stuffradio Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Looks like others are thinking it's peaked too. There's a changing of the guards regarding which location on the planet features the most anomalous forcing in the tropics. The El Nino standing wave is weakening in the appended December-January forecast, suggesting that El Nino has peaked in amplitude.https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1067528103344390145 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Looks like others are thinking it's peaked too.Interesting, since Ventrice has been very bullish on El Nino this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Ahh yes right on cue, a few days after OISSTv2 weeklies are ~+1.3C, CDAS is finally starting to catch up a few days later, similar to last month's NINO 3.4 spike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 SON should finish +.6 to .7. The strongest any Nino has peaked with a SON of .7 or lower is 1.1 (low end moderate), which happened in both 1968 and 1994. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 SON should finish +.6 to .7. The strongest any Nino has peaked with a SON of .7 or lower is 1.1 (low end moderate), which happened in both 1968 and 1994. Those analogs are nice. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Ahh yes right on cue, a few days after OISSTv2 weeklies are ~+1.3C, CDAS is finally starting to catch up a few days later, similar to last month's NINO 3.4 spike. Looks like it's dipping again, right on queue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 The ENSO 3.4 region is dipping back down again still. I could see it going back to neutral. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Weekly OISSTv2 dropped slightly but is at +1.2C, CDAS isn't really dipping back down either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Why has OISSTv2 been running warmer than both HADISST and CDAS this year? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like that prolonged WWB on the EPS weeklies (the one we debated over a few weeks ago) turned to be just another intraseasonal pass. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Big time cooling in ENSO region 1+2. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Weekly OISSTv2 dropped slightly but is at +1.2C, CDAS isn't really dipping back down either. The one-sided nature of your posts here may be starting to hurt your credibility. You seem dead-set on this event becoming significant, despite that looking increasingly unlikely. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 The one-sided nature of your posts here may be starting to hurt your credibility. You seem dead-set on this event becoming significant, despite that looking increasingly unlikely. That's ironic considering everyone else here is wishcasting for neutral ENSO or a La Nina it seems lol. You don't get +3 sigma AAM anomalies like this w/ "insignificant" ENSO events. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I did in fact call for a weak-moderate El Nino (based on SSTAs) to develop this winter as early as July and that's appearing to transpire atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is the extremely high integral of AAM solely a function of ENSO, though? I think the QBO/MQI constraining convection closer to the equator, along with the cycle of eddy transport of said westerly momentum poleward from the subtropics, is actually more to blame for the high AAM anomaly than the ENSO state (which is barely even discernible in the low pass VP200 anomalies, at this point). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 NOAA ERSSTv5 Oceanic Nino Index for SON was ~ +0.7C, this dataset has been reasonably close to the ENS ONI mean of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is the extremely high integral of AAM solely a function of ENSO, though? I think the QBO/MQI constraining convection closer to the equator, along with the cycle of eddy transport of said westerly momentum poleward from the subtropics, is actually more to blame for the high AAM anomaly than the ENSO state (which is barely even discernible in the low pass VP200 anomalies, at this point). This is a loaded question, of course it's not solely a function of ENSO, but you don't get strong, persistent +AAM anomalies like that without there being constructive ENSO interference to supplant the momentum, if we had a NINA/eQBO we may not even high that much +AAM to begin with you need both ENSO and the stratosphere to cooperate to generate the observed behavior we've seen lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 For instance, the cool season of 1985/86 also put up some outrageously high AAM anomalies, and that was a cold neutral/weak niña year. November of 1985 was particularly insane in that regard. As you said, AAM is complicated..you sort of have to spatially decode it to figure out what it’s actually telling you. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 For instance, the cool season of 1985/86 also put up some outrageously high AAM anomalies, and that was a cold neutral/weak niña year. November of 1985 was particularly insane in that regard. As you said, AAM is complicated..you sort of have to spatially decode it to figure out what it’s actually telling you. 1985-86 was strong but did so w/o any help from eQBO shear or ENSO early in the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 1985-86 was strong but did so w/o any help from eQBO shear or ENSO early in the winter. Oth, I'm sure having a beefy +PDO in the background helps a lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 We have the ENSO component (which was stronger during the early autumn), and the communicative feedbacks which arise from it (and are reinforced via extratropical/looping conduits). In this case, note the poleward propagation of +AAM via eddy transports w/ low latitude inception. That’s clearly QBO/MQI preconditioned, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 We have the ENSO component (which was stronger during the early autumn), and the peripherals which arise from it and are reinforced via extratropical/looping conduits. In this case, note the poleward propagation of +AAM via eddy transports w/ low latitude inception. That’s clearly QBO/MQI preconditioned, IMO. It's nice to see how intraseasonal forcing finally instigated the poleward AAM propagation here, you can already see a new westerly regime building in the tropics, it's also possible this one gets refracted back towards the equator. I'm honestly pretty curious to see how the overall system and tropical forcing alike responds to the considerable wave 1 fluxes onto the PV in the coming weeks. We're starting from a warmer base state than last year's split event in Feb 2018 (which arguably helped trigger the initial downwelling OKW thereafter in the Eq Pacific) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 That's ironic considering everyone else here is wishcasting for neutral ENSO or a La Nina it seems lol. You don't get +3 sigma AAM anomalies like this w/ "insignificant" ENSO events. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I did in fact call for a weak-moderate El Nino (based on SSTAs) to develop this winter as early as July and that's appearing to transpire atm.I don't think people in this thread have been wish casting a Nina or neutral. Weak +ENSO seems to be the consensus. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's nice to see how intraseasonal forcing finally instigated the poleward AAM propagation here, you can already see a new westerly regime building in the tropics, it's also possible this one gets refracted back towards the equator. I'm honestly pretty curious to see how the overall system and tropical forcing alike responds to the considerable wave 1 fluxes onto the PV in the coming weeks. We're starting from a warmer base state than last year's split event in Feb 2018 (which arguably helped trigger the initial downwelling OKW thereafter in the Eq Pacific) It still amazes me to see how strong the links between these extratropical basic state changes in the preceding winter are to state dependent noise forcing before the spring predictability barrier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's nice to see how intraseasonal forcing finally instigated the poleward AAM propagation here, you can already see a new westerly regime building in the tropics, it's also possible this one gets refracted back towards the equator. I'm honestly pretty curious to see how the overall system and tropical forcing alike responds to the considerable wave 1 fluxes onto the PV in the coming weeks. We're starting from a warmer base state than last year's split event in Feb 2018 (which arguably helped trigger the initial downwelling OKW thereafter in the Eq Pacific)I’m interested in the potential SSW as well, since it would profoundly interfere w/ the long term cycle of resonance in the tropical forcing/momentum transfer (we’re actually leaving the eQBO/narrow Hadley Cell regime now, as evidenced by the poleward propagation of +AAM, so a SSW would throw a massive wrench into what would otherwise be a fairly rhythmic pendulum). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 It still amazes me to see how strong the links between these extratropical basic state changes in the preceding winter are to state dependent noise forcing before the spring predictability barrier.I don’t know if you saw it, but the inception of the STJ/subtropical +AAM load late last summer was almost perfectly synchronized w/ the easterly downwell to the tropical tropopause. One of the more impressive cases I’ve seen, tbh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 I’m interested in the potential SSW as well, since it would profoundly interfere w/ the long term cycle of resonance in the tropical forcing/momentum transfer (we’re actually leaving the eQBO/narrow Hadley Cell regime now, as evidenced by the poleward propagation of +AAM, so a SSW would throw a massive wrench into what would otherwise be a fairly rhythmic pendulum). Ugh, I'm actually starting to get used to this eQBO/narrow Hadley Cell regime, would be nice if we get a momentary extension & reinvigoration of the BDC later into the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 I saved these images from October 2nd. This was epic..very little vertical/interhemispheric disconnect. 30mb 50mb 100mb 200mb 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 I’m with you there, lol. It was nice to finally have a cool mid/late autumn and early season snowfall. Stuff like that is once in a blue moon nowadays until Feb-Apr. I'm potentially staring down the barrel of one in the coming days, hard to not have tunnel vision beyond this given the rarity of seeing potential winter storms this early in my neck of the woods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 So far, so good. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Full context matters. It doesn’t look like a coherent MJO to me. Technically a wave-2 structure there (waves in W-IO & Pacific), with Indo-Pacific subsidence (which is more niño-esque). That said, November could be decent in the West due to the retracting jet/AAM deposition by Eurasia, with the poleward propagation via eddy transports becoming evident as well.This feels like something that would end up tightening the vortex into December, though. Don’t really expect big cold anywhere in the USA until after New Years, at this point. I disagree. I think there's a good shot at a major cold wave into the U.S. in mid November, and another one by late December. I guess we’ll see. I envision a run-of-the-mill cool pattern morphing into a zonal pattern by December with a strong vortex. I don't see any pattern locking in for long over the next couple months. More variability than usual. There was a major cold wave into the U.S. in mid November. Definitely pattern variability overall. We'll see if the late December major cold wave happens. To your credit, it does look like a zonal pattern developing this month for a bit, so you got that part right. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 The November cold wasn’t all that extraordinary, though. Didn’t even come close to 2014, let alone the big dogs back in the 1980s. Henceforth, I think “run of the mill cold pattern” is a more fitting description. Though maybe it was somewhat more intense than I originally thought. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 The November cold wasn’t all that extraordinary, though. Didn’t even come close to 2014, let alone the big dogs back in the 1980s. Henceforth, I think “run of the mill cold pattern” is a more fitting description. Though maybe it was somewhat more intense than I originally thought. Right...only brought some of the earliest snowfalls on record to some places and weekly anomalies in the -15 to -20 range. If that didn't qualify as a major cold wave, then apparently only a once in decades one does. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Right...only brought some of the earliest snowfalls on record to some places and weekly anomalies in the -15 to -20 range. If that didn't qualify as a major cold wave, then apparently only a once in decades one does. In terms of the anomalies for the month, it certainly wasn’t extraordinary. That cold shot into the Deep South during the middle of the month was very impressive, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 In terms of the anomalies for the month, it certainly wasn’t extraordinary. That cold shot into the Deep South during the middle of the month was very impressive, though. You're changing the goal posts. I never said it would be an extraordinarily cold month, I predicted a major cold wave in mid November. That did occur, as you just admitted. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 You're changing the goal posts. I never said it would be an extraordinarily cold month, I predicted a major cold wave in mid November. That did occur, as you just admitted.Wasn’t it the coldest thanksgiving in more than a century in the NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just one of many examples from the cold wave in the middle of the country this past month. St. Louis, MO with the daily departures bolded. 9 37 23 30 -20 10 35 18 27 -23 11 45 29 37 -12 12 40 27 34 -15 13 28 20 24 -24 14 32 17 25 -23 15 35 28 32 -15 Add it up and you have a weekly departure of about -19. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wasn’t it the coldest thanksgiving in more than a century in the NE. Not sure. There were multiple notable cold shots in November, but the one that affected the largest area for the longest time was the one from around the 10th to the 15th in the middle of the CONUS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wasn’t it the coldest thanksgiving in more than a century in the NE. Boston had its coldest November high since 1901. Portland had its coldest November high since 1875. It was an extremely impressive cold shot for New England. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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