Deweydog Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 I completely disagree with this, but considering I've been pissed and miserable all day (broken AC with 80 degree dewpoints) I will digress for the time being.I know a good HVAC guy. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 I completely disagree with this, but considering I've been pissed and miserable all day (broken AC with 80 degree dewpoints) I will digress for the time being. You don't even know humidity! DPs have been the the oppressive low-mid 50s here all day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 18z op looks pretty warm next week compared to the ensembles. Probably a good bet to go with the Euro at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 You don't even know humidity! DPs have been the the oppressive low-mid 50s here all day.D**n son, better drink those fluids. Avoid direct sunlight if possible. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Tomorrow looks pretty warmish around Seattle as I mentioned earlier. Should be 75 for a high after a warm night. .Friday and Sunday look to be above normal..Neither Friday or Sunday will be above normal. SEA will probably be running around -3.5 or so by 7/15, give or take a degree.Both SEA & PDX came in with a zero departure today. No mid-70s today @ SEA, either. Again, the GFS WRF tends to run a few degrees too warm at the surface, and MOS always skews towards climo. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Both SEA & PDX came in with a zero departure today. No mid-70s today @ SEA, either.Again, the GFS WRF tends to run a few degrees too warm at the surface, and MOS always skews towards climo.Yeah... I said normal was a possibility. Certainly not much colder than normal as was implied. The next few days look about the same. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Yeah... I said normal was a possibility. Certainly not much colder than normal as was implied. The next few days look about the same.Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook. Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook. Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!!Tomorrow through Monday easily look cooler than today as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook.Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!!OK... it was normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Looks like a decent band of precip making its way onshore now. We may yet get some heavier rain this evening. Perhaps the heaviest in months for parts of the south island depending on how things line up. The atmosphere seems pretty saturated at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Tomorrow looks to be normally cool. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Tomorrow looks to be normally cool.Definitely colder departures farther south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Definitely colder departures farther south.Wild guess, SEA -1, OLM -2, EUG -3, PDX -3. You? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 PDO/EPAC dropping like a rock. Imagine what another two weeks of this pattern will do to SSTs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Some moderate to heavy rain about to hit the Portland metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Getting some real rain right now. REAL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 It's raining lightly here again. It was a beautiful afternoon after the rains this morning and overnight. I got .28" of rain today. I have 1.3 something inches of rain this month so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Y'all might get an influx of tourists next weekend if the 00z GEFS is correct. Everyone torching into oblivion except you guys. Remember, this is a day 10 ensemble mean. These are 2m temperatures: 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 I had a crazy thunderstorm this morning at 1-2am. At one point, within 2 minutes I had about 12 flashes. I had over 24 lightning flashes/strikes and lots of thunder this morning. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Y'all might get an influx of tourists next weekend if the 00z GEFS is correct. Everyone torching into oblivion except you guys. Remember, this is a day 10 ensemble mean. These are 2m temperatures: image.pngThat image looks like some guy breathing fire in the northwestern part of Canada and is punching the northwest right in the throat...or he is just giving us the middle finger, can't tell. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Ensembles continue to be a lot weaker than the op with any ridging next week. The ensembles look a bit more like the Euro, fwiw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 I could have a 60 degree high tomorrow. Definitely a hint of 1983 coming around. It is pretty difficult to have highs that cool in July in Klamath Falls. And possible cold-core convection tomorrow too? The coolest July days I've had since moving here were 69 degrees on both 07/18/2011 and 07/19/2011. The last 4 July's have passed with no days below 70 degrees. There was a 65 degree day on 07/02/2010, followed by multiple July's without 60's. The last July days below 65 were on 07/03/2000 (64) and 07/05/2000 (57!) (with a t'storm, probably cold core).Days 60 or below look to be very rare occurrences. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities. So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities. So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July. I had .75" in a half an hour and probably over 100 lightning strikes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities. So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July. I only measured about 0.4" of rain here last night and many surrounding areas received less, but the prolonged high humidity and lack of wind have helped more of the moisture seep into the ground and things are looking a little less parched today. If only we could tap into some of the stuff spinning offshore right now, a few heavy showers would make a big difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 I had .75" in a half an hour and probably over 100 lightning strikes. So now BC is outclassing us in thunderstorm season. Nice Now nothing is happening in areas prone to storms in July/August.... Like me. lol Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 So now BC is outclassing us in thunderstorm season. Nice Now nothing is happening in areas prone to storms in July/August.... Like me. lolMove to Moore, Oklahoma. You'll have your F5 in no time! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 We currently have most anomalous -IOD cell since at least 1996. Systematic circulation looking a lot more like something out of the 1980s or early/mid 1990s right now, only solar/HC state is nothing like those years. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 I had a crazy thunderstorm this morning at 1-2am. At one point, within 2 minutes I had about 12 flashes. I had over 24 lightning flashes/strikes and lots of thunder this morning. I was awake as well during that time. The rain was absolutely torrential and some of the heaviest I've ever seen, so I didn't really hear any thunder if there was any because the rain was so loud. Then around mid morning hours (9am) it was raining moderately but no where near as heavy as earlier. It turned out to be a really nice day today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 We currently have most anomalous -IOD cell since at least 1996. Systematic circulation looking a lot more like something out of the 1980s or early/mid 1990s right now, only solar/HC state is nothing like those years. It really looks as if we are undergoing a major regime shift. That can only be good news for the NW. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 Does anyone have a good link for lightning strikes? The one I have hasn't updated since June 26 for some reason. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 It really looks as if we are undergoing a major regime shift. That can only be good news for the NW.Yeah, major shift in global circulation ongoing, aside from what'd be considered typical of ENSO/AAM. Last time we observed something this significant was back in 1998, though this one is displaying opposite tendencies vs those of 1998. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 00z GFS just caved to the ECMWF for late next week. Now has that ULL moving into the PNW while the ridge retrogrades underneath. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 Holy death ridge on the 00z GFS. Good chance it's a product of erroneous feedback with the WAFs from the EPAC TCs, but still scary looking. You guys should escape either way, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 Holy death ridge on the 00z GFS. Good chance it's a product of erroneous feedback with the WAFs from the EPAC TCs, but still scary looking. You guys should escape either way, however. Holy crap! 6000 heights shown over the Midwest before day 10. That could be a deadly heatwave for them if it verifies. Meanwhile the NW continues mostly troughy. It's very noteworthy the Four Corners high which has been a mainstay during summer this century is a no show thus far. If the amplification continues over the GOA and Aleutians this fall and winter the NW could be in for some real fun. I had a feeling the backlash would be dramatic when the Nino collapsed, but this is crazy! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 Holy crap! 6000 heights shown over the Midwest before day 10. That could be a deadly heatwave for them if it verifies. Meanwhile the NW continues mostly troughy. It's very noteworthy the Four Corners high which has been a mainstay during summer this century is a no show thus far. If the amplification continues over the GOA and Aleutians this fall and winter the NW could be in for some real fun. I had a feeling the backlash would be dramatic when the Nino collapsed, but this is crazy!I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also. The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also. The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it. I clearly remember you said the Eastern half of the nation would fry this summer and the NW would be cool. You deserve credit. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 The NCEP GFS 850 anomaly is below normal for much of the PNW for most of the next 10 days still. SW BC and NW WA has -7F 850 T anomalies at times, parts of SE OR has around -10 to -12F anomalies at times. I wonder what July will finish off at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 I clearly remember you said the Eastern half of the nation would fry this summer and the NW would be cool. You deserve credit.Thanks. It's not over yet, but the progression going forward looks straight up classic to me. The hot summer idea (nationally) is panning out well, though, given the country just had its hottest June on record. Probably a good chance at the hottest JJA on record, also. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 10, 2016 Report Share Posted July 10, 2016 The NCEP GFS 850 anomaly is below normal for much of the PNW for most of the next 10 days still. SW BC and NW WA has -7F 850 T anomalies at times, parts of SE OR has around -10 to -12F anomalies at times. I wonder what July will finish off at. We should see much larger minus anoms at the surface as normals rise and observed temps drop a bit more. I'm guessing the min temps will really take a step down in the coming days as the pattern remains troughy, but turns drier. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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