August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Big time discrepancies in terms of what people are expecting for high temperatures this Thursday to Sunday. NWS Portland and KGW are 6-7 degrees apart. At this time I'd lean towards the KGW forecast.

 

 

NWS forecast looks orders of magnitude more reasonable/likely.

[Deweydog]

NWS forecast looks orders of magnitude more reasonable/likely.

Rod's whaky 104 on Friday is on the extreme side, but consecutive 100 degree days aren't out of the question. Parameters are fairly close to that of 9-2-88. A little cooler but with two week's worth of higher sun angle.

[GobBluth]

Not faulting KGW for going to their temps as some models would suggest it, but I think it looks way out of the realm of possibility as we get later into August. It's as unlikely as getting a sub 20 degree high in late February. Possible, but we're talking very unusual.

Referring to the 104 in particular..

[Jesse]

Rod's whaky 104 on Friday is on the extreme side, but consecutive 100 degree days aren't out of the question. Parameters are fairly close to that of 9-2-88. A little cooler but with two week's worth of higher sun angle.

Indeed.

[TT-SEA]

Well, it's looking like the overall pattern for the country will end up different this month than many of us were thinking.

Does this increase the chances of a below normal September? Stats coming soon...stay tuned.

Troughing and cool for 2 weeks in June and the first 10 days of July strongly argues for warm and dry for the second half of July, August, and the first half of September locally. With minor breaks like our lethargic ULL buddy last week.

 

It's just the way it usually works and sometimes trying to follow tropical forcing just leads you astray.

 

Again... this based on nothing more than studying LOCAL daily data for every summer since the 1800s.

[Phil]

The NPAC anticyclone is approximately fifteen degrees poleward vs climo in a developing La Niña. I think we can safely blame the -IOD circulation for the eastward convergent bias in the tropical Pacific/MT right now. Only one analog (1988) had this development in the tropics, and it's still a poor representation.

 

Forcing is resembling what'd you'd expect in an east based La Niña, with a strong Walker Cell/200mb divergent maximum sitting around 150E, which is a bit farther east versus the climo position. Will have to watch this going forward.

[Deweydog]

Indeed.

Ironically, that seven day forecast of Mark's from last week at this point would soothe the poo out of you.

[Phil]

That said, the detrended 500mb height anomalies for June/July still reflect what should be the dominant pattern when we finalize the June-September period.

 

Ridging offshore over the NPAC/Aleutians, downstream trough over the PNW.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/279643C3-EC13-4489-ACA3-980505B8C22D_zpsqoxr6tex.png

[Jesse]

Ironically, that seven day forecast of Mark's from last week at this point would soothe the poo out of you.

Yup, pretty stupid to bet against warmth these days.

 

The June 10th - August 10th stretch got me cocky.

[Jesse]

The NPAC anticyclone is approximately fifteen degrees poleward vs climo in a developing La Niña. I think we can safely blame the -IOD circulation for the eastward convergent bias in the tropical Pacific/MT right now. Only one analog (1988) had this development in the tropics, and it's still a poor representation.

 

Forcing is resembling what'd you'd expect in an east based La Niña, with a strong Walker Cell/200mb divergent maximum sitting around 150E, which is a bit farther east versus the climo position. Will have to watch this going forward.

I'm sure whatever happens it will mean more unexpected warmth for us.

[Phil]

As for tropical forcing, note what appears to be an (intraseasonal?) reversal from the June/July average, mostly confined to the NH component.

 

Wavenumber is reduced, forcing replacing subsidence in the WPAC, EPAC/ATL flipping.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/63C86064-A282-4B2C-BFD3-168521174875_zpsx30fgsxs.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9D5283A-3EAE-4E5A-946E-A1754D1969B5_zpshfj6bebr.png

[Deweydog]

Yup, pretty stupid to bet against warmth these days.

 

The June 10th - August 10th stretch got me cocky.

He even got all ballsy last night and went with 84 today. Seemed a little cool to me. 18c in mid August usually means 85 is pretty D**n likely.

[Phil]

I'm sure whatever happens it will mean more unexpected warmth for us.

Considering this is actually the warmest possible configuration of poleward WAF forcing(s) for your region, I'm not worried at all.

 

Every year is going to have unique burps and oddities. My guess is, when all is said and done, both the 500mb anomaly and 850mb temperature anomaly will run below average over the PNW, and most of the region (maybe not the I-5 corridor) will run slightly cooler than average for J/A/S as a whole.

[Phil]

Yup, pretty stupid to bet against warmth these days.

 

The June 10th - August 10th stretch got me cocky.

That'll teach ya, sucker.

 

Practice some humility before the next ice age arrives during the 8/30 - 9/30 period. Followed by a reincarnation of the younger dryas termination in October.

[Jesse]

That'll teach ya, sucker.

 

Practice some humility before the next ice age arrives during the 8/30 - 9/30 period. Followed by a reincarnation of the younger dryas termination in October.

I wish!

[Phil]

I wish!

We're due.

 

Those fleeing the ice sheets can find refuge within a 50 mile radius surrounding DC. In this bubble, temperatures will never fall below 90 degrees, it will never rain, and it will snow sulfur dioxide twice a year (on New Years and the 4th of July).

[Guest Winterdog]

I'm sure whatever happens it will mean more unexpected warmth for us.

Yeah, Joe Bastardi, the Farmers Almanac and I'm sure a host of other amateur and professional forecasters put the east coast in an icebox and the western third of the nation warmer than fresh cows milk this winter.

[Phil]

Yeah, Joe Bastardi, the Farmers Almanac and I'm sure a host of other amateur and professional forecasters put the east coast in an icebox and the western third of the nation warmer than fresh cows milk this winter.

This literally happens every year. I think a lot of folks have been lucky over the past several years, forecasting the same s**t for no apparent reason other than personal desire.

 

Just my two cents, maybe I'm wrong.

[Phil]

I will literally scream if we somehow revert to the default +PNA/+NAO/Hudson Bay death-vortex this winter. Such a stable, boring pattern to observe and forecast.

[Timmy Supercell]

Anyone else ready for autumn? I'm like really, really craving it this year.

 

Fall can come when I have gotten at least a dozen more thunderstorms.

[TT-SEA]

00z EPS is troughy well into the d11-15 range, and is beginning another ridge retrogression on d13.

 

Actually haven't seen the EPS this chilly in the PNW beyond d11 all summer, IIRC.

 

Models have not been doing too well.  

 

EPS is not always right... or even close to being right.     And its the best we have.

[Jesse]

Overachievement city out there!

[Phil]

Models have not been doing too well.

 

EPS is not always right... or even close to being right. And its the best we have.

I guess Jesse/Dewey et al were right.

 

We'll have to stop the stealthy, backhanded digs at one another if the bolded is to become reality, however.

 

Deal? Are we capable of that?

DEAL!

I smell bullshit!

Yeah, not gonna happen.

[Phil]

Fall can come when I have gotten at least a dozen more thunderstorms.

We have a spare bedroom.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=fgz&sid=KDCA&num=72

[Deweydog]

Overachievement city out there!

Today was about where you'd expect. Mid-upper 80's north, around 90 to the south. Tomorrow could be a smidge cooler.

 

Marine layer hell.

[TT-SEA]

I guess Jesse/Dewey et al were right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not directed at you... and that is the truth.

 

The main point to show model fallibility... even the EPS.   It was very wrong.    

 

I wish you could separate those things and not take it personally.   You did not create the models.

[Front Ranger]

Not faulting KGW for going to their temps as some models would suggest it, but I think it looks way out of the realm of possibility as we get later into August. It's as unlikely as getting a sub 20 degree high in late February. Possible, but we're talking very unusual.

Referring to the 104 in particular..

 

Not quite. More like sub-30. Even that has only happened once at PDX past 2/9.

 

104+ has happened this late twice, so...still incredibly ballsy to throw it in there 4 or 5 days out.

[Phil]

Not directed at you... and that is the truth.

 

The main point to show model fallibility... even the EPS. It was very wrong.

 

I wish you could separate those things and not take it personally. You did not create the models.

Alright. I still think you need to get WxBell..that way you'll have all the archives and city-specific forecasts.

 

Yeah, model skill scores are in the tank right now.

[Front Ranger]

Troughing and cool for 2 weeks in June and the first 10 days of July strongly argues for warm and dry for the second half of July, August, and the first half of September locally. With minor breaks like our lethargic ULL buddy last week.

 

It's just the way it usually works and sometimes trying to follow tropical forcing just leads you astray.

 

Again... this based on nothing more than studying LOCAL daily data for every summer since the 1800s.

 

You're pretty much describing the majority of summers.

 

This June was easily warmer than normal, not dominated by troughing more than most Junes. July was definitely troughier overall, despite sky high NICE indexes the second half of the month. Which is why the anomalies were cooler than June. The first 8 days of August were the coolest/troughiest in relation to normal of the entire summer to this point.

 

So whatever narrative you're trying to push doesn't add up as neatly as you seem to think.

[Phil]

1"+ of rain in 20 minutes isn't too shabby.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6184E6E0-1596-4F6F-91AD-838825113B73_zpsszflgofh.jpg

[Phil]

Daily PDO is in free fall:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9F226A98-A9B4-46C5-B466-4EA24F82A11E_zpsraneiukb.jpg

[TT-SEA]

You're pretty much describing the majority of summers.

 

This June was easily warmer than normal, not dominated by troughing more than most Junes. July was definitely troughier overall, despite sky high NICE indexes the second half of the month. Which is why the anomalies were cooler than June. The first 8 days of August were the coolest/troughiest in relation to normal of the entire summer to this point.

 

So whatever narrative you're trying to push doesn't add up as neatly as you seem to think.

 

 

Sort of does add up because you said I am describing most summers.   Its the way it works here.

 

This year we had troughing for the last half of May... half of June... and for basically the first half of July.     Many years are like that... and it usually results in dry, warm weather from the second half of July well into September with just a few breaks (like the ULL last week).    Its very evident in the local historical data.

 

On the other hand... years where it was warm for the vast majority of June and the first half of July tend to be cooler and wetter in August.

 

This year definitely fell into the first camp so its not too surprising to see August turning out so nice with the exception of a few days last week.  

[Front Ranger]

Ok, -ENSO years where August ended up warm (using OLM).

 

1950

1961

1967 (way warm!!!)

1971

1974

1983

1998

2005

 

8 years. How many had cooler than normal Septembers? 5 (2005, 1983, 1971, 1961, 1950). And several of those were very cool.

 

However, a 1967 or 1974 redux would cause Jesse to his pants in horror, and Tim to his pants in glee.

[Front Ranger]

Sort of does add up because you said I am describing most summers.   Its the way it works here.

 

This year we had troughing for the last half of May... half of June... and for basically the first half of July.     Many years are like that... and it usually results in dry, warm weather from the second half of July well into September with just a few breaks (like the ULL last week).    Its very evident in the local historical data.

 

On the other hand... years where it was warm for the vast majority of June and the first half of July tend to be cooler and wetter in August.

 

This year definitely fell into the first camp so its not too surprising to see August turning out so nice with the exception of a few days last week.  

 

I'm not sure you understand climatology. 

 

May/June tends to be wetter/cooler than July/August. Every year cooler, most often wetter. July 10 - August 20 is the driest and warmest time of the year, almost always. But not in relation to normal.

 

The exact patterns that occurred in May and June had little to no bearing on the patterns later in the summer. You're talking about a transition from spring to summer.

[Phil]

Ok, -ENSO years where August ended up warm (using OLM).

 

1950

1961

1967 (way warm!!!)

1971

1974

1983

1998

2005

 

8 years. How many had cooler than normal Septembers? 5 (2005, 1983, 1971, 1961, 1950). And several of those were very cool.

 

However, a 1967 or 1974 redux would cause Jesse to s**t his pants in horror, and Tim to s**t his pants in glee.

Interestingly, all of the warm September years (1998, 1974, 1967) were -QBO, and all of the cool years except one (1983, 1971, 1961, 1950) were +QBO.

 

Makes sense, given the topopausal temp/height variability under the seasonal ITCZ shifts toward/away from the cooler Equatorial (Niña) SSTAs.

[Front Ranger]

One place that has definitely been troughy/cool this summer is the Arctic. The ice was in terrible shape in late May, and many prognosticators were expecting a record ice melt. But thanks to a strong and persistent polar vortex most of the summer, a new record isn't even close to attainable.

 

Maybe Phil has some insight into what this could mean, if anything, going into this winter.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sure you understand climatology. 

 

May/June tends to be wetter/cooler than July/August. Every year cooler, most often wetter. July 10 - August 20 is the driest and warmest time of the year, almost always. But not in relation to normal.

 

The exact patterns that occurred in May and June had little to no bearing on the patterns later in the summer. You're talking about a transition from spring to summer.

Probably right.

 

And summer was not over in the middle of July it seems.

[Front Ranger]

Probably right.

 

And summer was not over in the middle of July it seems.

 

Indeed. 

 

Though if August ends up warmer than June (anomalies), that will come as a shocker to pretty much everyone on here. Myself and yourself included.

[TT-SEA]

Indeed. 

 

Though if August ends up warmer than June (anomalies), that will come as a shocker to pretty much everyone on here. Myself and yourself included.

 

Not a "shocker" to me.   Not what I went with in the contest but not really surprising either.    

[Front Ranger]

Not a "shocker" to me.   Not what I went with in the contest but not really surprising either.    

 

 

Sorry, you already disavowed your thoughts for the summer from May. The contest is on record.

 

Anyone here can claim it's not a "shocker". Meaningless. What we know for fact is that pretty much no one was predicting a very warm August. Which of course could still fall apart, if things got crazy the last week of the month.