snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I was right about the MOS being too low today. Goes to show you can't always trust that stuff. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last! I don't think that was the first. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I was right about the MOS being too low today. Goes to show you can't always trust that stuff. Right... like on Thursday night the GFS MOS showed 57 for SEA on Friday and it ended up at 63 that day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 No 90 for PDX. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 No 90 for PDX.89, so close enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 89, so close enough. Amazing how SEA under performed with this. Not even close to 80 today. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last! He's famous for his gloomy outlooks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 89, so close enough. Weather is not hand grenades or horse shoes. Though sometimes it can be explosive and weenies get lucky. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 No 90 for PDX.Sad day for Dewey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 He's famous for his gloomy outlooks.Dear Lord!... (hint: it was sarcasm) but it feels good to be famous and the first to post "winter cancel"... today IS a good day! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 So Amazon lost my package and the guy started laughing on the phone lol 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Amazing how SEA under performed with this. Not even close to 80 today. 82 here. No model showed SEA getting to 80 with this little ridge. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 82 here. No model showed SEA getting to 80 with this little ridge.Except the Tim model. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Except the Tim model. I never forecasted 80 at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Sad day for Dewey.Almost. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Almost. You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt. If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The first "Winter Cancel" of the season...and definitely won't be the last!LOL! sooo true... and It won't be the last of some very wild speculation/wishcasts of "epicness" too (10 days out). Get your popcorn folks it is gonna be a fun ride. --- I can't wait for Gorton the Fisherman to return!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Still windstorm potential on Sunday. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_150_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The 0z GFS is pretty interesting. It keeps the block together for a longer time which drives the heights below 546 with a surface low tracking just south of Seattle. In the winter that would be a major snow event for Seattle, especially the backwash behind the low. Nice to see patterns like that showing up so early...assuming it happens. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt. If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place.I went for a 90-free September. Another degree and my credibility around here would have been shattered into a zillion pieces. 89 was a nice compromise. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 LOL! sooo true... and It won't be the last of some very wild speculation/wishcasts of "epicness" too (10 days out). Get your popcorn folks it is gonna be a fun ride. --- I can't wait for Gorton the Fisherman to return!! I hope you won't be a Debbie Downer this winter. I think we will have some fun times. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Still windstorm potential on Sunday. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_150_precip_p03.gifWRF will be interesting. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 You are personally responsible for the warming climate, Matt. If only you cherished cold all the time the world would be a better place. Wrong. The Chinese are responsible for global warming. And the Mexicans. And the CFS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I hope you won't be a Debbie Downer this winter. I think we will have some fun times. Who cares if he wants to be? When you decide to be Debbie Downer you go into full meltdown mode. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Who cares if he wants to be? When you decide to be Debbie Downer you go into full meltdown mode. Very true. He just has a way of popping people's hopes like a pin poking a balloon. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Probably safe to toss this GFS run beyond d8. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The new GFS keeps cool weather almost a third of the way through October now. Recent model trends have been to keep adding on to the parade of NW troughs / GOA ridges. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 The new GFS keeps cool weather almost a third of the way through October now. Recent model trends have been to keep adding on to the parade of NW troughs / GOA ridges.You looking at the same run I am? I see a GOA trough/+EPO, with ridging dominating 90% of the NH (probably some sort of feedback error). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Either Tim is jealous of Jim or he is just an a$$. I can't tell. Another month or so and I think I'll have it locked down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Either Tim is jealous of Jim or he is just an a$$. I can't tell. Another month or so and I think I'll have it locked down.I think I might have your answer. It's taken me about 10 years of close, around the clock observations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Very true. He just has a way of popping people's hopes like a pin poking a balloon. Don't let it bother you. Not everyone has to be on the fantasy train. And if something actually happens then everyone is on board anyways. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind. It feels like that is how its going to evolve. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Dear Lord!... (hint: it was sarcasm) but it feels good to be famous and the first to post "winter cancel"... today IS a good day! That's the thing, I'm telling you already I posted it earlier this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 I think I might have your answer. It's taken me about 10 years of close, around the clock observations.It's obviously everyone else. He is actually an unfairly maligned voice of reason who is continually victimized by the brutish cold mafia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 It's obviously everyone else. He is actually an unfairly maligned voice of reason who is continually victimized by the brutish cold mafia. There is a cold mafia on here for sure. You are just much more mean-spirited than Jim. Jim and I have been getting along quite well actually. Sorry if that is boring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 It feels like that is how its going to evolve.This is based off of what? Your hopes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 You looking at the same run I am? I see a GOA trough/+EPO, with ridging dominating 90% of the NH (probably some sort of feedback error). It looks good for the NW until Oct 8 or 9. Certainly not as nice as week one though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 27, 2016 Report Share Posted September 27, 2016 Jim and I have been getting along quite well actually. Sorry if that is boring.Quite well huh? In the form of you replying to everyone of his posts with a cold hearted jab type of "quite well"? Your idea of a healthy relationship seems a bit off 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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