September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Looks like the modeling is trending towards the depiction of a strong vortex over the western Arctic and Alaska during week two.

 

Obviously, that favors warmth in the PNW (and most of the US, for that matter). Probably (hopefully) isn't something prolonged.

[Jesse]

Looks like the modeling is trending towards the depiction of a strong vortex over the western Arctic and Alaska during week two.

 

Obviously, that favors warmth in the PNW (and most of the US, for that matter). Probably (hopefully) isn't something prolonged.

WPAC forcing getting indigestion?

[TT-SEA]

Still a clear upward trend... but the ECMWF ensemble mean definitely shows more a trough for next weekend then previous runs.   Way different than the 00Z GFS in that time period.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[stuffradio]

Apparently yesterday NOAA released numbers stating the PDO was negative for August.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Apparently yesterday NOAA released numbers stating the PDO was negative for August.

 

 

Looks negative to me on the SSTA maps.

[Phil]

WPAC forcing getting indigestion?

Lol, I think it's more or less a property of seasonal circulatory changes and wave spacing, as noted by the flip in the polar circulation.

[Bryant]

The back and forths on this forum resemble fights with my ex girlfriends. Except on here there is no breaking up.

 

Hi Bryant feeling really good about your location this winter.

Oh hey there buddy! When we doing dinner with the wives?

[MossMan]

The back and forths on this forum resemble fights with my ex girlfriends. Except on here there is no breaking up.

 

Hi Bryant feeling really good about your location this winter.

It's more like when the entire disfunctional family meets up for Thanksgiving dinner...except everyday is thanksgiving here!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice to see the rain coming back into the picture for Monday night, before things slowly start warming up again. Hopefully it holds together.

[ShawniganLake]

45F here this morning.  Heat kicked on in the house for the first time this season. 

[Timmy Supercell]

37 for a low in Klamath Falls. For some reason I was +4 warmer than yesterday (33). Tomorrow AM should be the coldest out of last few though. Maybe 29-27 in spots. 

 

Just when we are close to needing a heater to work in our house, it is making a loud "rattling/shaking" noise. We need to get that checked out before it gets much colder and averages colder.

[Jesse]

12z GFS seems to slow down any meaningful warm up. Hope to see that trend continue.

[Phil]

The d10-15 CMC ensembles couldn't be more different than the GEFS for that timeframe. Polar opposites if anything..who'll come out on top?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/21707F06-3B0B-4B08-BB2A-5E54203C773F_zpslmhxiivy.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2C2C0F55-C3CC-45EE-B894-AEDE80EC65A7_zpsl52lyyxf.png

[Jesse]

The d10-15 CMC ensembles couldn't be more different than the GEFS for that timeframe. Polar opposites if anything..who'll come out on top?

 

Hopefully the Canadian in this case. Which one looks more like the EURO ensembles at that range?

[Phil]

Hopefully the Canadian in this case. Which one looks more like the EURO ensembles at that range?

Neither, the EPS ensemble has a ridge, but it's centered offshore, and it has a ridge over the Hudson Bay as opposed to the vortex the GEFS has there.

[Jesse]

Neither, the EPS ensemble has a ridge, but it's centered offshore, and it has a ridge over the Hudson Bay as opposed to the vortex the GEFS has there.

So basically they're all really different in their own way.

 

Well 2/3 would likely result in a cooler than average pattern for us. As Meat Loaf would say, that ain't bad.

[TT-SEA]

I am loving the 12Z ECMWF.    Just skims us with a system next Sunday and then quickly builds in a strong ridge.   The 8-10 day period looks very warm.  

 

Before that... Thursday - Saturday look really nice.    Saturday is quite warm as well.  

[Jesse]

The Euro continues to delay a major warm up. Days 9-10 are the only really warm looking days now, and that will likely continue to get pushed back.

 

The clipperesque system on Sunday looks much stronger on this run. Could be some chilly nights behind it.

[TT-SEA]

Comparing to the 12Z run yesterday... the weekend system is much weaker.

 

Comparing to the 00Z run... its a little stronger but Sunday is still sunny and in the low 70s which is the same as the 00Z run.   

 

Saturday is also into the 80s in Portland and in the upper 70s in Seattle. 

[TT-SEA]

And this is just lovely...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_TPnXv.png

[Jesse]

Today could end up being the coolest of this troughy period so far.

[MossMan]

Today could end up being the coolest of this troughy period so far.

Different story up here, sun is out air is warm...ahhh late summer is back!

[Deweydog]

Interesting stratus profile today. Not often you see it hanging on so vertically across the valley.

[Jesse]

Different story up here, sun is out air is warm...ahhh late summer is back!

It's meteorological fall now.

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles look a bit more robust with the weekend trough, and slower to build ridging afterward.

[stuffradio]

It's meteorological fall now.

It is still astronomical Summer though.

[Jesse]

It is still astronomical Summer though.

Good point, let's adhere to that since it's an astronomy forum.

[MossMan]

It's meteorological fall now.

Certainly doesn't feel like it up here so I am going to continue to call it summer for the time being. Plus can't we extend meteorological summer now with global warming and what not? Should go ahead and sync up with calendar fall now in my opinion!

[Guest Winterdog]

It's meteorological fall now.

Even more importantly it's psychological fall as well. This year needs to be different. Warm falls suck. I will likely go into a deep depression if we have to endure another fall and winter like the last two.

[Front Ranger]

Certainly doesn't feel like it up here so I am going to continue to call it summer for the time being. Plus can't we extend meteorological summer now with global warming and what not? Should go ahead and sync up with calendar fall now in my opinion!

It's a below average day across the region, with highs around 70 in your area. Hey, if that means summer to you...

[Timmy Supercell]

Even more importantly it's psychological fall as well. This year needs to be different. Warm falls suck. I will likely go into a deep depression if we have to endure another fall and winter like the last two.

 

Even normal winters (regarding snowfall) aren't exciting for the lowlands. We're a bit pampered with events from before the drought. 

 

And some of the lowlands HAD snow (at least in Oregon) last winter. Looks like you're going to be depressed this year, pretty good chance

[MossMan]

It's a below average day across the region, with highs around 70 in your area. Hey, if that means summer to you...

Certainly better than the last two craptastic days!! Back to shorts and short sleeved shirts! Summer!

[wx_statman]

So basically they're all really different in their own way.

 

Well 2/3 would likely result in a cooler than average pattern for us. As Meat Loaf would say, that ain't bad.

 

He also said he would do anything for both barotropic and baroclinic local Eliassen-Palm flux components to decelerate westerlies and thus help the transient eddies maintain a blocking episode during a wintertime Arctic outbreak pattern.....but he won't do that? 

[Brennan]

Oh hey there buddy! When we doing dinner with the wives?

Is your house ready?!! I want to see the place. You host, we'll bring AND COOK the food

[Jesse]

Certainly doesn't feel like it up here so I am going to continue to call it summer for the time being. Plus can't we extend meteorological summer now with global warming and what not? Should go ahead and sync up with calendar fall now in my opinion!

Stop trying to be annoying.

[Brennan]

Stop trying to be annoying.

Dude. It feels like summer during the day when the sun is out. There is a hint of fall in the mornings and at night, and the trees are starting to turn. Psychologically we are ready for fall and we want fall so we make it feel more like fall than it really does... It's still summer. And next week it's going to get hot. Might be for a day, might be for a few days. Stop being annoying. We went for a walk today. I started with a sweatshirt because i was bracing for it to feel like fall, and it kind of even looked like it might be chilly. We got out in the sun and it felt hot. Ended up shirtless. Gorgeous out today.... Air feels kinda fallish... I guess.

[Deweydog]

Things are gonna get heated.

 

And it's going to warm up.

[Brennan]

Always enjoyed reading your posts dewey. Always make me laugh. Some of my greatest solo laugh attacks have occurred on this forum when reading your stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Even more importantly it's psychological fall as well. This year needs to be different. Warm falls suck. I will likely go into a deep depression if we have to endure another fall and winter like the last two.

 

Brace yourself.

 

And if you are getting depressed about sunshine and 70s in late September and October then the weather is not your biggest problem.  

[TT-SEA]

This looks really nice... a great compliment to the current cool pattern and the recent rain.   Nice variety.   Ready for some more warm weather now.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png