there is retrogression of above normal heights offshore and it does in fact show that happening. I knew what you meant after our other debate... and was being sarcastic.

[Phil]

Huh?

[Front Ranger]

I think we're getting somewhere.

[TT-SEA]

I think we're getting somewhere.

 

 

Yeah... trying to bridge the gap but its not working with him.

[TT-SEA]

Relatively high dewpoints making today feel warmer and more pleasant. Dewpoint at 54 at SEA and 56 here. Residual moisture from all the rain no doubt.

 

Spectacular day. Clouds have almost completely cleared out.

[Phil]

New 12z EPS is stronger/more pronounced with the d11-15 retrogression. Doesn't get any more classic than that.

[Phil]

Yeah... trying to bridge the gap but its not working with him.

What you were saying doesn't make sense to me. Even in absolute terms (ignoring anomalies), there's a ridge offshore in the 11-15 day EPS.

 

This is the 12z ECMWF, absolute 500mb geopotential heights at d10 (before the process is fully underway). What would you call this?

 

[TT-SEA]

What you were saying doesn't make sense to me. Even in absolute terms (ignoring anomalies), there's a ridge offshore in the 11-15 day EPS.

This is the 12z ECMWF, absolute 500mb geopotential heights at d10 (before the process is fully underway). What would you call this?

image.gif

I was referring to the upcoming week and my map was from that period. I would call your map a ridge way offshore... a trough to our north... and a ridge over the Intermountain West.

[Phil]

I was referring to the upcoming week and my map was from that period. I would call your map a ridge way offshore... a trough to our north... and a ridge over the Intermountain West.

Okay, well I clearly referenced the *11-15 day* EPS in my post. So either you were trolling or didn't read carefully enough.

 

That building offshore ridge strengthens on the 12z EPS, forcing a downstream trough over the west.

[Bryant]

Also worth noting that the low frequency forcing is in the IO w/ the propagatory forcing component (IS/MJO wave) entering the WPAC. This wave will propagate east, and orbit back to the IO/EHEM during mid/late July, and constructively interfere with the developing background forcing in the IO/EHEM.

 

At that point, we'll begin losing the intraseasonal forcing in respect to a much more dominant background forcing out of the typical Niña domain(s) in the EHEM.

Also worth noting that RMM plots will be pretty useless during this timeframe

[Phil]

Also worth noting that RMM plots will be pretty useless during this timeframe

Yeah, really becoming noticeable now as background signal(s) are beginning to contaminate all common reference fields, including OLR, VP200/VP850, and even UWND200/UWND850.

[Deweydog]

Six months until Christmas!!!

[Deweydog]

My timing is dead balls on.

[Phil]

You are continuing it! Have been for hours.

As my mother always said, it takes two to have an argument.

[Front Ranger]

Sitting on the patio at a restaurant enjoying drinks and arguing with some crazy 20-year old in DC.

 

Done!

 

 

Likewise, watching a ballgame with friends/family while arguing with some crazy schizophrenic dude in North Bend, WA.

 

Good times.

 

I want to see these scenarios played out in a commercial. The ever-connected world we live in!

[MossMan]

Very nice day! Got all the weed eating done before the clouds broke up this morning so it wasn't too hot, then enjoyed hours of mowing in the warm sun. Topped off the day by washing the cars this evening and getting the jetski and fishing poles prepped for Chelan next week...Summer!!

[TT-SEA]

Very nice day! Got all the weed eating done before the clouds broke up this morning so it wasn't too hot, then enjoyed hours of mowing in the warm sun. Topped off the day by washing the cars this evening and getting the jetski and fishing poles prepped for Chelan next week...Summer!!

 

 

We are heading to Lake Couer D'Alene with the boat... rented a house on the lake over the 4th and beyond with extended family.    

[MossMan]

That sounds amazing! Where along the lake are you headed?

A quiet cabin right on the water just past Twenty Five Mile Creek State Park. No tv, Internet, cell service... Just fun in the sun with the family!

[MossMan]

We are heading to Lake Couer D'Alene with the boat... rented a house on the lake over the 4th and beyond with extended family.

Sounds awesome! That is one place I have yet to visit, hoping to make it there over the next couple of years. It's just a quick trip to Chelan for us...we will be back Friday night and then will be spending the Saturday-Monday timeframe at the family lake house on Goodwin for the 4th. Haven't missed a 4th there in 39yrs!

[Tyler Mode]

48.5 for a low this morning and it's full on sun.  What a great day!

[stuffradio]

Finally, the 06Z really shows the Summer pattern taking hold!

[TT-SEA]

Finally, the 06Z really shows the Summer pattern taking hold!

Don't look at the 12Z GFS. My early July troughy pattern is looking better.

[Deweydog]

Don't look at the 12Z GFS. My early July troughy pattern is looking better.

I'm pretty sure it's the atmosphere's trough, not yours.

[TT-SEA]

I'm pretty sure it's the atmosphere's trough, not yours.

 

 

I bought the naming rights.   

[Jesse]

Aside from a few hiccups, it kind of feels like the summer pattern set in in early April.

 

Summer does not feel hard won this year like it does many others.

[Jesse]

Very nice day! Got all the weed eating done before the clouds broke up this morning so it wasn't too hot, then enjoyed hours of mowing in the warm sun. Topped off the day by washing the cars this evening and getting the jetski and fishing poles prepped for Chelan next week...Summer!!

Are you planning to take a day trip up to Stehekin? Would highly recommend that. Beautiful ferry ride.

[Deweydog]

I bought the naming rights.

What have you come up with?