james1976 Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 hopefully we can get some consistency on the models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 hopefully we can get some consistency on the models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 So far its the GGEM/GFS that are showing the storm. Thinking Euro brings it back tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Still very cold on the GFS, but the widespread -20s remain north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO is not as impressive as the GFS is. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO is not as impressive as the GFS is. What day is that for? That looks like 6 PM tomorrow night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 What day is that for? That looks like 6 PM tomorrow night Made a mistake. EURO is worse than the GFS - sorry. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Made a mistake. EURO is worse than the GFS - sorry. Keep in mind I think the Euro has a nearshore bias, I remember it showed slightly colder lows last major cold snap near the lake, which is very questionable I would think. I will say -20F is probably the limit of what we could see within the UHIs that are Milwaukee or Chicago. Rural areas could be a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Keep in mind I think the Euro has a nearshore bias, I remember it showed slightly colder lows last major cold snap near the lake, which is very questionable I would think. I will say -20F is probably the limit of what we could see within the UHIs that are Milwaukee or Chicago. Rural areas could be a different story. It does. It was about 15° too low that one Monday morning - the 6th. This is looking fun for you! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM Hi-res seems to closer to reality. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM Hi-res seems to closer to reality. That's pretty brutal over here!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 i just went outside and walked around the yard. absolutley brutal. its cloudy again and snowing and the wind is like a train. blowing and drifting everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ever so slowly school cancellations keep coming in for Monday. I'm hoping that my school will cancel tomorrow, Tuesday looks like it will be canceled, but tomorrow could go either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hwkn Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter storm warning for most of the Chicago area til 6am according to WBBM TV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Winter storm warning for most of the Chicago area til 6am according to WBBM TV. That's true. Worse of it will probably be in the next 6 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday. 0% chance that happens, even Milwaukee is expecting 7F at midnight. It sucks, but them's the breaks. I despise midnight highs considering they have happened with every arctic outbreak this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hoping we can get subzero by midnight tonight so we can officially tack on a subzero high temp for Monday. 0% chance that happens, even Milwaukee is expecting 7F at midnight. It sucks, but them's the breaks. I despise midnight highs considering they have happened with every arctic outbreak this winter. Yeah that's not happening. It's still 11° here. My point forecast is up to 0° for Tuesday now. This might only end up being a 30 hour stretch of below zero temperatures.' Just noticed Racine canceled schools. Local schools are starting to close now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 ORD down to 9F, dropped 8 degrees in the last 90 min or so. It's going to be close, but prob wont be subzero by midnight. IMO, if we're going to be this cold, might as well set official high subzero for the day instead of single digits above zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just wanted to add that tonights surprise snow for SEMI is really over-achieving. Heavy Snow right now IMBY with 500 ft vis, been snowing an hour or so and i have 1.5 already..thinking i might squeek 3-4 out of this. Under no advisory and NOAA said half an inch. Assuming i get 3 inches, that 8 over the three storms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Down to -1 here. Winds still howling stronger than expected, so I think that's keeping temps from taking too big of a dip. I think we should be it drop a little bit once the winds start to slow down a little (currently sustained 30 mph), and even then, all if has to do is drop like 1 degree per hour to reach our predicted low. I still think we get a degree or two colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Joe Bastardi thinks the GFS is too warm for Tuesday morning, the the GGEM is too cold (stating the obvious there.).. He likes a blend of the Euro/NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO looking more interesting for the 31st time period 0z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png 12z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012612/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21.png Looks very similar to the GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO looking more interesting for the 31st time period 0z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_20.png 12z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012612/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png Yeah but now 00z GFS backed off on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wave might be to flat. Hate when these pacific waves come out like a hose. Usually very weak and fast. Need some amplification or could just be a minor event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, but euro went from showing nothing/dry to giving chicago 4-6 inches of snow at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, but euro went from showing nothing/dry to giving chicago 4-6 inches of snow at least With lack of amplification I doubt this be a big 6+ winter storm for anyone but I could see this leaving a band of 3-6 inches from Omaha area to Chicago and into northern Ohio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 From American ECMWF is onboard. 0.50"+ QPF from N. IL to DTW and then YYZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z Euro...glad to see the Euro come on board as expected. Yes its a flat wave, but doesn't mean there aint room for this to amplify. Very interested to see what this run shows for the Feb 4-5th storm system and if it shows a monster like the 00z GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like it might show a monster. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_34.png TX/OK border a nice low developing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh MY! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yup. Would be at least 20+ with everything combined on the euro for the chicago area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS has been showing the February 3rd-4th storm also, but it doesn't really amplify and it's more of a OV storm. I don't want to be a downer or anything, but this winter most of our storms have been staying suppressed. Hopefully this amplifies and turns into a big one for all of us here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh MY! Nice! That would be right on my birthday! Always seems to snow on that day. Cold this morning, but not brutal yet... Hovering around -1°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Staying steady at -5 with a -20 to -25 wind chill here. Pretty brutal, but this is nothing like it will be later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z NAM is looking stronger with the Thursday wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Got down to -10, which is what it is still at, and right on with the NWS prediction. But the winds also stayed stronger than they were predicting, which I still think prevented us from dropping even lower. Nonetheless, wind chills have been -35 or lower, and tonight is gonna be pretty nasty, not to mention all day today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Staying steady at -5 with a -20 to -25 wind chill here. Pretty brutal, but this is nothing like it will be later. Interesting that you're actually colder there than it is here. Today's high was 7°, so that only leaves tomorrow with the chance of remaining below zero. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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