September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area.

[FroYoBro]

And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area.

 

Should be a really nice day up your way. Right? 

[ShawniganLake]

And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area.

It was trending that way this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Should be a really nice day up your way. Right? 

 

 

I am just saying its a strange shift on the day of the event.    Nothing more.  

 

Although now that I checked... the WRF does show sun tomorrow afternoon from Seattle to Bellingham...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.24.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run.

Much less clip in that clipper on this run. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z WRF last night for this current system...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016090500/images_d3/wa_pcp24.48.0000.gif

 

 

00Z WRF from tonight...  I guess it did not shift south but rather the north side is drier.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Much less clip in that clipper on this run. 

 

 

No doubt.

[ShawniganLake]

No doubt.

Canadian is further west with the weekend system 

[TT-SEA]

Canadian is further west with the weekend system 

 

 

Not by much.  

[ShawniganLake]

Not by much.  

Quite a bit different than its 12Z

[Phil]

Not by much.

Trough. Wet. Cloudy. Depressing.

 

Brrrrr.

[TT-SEA]

Trough. Wet. Cloudy. Depressing.

 

Brrrrr.

 

 

 

If I mention ridging then I am just wishcasting because its never nice here and its never warm.  

 

If I mention troughing or model trends either way... then I am terrified of troughing.

 

When in fact... I am just discussing a trend one way or another.

 

This morning the ECMWF came in much more robust with the weekend trough.   I reported it.   No big deal.  I reported on the change the other way on the 00Z GFS in the same way.     

 

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit stronger the shortwave next weekend... following the 12Z GFS.

 

 

00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run.

 

[Phil]

I was just messing around. Geesh, dude.

[TT-SEA]

I was just messing around. Geesh, dude.

 

 

No... its annoying.   Just discuss the models.     

 

For the record... I like variety like most of us here.     

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS.  This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z WRF last night for this current system...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016090500/images_d3/wa_pcp24.48.0000.gif

 

 

00Z WRF from tonight...  I guess it did not shift south but rather the north side is drier.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif

 

It's weird to see such a drastic change within the 24 hour forecast mark, figures it would be on the dry side. That said, while the rainfall has been pretty underwhelming here so far the 0z WRF from tonight went way to dry even in the first 6 hours. There's already been around 0.09"+ across virtually all of Southern Vancouver Island, and looking at the radar there's still a steady flow of showers coming in, so totals will probably come in over 0.1" in a large area shown to receive 0.01" or less; not very good accuracy for a forecast resolution within 6-12 hours.

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS.  This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this.

 

You don't discuss the Canadian model much.   Certainly not last night when the GFS and Canadian were opposite of tonight.  

[Bryant]

You don't discuss the Canadian model much. Certainly not last night when the GFS and Canadian were opposite of tonight.

You do the same thing

 

Just discuss the models

[TT-SEA]

You do the same thing

Just discuss the models

Trying to discuss the models. I point out both sides. You should point these things out to Jim once in awhile too.

[Bryant]

Trying to discuss the models. I point out both sides. You should point these things out to Jim once in awhile too.

Jim isn't an a**

[Jesse]

No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS. This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this.

00z GFS ensembles look better with that feature too.

[TT-SEA]

Jim isn't an a**

Being objective is the goal.  

[Phil]

No... its annoying. Just discuss the models.

 

For the record... I like variety like most of us here.

Okiedokie, Dr. Drizzle.

[Jesse]

I think we can all agree that Tim is probably the most objective poster here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif

[Bryant]

It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif

Would be quite an experience!

[ShawniganLake]

It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif

That is the weekend clipper system 

[Jesse]

That is the weekend clipper system

Well it's about to get invigorated.

[Brennan]

Maybe we'll get one of those coming into our south in January this year #1880

[Deweydog]

Clippermania!!!

[Jesse]

00z Euro looks great through day 7. Very robust with the weekend clipper.

 

Beyond that it's showing kind of a strange pattern. Unusually broad ridge. Very warm at face value.

[TT-SEA]

EPS ensemble mean is very warm through the end of the run after Sunday.

[Jesse]

06z is much stronger with the clipper than the 00z.

 

Looks like the GFS finally is catching up.

 

Also, a lot of ensemble members on the 06z indicate the potential of a quick crash of any ridge that develops, days 10-12.

[Jesse]

Cool, wet and even a little breezy this morning. Lovely. Definitely feels like fall.

[Tyler Mode]

Feels like a typical post warm front winter morning out there.  Mild at 54 degrees, but wet.

Three years ago today I measured 1.44" of rain.

[Jesse]

Feels like a typical post warm front winter morning out there. Mild at 54 degrees, but wet.

 

54 with rain is pretty cool this time of year.

[MossMan]

Nice morning up here! Glad the system mostly stayed south.

[Prairiedog]

Its been a relatively active hurricane season in the Eastern Pac.  Does that ever have a bearing on resetting/setting our weather patterns?  I don't know if there are any trends or stats to support anything of any consequence but just wondering if that could set the table in anyway for Oct. which some feel is important for what may be down the road. 

[luminen]

It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif

 

Prince Rupert is progged for 2-3" of rain Friday-Saturday.