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We're now entering the crucial window that will determine the momentum of the tropical circulation as we head deeper into 2014.

 

Right now, a massive kelvin wave (possibly the strongest wave in history) is propagating across the tropical pacific as the climate system begins a significant transition away from the 1998-2012 regime. This wave similar to the persistent wind forcing/wave event that jump started the 1997-98 super Niño. However, I'm not sold that we're in for a strong Niño at this time.

 

As I've been saying for a year now, I believe winter 2014-15 will feature a weak to moderate El Niño, probably either peaking early and/or featuring two peaks. I base this prediction on stratospheric, solar, and internal parameters..with the Sun/QBO coupling ultimately determining whether or not the upcoming ENSO warming during March/April/May will sustain or recoil into a chaotic mess.

 

This should be an interesting evolution, as the global circulatory network is now moving away from the dominating 1998-2012 regime.

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Hopefully, w/ this 2nd year El Nino, we'll be able to eradicate the current -EPO/+TNH dominated configuration & the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex because it is one of (if not the) primary reason why

If nothing else, it will be interesting to see what effect this MJO cycle has on the current global pattern.

Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is ce

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A Nino is somewhat likely I think. Yet another year to wait for a great winter here.

 

Do you think we are entering a more neutral type regime than 1998-2012? With such a profound weak solar cycle coming up I don't think we will have many El Nino years over the next 10 years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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A Nino is somewhat likely I think. Yet another year to wait for a great winter here.

 

Do you think we are entering a more neutral type regime than 1998-2012? With such a profound weak solar cycle coming up I don't think we will have many El Nino years over the next 10 years.

I think there's a chance we'll lose high-frequency ENSO altogether. We're seeing signs of that now. What's going on with the global climate right now will be communicated through the ENSO. However, ENSO is technically the system's mechanism to communicate and repair (internal) positive disequilibrium induced by the relevant external forcings. This is why ENSO did not exist until ~7000 years ago, as we began to lose some of the orbital/axial parameters that initially forced us into the Holocene interglacial.

 

However, the system can only respond through the ENSO method at a specific resonance, which peaks in potential at the Boreal winter solstice. This is why the ENSO is most pronounced during December-January.

 

Eventually, the system will no longer be able to effectively use the ENSO method to hold the interglacial circulation together as our Obliquity (Aka: axial tilt) continues to cycle down.

 

We will eventually snap the rubber band and lose ENSO..followed by major shifts in the Hadley Cells and tropical convective regimes.

 

Looking at where we are, this could happen any decade now. In past interglacials, the "big switch" always flips at the precessional aphelion during downward cycling obliquity. There are no exceptions to this rule.

 

This is exactly where we are now. The upcoming grand minimum has the potential to finish the job.

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Kelvin waves sometimes have upwellings and downwellings, where upwellings pull cold water from under the ocean floor, with downwellings pushing cold water down to the ocean floor, generating warm water over the ocean surface. We're currently inside this upwelling, thus the La Nina pattern. Soon, the warm pool will cover over the nino 3.4 area, possibly generating an early springtime el nino event.

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I think there's a chance we'll lose high-frequency ENSO altogether. We're seeing signs of that now. What's going on with the global climate right now will be communicated through the ENSO. However, ENSO is technically the system's mechanism to communicate and repair (internal) positive disequilibrium induced by the relevant external forcings. This is why ENSO did not exist until ~7000 years ago, as we began to lose some of the orbital/axial parameters that initially forced us into the Holocene interglacial.

 

However, the system can only respond through the ENSO method at a specific resonance, which peaks in potential at the Boreal winter solstice. This is why the ENSO is most pronounced during December-January.

 

Eventually, the system will no longer be able to effectively use the ENSO method to hold the interglacial circulation together as our Obliquity (Aka: axial tilt) continues to cycle down.

 

We will eventually snap the rubber band and lose ENSO..followed by major shifts in the Hadley Cells and tropical convective regimes.

 

Looking at where we are, this could happen any decade now. In past interglacials, the "big switch" always flips at the precessional aphelion during downward cycling obliquity. There are no exceptions to this rule.

 

This is exactly where we are now. The upcoming grand minimum has the potential to finish the job.

Phil Robert Filex has message a few times in the past on iceagenow that past ice ages have behaved alot like El ninos tropical forceing wise would be interesting seeing your thoughts on this.
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Phil Robert Filex has message a few times in the past on iceagenow that past ice ages have behaved alot like El ninos tropical forceing wise would be interesting seeing your thoughts on this.

In their late stages, yes.

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Hmm, the MJO could begin to start up and strengthen, and it should take aim for the the west coast soon.

 

 

As for the el nino, Jeff Masters has a belief that this upcoming el nino might be more extreme than the 97-98 one.

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So a strong El Niño is going to drive global temps through the roof, right?

I fail to understand how that jives with the global cooling predictions that permeate this forum.

1) First, Jeff Masters is an idiot, and we're not going to see a super-niño in 2015. There is no physical evidence for such a transition. I foresee an event reminiscent of 2006-07.

 

2) Second, multi-decadal trends in global temperatures are communicated through ENSO but are independent of it from year to year.

 

Here's my previous post:

 

What's going on with the global climate right now will be communicated through the ENSO. However, ENSO is technically the system's mechanism to communicate and repair (internal) positive disequilibrium induced by the relevant external forcings. This is why ENSO did not exist until ~7000 years ago, as we began to lose some of the orbital/axial parameters that initially forced us into the Holocene interglacial.

See here, ENSO amplitude/El Niño frequency through the Holocene:

 

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/2438/msbh.jpg

 

 

Reason for the enhanced ENSO activity during the late-interglacial stages is the loss of Obliquity..thus an increasing equator-to-pole gradient and perturbed equatorial-convective scheme. Eventually you get a strengthening and shrinkage of the Hadley Cells.

 

Here's the insolation shifts that have occurred as consequence of obliquitu, and where we're headed:

 

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/72/fowp.jpg

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1) First, Jeff Masters is an idiot, and we're not going to see a super-niño in 2015. There is no physical evidence for such a transition. I foresee an event reminiscent of 2006-07.

2) Second, multi-decadal trends in global temperatures are communicated through ENSO but are independent of it from year to year.

Here's my previous post:

See here, ENSO amplitude/El Niño frequency through the Holocene:http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/2438/msbh.jpg

Reason for the enhanced ENSO activity during the late-interglacial stages is the loss of Obliquity..thus an increasing equator-to-pole gradient and perturbed equatorial-convective scheme. Eventually you get a strengthening and shrinkage of the Hadley Cells.

Here's the insolation shifts that have occurred as consequence of obliquitu, and where we're headed:http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/72/fowp.jpg[/quote I agree with phil I dont by the super el nino talk.i can see how we can get a moderate el nino as phil said something like 2006-2007 or 2002-2003.the bigger key is how it sets up an west basen el nino has a far different result then a east basen event pattern wise.

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I am officially 100% worried we will have a significant El Nino later this year. We currently have a major subsurface warm pool moving eastward across the Pacific while at the same time a major WWB / negative SOI is taking place in the Equatorial Pacific atmosphere. It will be very hard for the atmosphere to squelch this Kelvin wave as it has so often the past couple of years.

 

It seems the atmosphere has been able to revert to a La Nina mode just as subsurface warm anomalies have surfaced over the last 2 years thus preventing any warm ENSO events. It would nearly take a miracle for that to happen this time. That having been said I would still be surprised to see anything more than a high end moderate / low end strong event. It's very hard to discount how hostile the atmosphere has been to El Ninos in the past several years.

 

Right now people in the NW should be prepared for a horribly boring 2014-15 winter. The good news is the normal tendency after strong El Ninos is to quickly revert to La Nina. Strong El Nino to La Nina transitions usually bring a pretty solid winter. That having been said I'm not sure I can handle another sheetty winter here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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A good El Nino event has a high chance of bringing a much wetter winter to CA, which would really help in alleviating the current drought. I am thinking a moderate to borderline strong event would be the most likely as opposed to a very strong 1997-98 type due to the current -PDO episode. Maybe this El Nino occurring during -PDO will heighten the chances of more interesting weather in the Pacific NW somewhat like 1968-69, instead of the +PDO El Nino events of the 1990's, 2002-03, and 2004-05. 1968-69 was very wet in Socal and Santiago Creek in Orange County was almost at bankfull during January during the height of the heavy storms.

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A good El Nino event has a high chance of bringing a much wetter winter to CA, which would really help in alleviating the current drought. I am thinking a moderate to borderline strong event would be the most likely as opposed to a very strong 1997-98 type due to the current -PDO episode. Maybe this El Nino occurring during -PDO will heighten the chances of more interesting weather in the Pacific NW somewhat like 1968-69, instead of the +PDO El Nino events of the 1990's, 2002-03, and 2004-05. 1968-69 was very wet in Socal and Santiago Creek in Orange County was almost at bankfull during January during the height of the heavy storms.

There have been a few moderate + events that have delivered cold to the NW and heavy rains to Cal. Two of our greatest December cold waves (1884 and 1972) were during major El Ninos. 1968-69 was probably one of the most perfect winters on record for action on the West Coast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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There have been a few moderate + events that have delivered cold to the NW and heavy rains to Cal. Two of our greatest December cold waves (1884 and 1972) were during major El Ninos. 1968-69 was probably one of the most perfect winters on record for action on the West Coast.

 

The 1972-73 El Nino was pretty wet down here as well and it occurred during the -PDO regime.

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1) First, Jeff Masters is an idiot, and we're not going to see a super-niño in 2015. There is no physical evidence for such a transition. I foresee an event reminiscent of 2006-07.

 

 

Was this the Jeff Masters' article you're referring to?  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

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Was this the Jeff Masters' article you're referring to? http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

No, that's a guest post by Dr. Ventrice.

 

And yes, hold the opinion that Mr. Masters is an alarmist dumbf**k.

 

Maybe it wasn't Masters who made the claim, but I remember someone with "status" predicting a super-El Niño, surpassing that of 1998.

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.... we're not going to see a super-niño in 2015. There is no physical evidence for such a transition. I foresee an event reminiscent of 2006-07.

 

Define your terms here.   Or expand with respect to your statement, otherwise. 

 

.. "physical evidence for".

 

What would this evidence look like to you, were it to show up on the horizonat whatever point. ?

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  • 2 weeks later...

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Connected to, … Or more apt, in effort to pull in, some other .. discussion relating to ENSO having been posted elsewhere within this broader forum, to this one more main and focused on it, .. more specifically, a general assertion made by this thread's main initiator, having suggested that with some of my past thinking where considering ENSO I had projected, or been .. "predicting", "a moderate El Niño" .. "for 2012-13, onward.", ….

.. Toward working to fill in the general context where considering these ideasor connect up, the two contexts, these ideas with the discussion more focused on the broader theme here, ….

.. I've included a set of links here just below, hopefully working to make all of these ideas more clear. This, with otherwise, and in main part more, my working to make my position and thinking - more in "fact", more clear here, with them in mind.

http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=22127
ENSO and my past thinking, mentioned, brought up in the PNW discussion sub-forum.
 
And then, my thinking (More in fact.) more current, posted more here within this thread previous, above.
http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=15733
http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=19157
 

In any case, ... More essentially, and with my own view where looking at the broader phenomenon of "ENSO" being a bit different where set beside that more conventional, ...

 

More basically, and if where looking at an "El Nino" more specifically, my certainly accepting the idea of its being in effect solidly where a greater warming of main SSTs through the Eastern and more out to the more Central equatorial Pacific is taking place, .. although with this idea where otherwise looking at a typical "La Nina" more, my tending not to look at the idea of a greater cooling of the both Eastern and by degrees more Central .. but instead more, a generally accompanying warming of SSTs through the Western equatorial Pacific, synonymous, … 

 

What I'm "expecting", to occur [more] .. between  2015 and 2017, is a more over-all increase in broader equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures. .. This idea, with where looking at ENSO as its appreciated more conventionally, more specificallyduring this period, one year this increase in main temperatures being focused more within the main Eastern and more Central Pacific, and then in another, significantly warmer main SSTs being focus more westward through the Western and more Central, equatorial Pacific. 

 
 
(.. Welcome, to 2012-13.)

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  • 2 weeks later...

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Is a Super El Nino Coming Next Winter?

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/04/is-super-el-nino-coming-next-winter.html

 

.. A general rundown of the potential, ENSO focused, as of the beginning of April.

 

As elucidated by Prof. Cliff Mass. University of Washington, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mass.html

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(.. cross-reference.)
 
 

Strange configuration of warmer water in the ENSO region... seems centered unusually far north compared to a typical Nino.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif


I'm confused. What are you saying more specifically here Tim. ?

There doesn't appear to be anything, more "centered", anywhere on this map, apart from the NNE sitting gyre within the Northern Gulf of Alaska.
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

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Here is what I think of as a normal Nino configuration in the ENSO region... warm water centered over the equator.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.12.31.2009.gif

 

 

The current configuration is different in the ENSO region... warmer water to the north of the equator and cooler to the south:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

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.. I see. (Terrible wording. No offense.)

 

What I see, is perhaps the very beginning (Not perhaps even carrying through to fuller fruition.), of a more Nino like circumstance.

 

And with this, ... warmer waters, both those that you're looking at apparently, and looked at more altogether as a whole, through the main Northern (North of the equator. Main Eastern to more Central.) Pacific, warming gradually. This set against a still relatively cool Southern Pacific (South of the equator.). And with either condition, resulting mainly, related and connected to what's being let / or otherwise looked at coaxed, away from main cold storage, through higher latitudesi.e. both north and south.

 

.. Broader timeframe, I'm expecting a better consolidation of cold stores both north and south, with a general warming of the broader equatorial Pacific looked at as a whole more over-all.

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Haha, almost looks like an SST sandwich at the equator. ......


..though in reality [...] the system [...] started preparing for this Niño response back in summer 2011, when I first predicted it.

Now that it's become obvious, people are hyping it up like nothing I've seen before.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24823
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24885

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24886

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Here are WeatherPhil's thoughts.  For some reason, he posts them in monthly PNW discussions.

 

"

Another MJO event gathering. Still no sign of another big WWB regime, but trades will be definitely weakening this week. EPAC warming (Niño 1-2-3) will occur in 5-10 days, as the KW surfaces with the decline of the trades, and is warmed by the Sun at the surface.

2) Walker cell still centered very far east, as it has been for the past 9 months. Definite El Niño precursor. The global circulations have been in El Niño mode since January 29th. Classic case of atmospheric-lead .

3) The QBO is tanking at 30mb and the tropopause is lowering over the tropics. This will accelerate the transition process in the tropics and perhaps prevent the El Niño from getting a firm grip on the MJO and the meridional cells. Very reminiscent of the 1960s El Niños..

Being foolish and taking El Niño/QBO alone (as some do), using the ECMWF ENSO-recon, for next winter we get:

2009-10, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59, 1951-52

Adjusting for solar, health of Brewer-Dobson O^3 flux, and origin/dynamic construction of the ENSO, you're left with:

2009-10, 1986-87, 1976-77, 1968-69, 1965-66, 1958-59.
"

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No need for WWBs as the pool of unusually warm water has surfaced... Water temperatures at Niño regions are 1°C+ and continuing... This wind map shows a weakening in trade winds, with an already westerly flow in the Niño 4 regions... I believe the heating of the surface turns the easterly trades around into westerlies (as can easily be seen from the Niño 4 region.

 

If we can receive just a little westerly wind nudge, the rest of the subsurface warm pool will surface and and dramatically heat up. This is reminiscent of the heating of April 1997...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif

 

While the winds are a chicken and egg type of situation (westerlies aid warm water surfacing; warm water surfacing aids westerlies) I still believe we will take step towards an El Niño state. Good for California's good-for-nothing drought.

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No need for WWBs as the pool of unusually warm water has surfaced... Water temperatures at Niño regions are 1°C+ and continuing... This wind map shows a weakening in trade winds, with an already westerly flow in the Niño 4 regions... I believe the heating of the surface turns the easterly trades around into westerlies (as can easily be seen from the Niño 4 region.

 

If we can receive just a little westerly wind nudge, the rest of the subsurface warm pool with surface and and dramatically heat up. This is reminiscent of the heating of April 1997...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.28.2014.gif

 

While the winds are a chicken and egg type of situation (westerlies aid warm water surfacing; warm water surfacing aids westerlies) I still believe we will take step towards an El Niño state. Good for California's good-for-nothing drought.

Westerlies do not aid "warm water surfacing". Westerlies induce KW activity, which cause downwelling on their frontal flanks...which warms the subsurface. Thing is, the "warm" subsurface waters are still colder than the SSTs. The anomaly charts do not indicate actual temperatures.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif

 

Easterlies (trade winds) induce upwelling off the South-American coast. Thus bring the colder waters at-depth to the surface.

 

We call it the "thermocline". The depth of the thermocline means a lot in terms of oceanic KW effectiveness, and the potential for convective coupling (though the stratosphere is a bigger player there). As of right now, the warmth in the EPAC is quite shallow. You get into cold waters after 75M or so. A surge in the trade winds may very well bring that to the surface:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

Unless the trade winds weaken, the warm pool will continue to shrivel up, and SSTs will cool after a brief warm-up.

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… In an unparalleled environmental disaster of apocalyptic scale and that began approx. 250 millions years at the end of the Permian Era … focused in what is now Siberia and covering an area larger than Western Europe, … relentless floods and volcanic eruptions on a scale which hasn't occurred in human experience, and having gone on for hundreds of thousands of years, … the molten rock of those eruptions ignited large deposits of coal, while at the same time having released carbon monoxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. …. All causing the earth to heat up, and working to have stopped the ocean currents from circulating. 
 
Paraphrased, from Neil DeGrasse Tyson's "Comos", season one, episode two.

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... Unless the trade winds weaken, the warm pool will continue to shrivel up, and SSTs will cool after a brief warm-up.

 

".. The new Phonebook's out., ... The new ..." (!!)

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.5.2014.gif

 

.. Wonder what those "fisherman, down in Ecuador and Peru", will actually be sayin', come Christmas-time this year. ?

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No WWBs anywhere in sight, subsurface warm pool is fading and shriveling up, 30 day SOI continues to be positive, a decent negative AAM spike is expected to develop, and the MJO is progged to be in regions more favorable for La Nina than El Nino over the next two weeks. In short...this potential Nino is in trouble.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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There's another KW in the WPAC, but yes I'll agree that a super-niño was never on the table. An El Niño of some sort is likely though, simply based on the Solar-QBO-in internal-resonance harmonics.

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There's another KW in the WPAC, but yes I'll agree that a super-niño was never on the table. An El Niño of some sort is likely though, simply based on the Solar-QBO-in internal-resonance harmonics.

It doesn't appear that any KW is anything near the magnitude of the last one. The subsurface maps indicate nothing but normal or colder than normal subsurface temps over the western Pacific.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Kind of makes you wonder what the CFS is smoking. The recent runs show an epic Nino in spite of the fact the current indices are not even close to where they were at this point in years like 1982 and 1997. An epic event is pretty much off the table now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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-


Kind of makes you wonder what the CFS is smoking. ...

 
.. I don't think anything currently available ("smokable", or otherwise.), is that good at projecting how things will go "Niño" wise, more specifically, myself. 
 
And think that the main "anomalies" graphics, are about the best view, into the potential. This as, as I've suggested above, with their working the best in my view, to indicated and show, main and greater surface waters current circulation.
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.15.2014.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

Main "colder" surface waters, circulation. And it certainly appears to be diminishing. /  Leaving room for a generally warmer circumstance looked at more "over-all" where considering the broader equatorial Pacific. (?) (Toke.?)

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The death of El Nino?

 

I would have to call this MJO forecast unprecedented during a period where a Nino is trying to develop.  It couldn't be a much more Ninaish forecast.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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