September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Is Jamaica really taking this as a Cat 5?

[Trainwreck]

Don't miss the point Tim, your infatuation with Jimmy gets the best of you. To each his own.

[Phil]

Is Jamaica really taking this as a Cat 5?

I think so..up to 160mph and still strengthening at a rapid pace.

 

Might make a second landfall on the east coast somewhere.

[BLI snowman]

Is Jamaica really taking this as a Cat 5?

 

Definitely possible, wouldn't necessarily bet on it. It takes a lot of things going right for a storm to maintain that kind of intensity for long, especially once it starts to interact with land and/or drier air.

 

Either way, model trends show it being a big threat for basically every landmass between Jamaica and New England.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Don't miss the point Tim, your infatuation with Jimmy gets the best of you. To each his own.

 

I have responded to maybe 5% of Jim's post this month.    Maybe less.    And when I have, its always been cordial.    But it does not seem to matter.    

 

I am making an effort.   And I have always liked Jim.   Someone else on here is really the only one making it personal.

 

Jim and I have had no negative interactions this month other than concerning Trump.  

[Phil]

Actually, there appears to be some asymmetry in Matthew's core of late..might be ready to cycle a bit.

[TT-SEA]

Actually, there appears to be some asymmetry in Matthew's core of late..might be ready to cycle a bit.

 

 

Conditions still favorable to maintain that strength??

[Phil]

Conditions still favorable to maintain that strength??

There's been some notable southwesterly shear impacting the storm for 36hrs. So far the dude has been been impervious to it, for whatever reason. Bombed over the LLC on the first attempt.

[BLI snowman]

Actually, there appears to be some asymmetry in Matthew's core of late..might be ready to cycle a bit.

 

Eyewall replacements are pretty common in higher end storms after a period of rapid intensification. Probably will be one within 24 hours.

[Phil]

Eyewall replacements are pretty common in higher end storms after a period of rapid intensification. Probably will be one within 24 hours.

Definitely. Might actually be bad timing for Jamaica if it completes a full ERC before landfall.

 

Also, that blob of convection just to the east of the hurricane is somewhat strange looking, possibly a consequence of the upper level shear? Can't imagine how strong this storm would be if shear was reduced.

[Phil]

Apparently Matthew is the lowest latitude category 5 in recorded history, just ahead of Ivan (2005).

[TT-SEA]

WRF is much drier for tomorrow for the Seattle area.

 

Even looks like it will be sunny for a good part of the afternoon up here.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.21.0000.gif

[Trainwreck]

I have responded to maybe 5% of Jim's post this month. Maybe less. And when I have, its always been cordial. But it does not seem to matter.

 

I am making an effort. And I have always liked Jim. Someone else on here is really the only one making it personal.

 

 

 

Jim and I have had no negative interactions this month other than concerning Trump.

 

Nothing negative? Just contradictive then I guess. He posts a negative anomaly, you post a positive anomaly. It's really strange. I guess it all evens out lol.

[Trainwreck]

WRF is much drier for tomorrow for the Seattle area.

 

Even looks like it will be sunny for a good part of the afternoon up here.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.21.0000.gif

Neato

[TT-SEA]

Nothing negative? Just contradictive then I guess. He posts a negative anomaly, you post a positive anomaly. It's really strange. I guess it all evens out lol.

 

Nothing inaccurate.   And only a small percentage.  

[TT-SEA]

Neato

 

Sort of nice for a Saturday. 

 

Sunday looks fairly sunny as well.    

 

We appreciate weekend sun more than you probably.  

[James Jones]

That would sure be something for the East Coast if the 00Z verified.

[Phil]

That would sure be something for the East Coast if the 00Z verified.

Literally tracks right up the Gulf Stream. I'll start getting nervous if these solutions continue through Monday.

[GHweatherChris]

I have responded to maybe 5% of Jim's post this month. Maybe less. And when I have, its always been cordial. But it does not seem to matter.

 

I am making an effort. And I have always liked Jim. Someone else on here is really the only one making it personal.

 

Jim and I have had no negative interactions this month other than concerning Trump.

Only 5%?

 

Prove it. But, you can't include his posts outside this topic.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive action showing up on the 0z for week two.  850s below 5C most of the time.

[snow_wizard]

You can clearly see Matthew is currently pulling that other blob of convection into itself now.  Very impressive looking storm!

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_east+12

[TT-SEA]

Only 5%?

 

Prove it. But, you can't include his posts outside this topic.

 

In this topic.    Not spending time doing that tonight.   I know its a small percentage.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF has singled out Monday as being a really cool day.  In general every day looks pretty cool at least through Wednesday.

[GHweatherChris]

In this topic. Not spending time doing that tonight. I know its a small percentage.

Lol

[TT-SEA]

Lol

 

 

Went through the first few pages of the month...  Jim had numerous posts to start the month with no response from me.   Then we had a short conversation on page 3 so the average went up a little.     Still... about 5 responses to his first 25 posts this month.   But conversations are a little different.  

 

Last Saturday he had about 100 posts and I don't think I replied to any of them.  

 

And its all been completely friendly anyways.

[wx_statman]

Interesting.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if 1972-73 and 1978-79 also accomplished that feat, in localized areas.

 

I'm not 100% sure but 1972-73 is a possibility. I just checked some outlying stations and Monroe did hit 7F on 1/8/1973. I'm less sure about 1978-79. I'm not aware of any exceedingly cold minimums in the late Jan/early Feb airmass, but I haven't done a comprehensive search. I consider everything from late December into the second week of January to be part of the same long wave pattern. 

[wx_statman]

I believe that because it dropped to 8 here.  The really interesting thing is it was that cold by 10pm.  If it had remained clear it would have easily dropped to near zero by morning

 

I remember tracking temps in the Seattle metro that evening. Lots of upper 0's/low 10's before midnight. Enumclaw shows 3F lows for both the 23rd and 24th, implying an evening minimum on the 23rd since the previous AM wasn't anywhere near that cold regionally. 

[BLI snowman]

I'm not 100% sure but 1972-73 is a possibility. I just checked some outlying stations and Monroe did hit 7F on 1/8/1973. I'm less sure about 1978-79. I'm not aware of any exceedingly cold minimums in the late Jan/early Feb airmass, but I haven't done a comprehensive search. I consider everything from late December into the second week of January to be part of the same long wave pattern. 

 

Vancouver got to 8 with that one, I would wager some parts of SW WA were a bit colder. Forest Grove hit 7.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's no hurricane but it's starting to look like things could be pretty stormy next Thursday/Friday, then things go ballistic in the fantasy range. Looks pretty showery tomorrow.

[wx_statman]

Vancouver got to 8 with that one, I would wager some parts of SW WA were a bit colder. Forest Grove hit 7.

 

Interesting. I've always been fascinated by how cold So. California got with that cold wave (i.e. -25F at Big Bear Lake) and I knew PDX hit 16F, but I never researched it any further. That's why I usually preface information when I'm not 100% with "as far as I'm aware." 

 

I agree that most likely, and especially with a few well placed RAWS sites (a network that didn't exist before 1985), either January 1973 or late Jan/early Feb 1979 could have pulled off sub-5F readings. 

[GHweatherChris]

Went through the first few pages of the month... Jim had numerous posts to start the month with no response from me. Then we had a short conversation on page 3 so the average went up a little. Still... about 5 responses to his first 25 posts this month. But conversations are a little different.

 

Last Saturday he had about 100 posts and I don't think I replied to any of them.

 

And its all been completely friendly anyways.

The fact that you actually did this is disturbing.

[TT-SEA]

The fact that you actually did this is disturbing.

 

 

Took all of 20 seconds to scan the first few pages... I was curious myself.     

[MossMan]

Moderate rain at Long Beach! At least last night was dry while we unloaded the truck!

[TT-SEA]

Moderate rain at Long Beach! At least last night was dry while we unloaded the truck!

 

 

Radar does not look too good for you down there.

 

Beautiful morning up here... partly sunny and dry.  

[MossMan]

Radar does not look too good for you down there.

 

Beautiful morning up here... partly sunny and dry.

I'm hoping we can get into more of a showery/T-storm type day later on. We are definitely in the moderate/heavy rain and wind right now!

[Jesse]

PDX ended up with their coldest September since 2007, with an average temp of 63.3 (-1.3).

[Front Ranger]

Coolest consecutive Septembers since 2001-02 for the region.

[Jesse]

Coolest consecutive Septembers since 2001-02 for the region.

It was average at SEA.

 

It was average at SEA.

 

It was average at SEA.

 

It was average at SEA.

 

It was average at SEA.

 

It was average at SEA.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It was average at SEA.

[Deweydog]

Coolest consecutive Septembers since 2001-02 for the region.

 

 

Never forget!!!