September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The 0z ensemble now shows 850s below the normal line through the first 9 days of October.

[stuffradio]

I would take my chances with a 2010-11 type winter again.  It was decent and could have easily ended up even better.

Nov 2010 had some cold snaps and snow and Jan 2011 had some cold snaps and snow too. December was not good though. Feb 2011 had cold and snow too.

[James Jones]

Phil - I was going back to review 2010-11 and look at the November event in the archives and got side tracked by your "ramblings" thread.

 

You were saying that global cooling started in 2012 and that arctic events would become much more common starting that winter will a major crash in 2016-17.   

 

It seems so far away at the time... but we have almost arrived at 2017.     And to your credit... you are still talking about the same thing.

 

Some things you said back then:

 

- Winter 2012-13 will show no mercy, and should make the past 20+ winters look tame everywhere...but there is a question on when it sets in. Could be one of those warm fall-like patterns from NOV thru the New Year, before icy hell unloads suddenly and doesn't let go for several months.

 

-The winters towards the middle/end of this decade and beyond are the ones to fear nationwide, though. 

 

-We will not immediately plunge 5-10 degrees centigrade into an ice age climate, but a notable decadal-scale cooling should initiate during winter 2012-13, with the rate increasing sometime around 2017 

 

Considering global temps have risen significantly since 2011, I think it's safe to say there's no danger whatsoever of an impending ice age. I doubt we even get back to pre-2014 level global temps in our lifetimes, barring a Pinatubo (or bigger) type eruption or a brief excursion below that level with a very strong Nina. 

[snow_wizard]

Nov 2010 had some cold snaps and snow and Jan 2011 had some cold snaps and snow too. December was not good though. Feb 2011 had cold and snow too.

 

As I recall there was a near miss on a MAJOR snow event in January that winter.  Nov 2010 had the coldest temps I have recorded this century, and the Feb event dropped 30 inches of snow near Mount Vernon.  If the January event had verified it would have been really good.

[snow_wizard]

Considering global temps have risen significantly since 2011, I think it's safe to say there's no danger whatsoever of an impending ice age. I doubt we even get back to pre-2014 level global temps in our lifetimes, barring a Pinatubo (or bigger) type eruption or a brief excursion below that level with a very strong Nina. 

 

You are forgetting about the solar aspect.  That is one variable we have yet to see if it will cause cooling.  A lot of people think the extreme minimum coming up will have a strong cooling effect.

 

You also have the fact there is normally a strong backlash after very strong El Ninos.  The mid 1980s were very cold after the 1982 super Nino and there was also a sharp drop after the 1997-98 Nino.  In short I would bet a decent sum you are wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

As I recall there was a near miss on a MAJOR snow event in January that winter. Nov 2010 had the coldest temps I have recorded this century, and the Feb event dropped 30 inches of snow near Mount Vernon. If the January event had verified it would have been really good.

44" here that winter, 145% of normal. If that January event had of verified it would have been a very solid winter here.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z ensemble now shows 850s below the normal line through the first 9 days of October.

 

 

Nothing too chilly though.... but amazing that normal is 5C by the end of the run.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

You are forgetting about the solar aspect.  That is one variable we have yet to see if it will cause cooling.  A lot of people think the extreme minimum coming up will have a strong cooling effect.

 

You also have the fact there is normally a strong backlash after very strong El Ninos.  The mid 1980s were very cold after the 1982 super Nino and there was also a sharp drop after the 1997-98 Nino.  In short I would bet a decent sum you are wrong.

 

 

 

Mid 80s was timed well with volcanic assistance.   

[Phil]

Phil - I was going back to review 2010-11 and look at the November event in the archives and got side tracked by your "ramblings" thread.

 

You were saying that global cooling started in 2012 and that arctic events would become much more common starting that winter will a major crash in 2016-17.

 

It seems so far away at the time... but we have almost arrived at 2017. And to your credit... you are still talking about the same thing.

I'm pretty sure I was high when I wrote that. That said, I'm still generally going with the idea of a general hemispheric cooling beginning in 2017, +/- 1yr.

[BLI snowman]

Considering global temps have risen significantly since 2011, I think it's safe to say there's no danger whatsoever of an impending ice age. I doubt we even get back to pre-2014 level global temps in our lifetimes, barring a Pinatubo (or bigger) type eruption or a brief excursion below that level with a very strong Nina. 

 

I think that's pretty silly. Regardless of the next century's trend, it's not going to be a runaway process and we'll see some peaks and valleys and ENSO of course plays a big part in that. We will certainly see another major La Nina event in the future that will significantly cool things for a year or two.

 

It's easy to forget that the 20th century warming saw a complete halt and in some multi-year instances a reversal of course between 1950 and 1980. It's likely that that same scenario will play out again to some extent at some point during the 21st century. It wouldn't take much to get to 2012 level temperatures again in our lifetimes.

[stuffradio]

It's 46 here. That's much cooler already than any other time this month (that I know of)

[James Jones]

There hasn't been any trend in lower tropospheric temperatures since 2001, so I'm not sure what you're talking about here.

The surface datasets tell a different story.

 

But anyway, I shouldn't have started this. It's a tired discussion that never leads to anything productive.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has us in a cold trough in the 8 to 10 day period.  

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we finally came up with a morning where everybody is chilly.  Ccurrently 46 at SEA, 48 at PDX, and 40 here.

[TT-SEA]

I sense a mild rainy pattern is coming...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few 30s around Western Oregon

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF ensemble mean is definitely warmer later on next week...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-0iJpoc.png

[ShawniganLake]

39F here, first sub 40 of the Fall.  More sheltered areas were as low as 36F on southern Vancouver Island. 

[ShawniganLake]

First Big snowfall of the season is set to begin in Northern BC later today. 

[TT-SEA]

Spectacular crystal clear morning here... looks like a really nice day ahead.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday looking nice up here as well on the WRF...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.60.0000.gif

[MossMan]

Sunday looking nice up here as well on the WRF...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.60.0000.gif

Even Long Beach doesn't look bad.

[Front Ranger]

I would take my chances with a 2010-11 type winter again.  It was decent and could have easily ended up even better.

 

From an Arctic outbreak standpoint, it was definitely better than decent. Top-tier Arctic outbreaks in November and February don't often happen the same winter.

 

I know, it's all about January, but that was still pretty impressive.

[Guest Winterdog]

37F here this morning. Just a beautiful day.

[Front Ranger]

A nice cool day to solidify a below normal month pretty much everywhere except BLI and AST.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of murky with a shallow inversion in Seattle... while crystal clear out here.  

 

57 at SEA and 65 here now.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

A nice cool day to solidify a below normal month pretty much everywhere except BLI and AST.

 

 

SEA was at 0.0 through yesterday and WFO SEA was at -0.1

 

Not exactly solidifying a below normal month around Seattle.   Going to be -0.1 or -0.2

 

Warmer than last September!    

 

August was exactly the same as in 2015.

[Front Ranger]

SEA was at 0.0 through yesterday and WFO SEA was at -0.1

 

Not exactly solidifying a below normal month around Seattle. Going to be -0.1 or -0.2

 

Warmer than last September!

 

August was exactly the same as in 2015.

Like I said, a below normal month pretty much everywhere.

 

If even SEA ends up below normal, even slightly, you know it's a legit cool month.

[Jesse]

Like I said, a below normal month pretty much everywhere.

We definitely need to focus on the 2-3 outliers more.

 

This September was colder than last for most places too.

[TT-SEA]

Focusing on the area where you live is not finding some outlier.

 

And SEA compared to SEA... September 2016 was warmer than in September 2015. Most stations up here were warmer than last September.

[BLI snowman]

OT, but Matthew is becoming quite the monster. 

[Jesse]

OT, but Matthew is becoming quite the monster.

So is seasonal depression Timothy.

[TT-SEA]

Lovely day to end the month...

 

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks really good.

[BLI snowman]

So is seasonal depression Timothy.

 

Lotta rain coming up. 

 

Jamaica getaway for him may be off the table, though.

[TT-SEA]

So is seasonal depression Timothy.

 

Sure Jesse.

 

I have never mentioned SEA stats.   Its has to do with seasonal depression!  

 

Ahhhh... you so want me to be unhappy.  

[TT-SEA]

Lotta rain coming up. 

 

Jamaica getaway for him may be off the table, though.

 

 

No doubt... going to be interesting to watch that storm.

 

12Z ECMWF is not really that wet at all next week.      I think the following week could be really wet... but the ECMWF ensemble control run puts up a huge western ridge that week (FWIW).

 

It will also be interesting to watch this pattern unfold.   

[Phil]

OT, but Matthew is becoming quite the monster.

Can't remember the last category 4 in the Atlantic.

[Deweydog]

OT, but Matthew is becoming quite the monster.

My mother could have told you that 35 years ago.

[TT-SEA]

Can't remember the last category 4 in the Atlantic.

 

 

There was one in 1992 right?