August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Why is it that you struggle to grasp such simple concepts sometimes? You're obviously a smart guy, so I don't know if you're just shooting for a few gotchas, or what.

 

Phil, you're not making any sense.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA will end up with a -2 or -3 today.  Almost a miracle after all of the days that should have been below normal and weren't.

[Phil]

Summary: July temperature from 500mb all the way down to 975mb and below (just off the surface) averaged cooler than normal during July over NW OR. Most stations, including PDX, either ran negative departures for the month or featured a large number of negative departures during the month.

 

Astoria didn't manage even one daily negative departure. Not a single one. Again, highly unlikely to be accurate.

[snow_wizard]

It would be remiss to mention that Eugene tied a record low this month

 

Not totally shocking since we had a couple of cool air masses swing through this month.

[snow_wizard]

Some have questioned the -42 at Horse Ridge in SE Oregon in December 2013. 

 

Cold is always questioned these days.

[wx_statman]

Summary: July temperature from 500mb all the way down to 975mb and below (just off the surface) averaged cooler than normal during July over NW OR. Most stations, including PDX, either ran negative departures for the month or featured a large number of negative departures during the month.

 

Astoria didn't manage even one daily negative departure. Not a single one. Again, highly unlikely to be accurate.

 

No offense, but it doesn't sound like you know what you're talking about. At least with regards to questioning the accuracy of Astoria's sensor.

 

Let me ask you again, do you think the sensor at OTH is also flawed, since OTH only recorded one negative daily departure all month? 

[James Jones]

Summary: July temperature from 500mb all the way down to 975mb and below (just off the surface) averaged cooler than normal during July over NW OR. Most stations, including PDX, either ran negative departures for the month or featured a large number of negative departures during the month.

 

Astoria didn't manage even one daily negative departure. Not a single one. Again, highly unlikely to be accurate.

In all likelyhood, the Astoria readings are completely legitimate, and it's backed up by North Bend which recorded only one below normal day in July. Using PDX as a comparison is pointless, they're in a completely different climate zone. Instead of blaming the sensor, you should look at what meso or microscale meteorological phenomenon could be responsible for the July anomalies there. 

[Phil]

Phil, you're not making any sense.

You haven't made a lick of sense at any point in this discussion, no offense. I've seen nothing but handwaving and strawman analyses from you, at least in regards to this issue in particular.

[wx_statman]

Cold is always questioned these days.

 

 

You're killin' me. 

[wx_statman]

You haven't made a lick of sense at any point in this discussion, no offense. I've seen nothing but handwaving and strawman analyses from you, at least in regards to this issue in particular.

 

Ok then!

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely. Its my opinion based on what I see.

 

Do you see how an over-reliance on OLM can lead one astray in a month like July 2013? I'm just curious. 

 

If I was doing nothing besides analyzing one month, and I used only OLM to evaluate how it ranked compared to other Julys, sure, that would be a mistake.

 

But that's not what I've done.

[Phil]

No offense, but it doesn't sound like you know what you're talking about. At least with regards to questioning the accuracy of Astoria's sensor.

 

Let me ask you again, do you think the sensor at OTH is also flawed, since OTH only recorded one negative daily departure all month?

Whether it's the sensor, surrounding anthropogenic contamination(s), or something else entirely, I do not believe either of those temperature spreads given the upper air data.

 

It doesn't make physical sense to have days run +5 at the surface while running -8 merely 1000ft up, unless you're a believer in magic and/or witchcraft.

[wx_statman]

If I was doing nothing besides analyzing one month, and I used only OLM to evaluate how it ranked compared to other Julys, sure, that would be a mistake.

 

But that's not what I've done.

 

What have you done? And about what?

 

I'm just curious.

[Phil]

What have you done? And about what?

 

I'm just curious.

His argument is fairy straightforward, dude.

[wx_statman]

Whether it's the sensor, surrounding anthropogenic contamination(s), or something else entirely, I do not believe either of those temperature spreads given the upper air data.

 

It doesn't make physical sense to have days run +5 at the surface while running -8 merely 1000ft up, unless you're a believer in magic and/or witchcraft.

 

This should call for further research on your part, instead of blaming the sensors. 

[TT-SEA]

84 at PDX today... exactly what the ECMWF showed on Friday when I was told it was running 5 degrees too warm for every day there. It was clearly going to be wrong for yesterday which I agreed with... it did not recognize the strength of the marine push.

[Phil]

This should call for further research on your part, instead of blaming the sensors.

When were those sensors (in particular) last replaced? I can't find anything on them.

[wx_statman]

His argument is fairy straightforward, dude.

 

What was the argument?

[Front Ranger]

In all likelyhood, the Astoria readings are completely legitimate, and it's backed up by North Bend which recorded only one below normal day in July. Using PDX as a comparison is pointless, they're in a completely different climate zone. Instead of blaming the sensor, you should look at what meso or microscale meteorological phenomenon could be responsible for the July anomalies there. 

 

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. North Bend is quite a ways from Astoria, and areas in between on the coast actually ran below normal in July.

 

I think Phil needs to look further into it (more than 1 month) before assuming something is wrong with AST,

[Phil]

I agree that Astoria not even managing one daily negative departure is not accurate. Surface air temperatures were below normal for much of the PNW in July.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4NPMVbW.png

That's sort of a low-resolution graphic. There are higher resolution upper air and surface datasets on ESRL.

 

That said, yes, the AST temperature spread for July is laughable.

[Front Ranger]

What have you done? And about what?

 

I'm just curious.

 

 

I've already explained how I use OLM a couple times today. Not sure what you're trying to get at.

[Front Ranger]

84 at PDX today... exactly what the ECMWF showed on Friday when I was told it was running 5 degrees too warm for every day there. It was clearly going to be wrong for yesterday which I agreed with... it did not recognize the strength of the marine push.

 

I believe it was right some places, wrong others?

[James Jones]

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. North Bend is quite a ways from Astoria, and areas in between on the coast actually ran below normal in July.

 

I think Phil needs to look further into it (more than 1 month) before assuming something is wrong with AST,

Fair enough. But to instantly blame the sensor without first considering the possibility that some small scale meteorological phenomenon might be responsible is really silly.

[wx_statman]

I agree that Astoria not even managing one daily negative departure is not accurate. Surface air temperatures were below normal for much of the PNW in July.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4NPMVbW.png

 

Can we bring some science into this discussion?

 

I just checked the Long Beach COOP. Averaged +2.2F in July with only 4 days below average.

[wx_statman]

When were those sensors (in particular) last replaced? I can't find anything on them.

 

I have no idea. I'm not the one claiming they're broken.

[TT-SEA]

I believe it was right some places, wrong others?

Showed 72 at SEA. It was a tough day to get SEA right with the line of clouds right over the area. It showed the cloud placement correctly but also had to get opacity right as well.

[wx_statman]

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. North Bend is quite a ways from Astoria, and areas in between on the coast actually ran below normal in July.

 

I think Phil needs to look further into it (more than 1 month) before assuming something is wrong with AST,

 

I just checked Seaside (+1.5F) and Long Beach (+2.2F). Still not quite the +3.5F that Astoria posted. But the tendency in that area was definitely warmer than average during July, not cooler. 

[wx_statman]

 

I've already explained how I use OLM a couple times today. Not sure what you're trying to get at.

 

And in my opinion you bring up OLM way too often, even when its not really necessary. That was my only concern. One particular example was earlier this month when you tried to cast doubt on BLI's 68 degree overnight low by interjecting that OLM fell to 54. Those locations are in different parts of the state altogether.

[TT-SEA]

The 84 at PDX today was right on... guessing the 84 it showed for tomorrow is right as well. Maybe a couple degrees cool.

[Front Ranger]

I just checked Seaside (+1.5F) and Long Beach (+2.2F). Still not quite the +3.5F that Astoria posted. But the tendency in that area was definitely warmer than average during July, not cooler. 

 

Sure. AST was definitely at the high end.

 

 

[wx_statman]

So Phil, for July 2016 we have:

 

-Astoria had 0 days with daily negative departures

-North Bend had 1 day with daily negative departures

-Long Beach had 4 days with daily negative departures.

 

So to come full circle, maybe it was the pattern?

[Front Ranger]

And in my opinion you bring up OLM way too often, even when its not really necessary. That was my only concern. One particular example was earlier this month when you tried to cast doubt on BLI's 68 degree overnight low by interjecting that OLM fell to 54. Those locations are in different parts of the state altogether.

 

This was a case of you taking me seriously when I was not actually being serious. And sometimes I bring up OLM just for fun, kind of mocking my own "obsession" with it. 

[Front Ranger]

Fair enough. But to instantly blame the sensor without first considering the possibility that some small scale meteorological phenomenon might be responsible is really silly.

 

Yeah, that's why I said he needs to look further into it. Anyone can use a single month somewhere to make whatever point they're trying to make. But that's not super scientific.

[wx_statman]

This was a case of you taking me seriously when I was not actually being serious. And sometimes I bring up OLM just for fun, kind of mocking my own "obsession" with it. 

 

OK, I read ya. 

 

Just keep in mind that like alcohol and fatty foods, OLM is best in moderation. 

[Front Ranger]

OK, I read ya. 

 

Just keep in mind that like alcohol and fatty foods, OLM is best in moderation. 

 

I personally think OLM is more like a fresh vegetable/fruit. But this is all admittedly subjective. 

[Deweydog]

Anyone thinking the coastal "issues" weren't pattern-related don't understand coastal aspects of the warm season.

[wx_statman]

Sure. AST was definitely at the high end.

 

Jul16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I can't believe that blob around Yakima. I guarantee you its that big construction project they're doing this summer @ YKM.

[wx_statman]

Anyone thinking the coastal "issues" weren't pattern-related don't understand coastal aspects of the warm season.

 

You'll have to excuse our East Coast members. Some of them like to think they understand the nuances of PNW climate from 3,000 miles away. 

[Phil]

You'll have to excuse our East Coast members. Some of them like to think they understand the nuances of PNW climate from 3,000 miles away.

I know when the temperature anomaly @ 1100ft (at given observational site) is at/below -8F, and a sensor at the surface, at that given site, is reading an anomaly of +5F, there's a legitimate problem.

 

If you can't see that, I'm sorry.

[Phil]

Stations in OR during July. More than a few outliers, but the vast majority registered numerous daily negative departures. Only one station failed to record a negative daily departure.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9D54E2E6-9372-4AFD-BE5B-32394AE8E112_zpsk1uxnabc.jpeg